Championship relegation odds and predictions: Is There Hidden Value in the Fight for Survival?

The 2024–25 EFL Championship campaign is rapidly approaching its final stretch, and with eight games left to play, the intensity at both ends of the table has reached fever pitch.Below is a breakdown of the key contenders, along with the latest odds and our best bet.

Championship relegation odds & betting tips

Is There Hidden Value in the Fight for Survival in the Championship?

• Cardiff have taken 39.5 points this season, but their expected return stands at just 40.9, indicating no overperformance cushion.
• Luton are projected to go down in 81.6% of Opta’s 10,000 simulations, with five of their last eight games against top-nine opposition.
• Plymouth have spent 136 days in the relegation zone—more than any other side—and are six points adrift with just eight matches left.

Our Best Bet

The 2024–25 EFL Championship campaign is rapidly approaching its final stretch, and with eight games left to play, the intensity at both ends of the table has reached fever pitch. While the promotion battle continues to capture the headlines, the real drama arguably lies at the bottom, where a clutch of clubs find themselves nervously calculating the points required to ensure survival. With the margins razor-thin and no side yet mathematically relegated, it’s the perfect moment to assess which clubs are most vulnerable, which ones could mount a late escape, and crucially, where the betting value lies in the relegation market.

The relegation odds reflect the weight of pressure bearing down on the bottom sides. At the foot of the division, Plymouth Argyle are entrenched in 24th, having spent 136 days in the drop zone—more than any other side. Unsurprisingly, bookmakers now have them at 1/16 to go down, with the Opta supercomputer forecasting their relegation probability at an alarming 96.7%. It would take an almighty turnaround to shift the momentum, especially with just eight games left to bridge a six-point gap to safety.

Just above them, Luton Town are on the brink of a disastrous double-drop. Fresh from Premier League relegation last season, Luton have failed to recover in the Championship, taking only four points from safety. Their upcoming fixtures offer little comfort either, with five of their last eight matches coming against sides currently sitting in the top nine. That schedule, combined with the sheer difficulty of clawing back ground this late, places them at 2/7 for the drop. According to Opta’s latest 10,000-run simulation, they are projected to be relegated in 81.6% of outcomes.

One point above Luton sit Derby County, whose situation has taken a sharp twist. Under new management, they’ve stitched together three wins on the bounce and reduced the deficit to safety to just a single point. The resurgence under John Eustace has not gone unnoticed by the markets either, with their relegation odds now 11/8, reflecting a more optimistic outlook than a few weeks ago. Still, they remain firmly embroiled in a battle where one misstep could prove decisive.

The drama thickens as we move up the standings, where Cardiff City and Stoke City sit perilously just one point above Derby, both with 39 points. Cardiff, in particular, are now just 13/8 to go down, while Stoke follow closely at 7/4. Both sides are within striking distance of the drop, and though they currently hold a slender lead, the pressure is mounting as they enter a challenging run-in.

Here is a look at the latest relegation odds:

Team	Odds (Relegation)
Plymouth	1/16
Luton Town	2/7
Derby County	11/8
Cardiff City	13/8
Stoke City	7/4
Oxford United	5/2
Portsmouth	10/1
Hull City	14/1

“Odds are correct at time of post and subject to change

Given how congested the bottom half of the table has become, it’s difficult to categorically rule out any team up to 17th-placed Portsmouth. Even Oxford United, who sit level with Pompey on 42 points, are priced at 5/2—highlighting how little separates the middle pack from those in freefall.

Yet perhaps the most underpriced threat amongst the pack is Cardiff City, who represent the Best Bet for relegation at 13/8.

Best Bet: Cardiff City to be Relegated – 13/8

Amongst the myriad of teams flirting with danger, Cardiff City stand out not just for their league position, but more so for their troubling underlying metrics and unforgiving fixture run-in. While the Bluebirds currently sit one point above the drop, their remaining eight matches paint a grim picture. They face a brutal closing stretch, including ties against five sides with superior Opta team ratings, most notably Leeds United, Coventry City, and Middlesbrough—all of whom are among the league’s most efficient sides based on expected points.

Cardiff’s own performances offer little reason for optimism. Based on the second visual, they’ve collected around 39.5 actual points, while their expected points tally (from shot-based xG simulations) stands at just 40.9, showing they’ve performed almost exactly in line with expectation. In contrast to teams like Sunderland or Sheffield United, who are significantly outperforming their xG projections, Cardiff have no such margin for error.

The other alarming factor is Cardiff’s fixture difficulty. According to Opta’s rating model, their final eight fixtures collectively rank as the 8th hardest of all teams, with a challenging visit to Leeds, followed by back-to-back away trips to Coventry and Middlesbrough. Meanwhile, they must also face relegation rivals Stoke City and Derby County—matches which could ultimately decide their fate.

Given how tight the margins are, and with Derby on an upward trend and Luton expected to fight until the last whistle, Cardiff could easily slip into 22nd by the final day. At odds of 13/8, the price offers considerable value for a side whose metrics, fixture list, and fragile standing all point towards a perilous conclusion to the season.

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