The 2024 edition of La Vuelta a España promises to be one of the most intriguing and unpredictable Grand Tours of the year. Spanning 3,265 kilometres and featuring an exhausting 52,000 metres of climbing, this year’s race will test even the most seasoned riders with its mountainous terrain and challenging stages. The absence of cycling giants such as Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, and Remco Evenepoel opens the field significantly, creating a race that could be anyone’s to win.
This analysis will delve into the key riders, their current form, team dynamics, and potential outcomes of the race.
Vuelta a Espana Predictions and Best Bets
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Can Thymen Arensman Climb to the Top? A Battle for GC Supremacy in La Vuelta 2024
Key Stats
52,000 metres of climbing: The 2024 Vuelta a España features the greatest combined elevation gain of any Grand Tour since the 20th Century.
Two-time trials: Thymen Arensman’s key opportunity to secure a top 10 GC finish lies in the two individual time trials, where he has consistently excelled.
Three-time winner: Primož Roglič, chasing a fourth Vuelta title, faces an uncertain challenge with no competitive racing since his injury at the Tour de France.
Course Breakdown and Key Challenges
The 2024 Vuelta a España, starting in Lisbon, Portugal, presents a gruelling three-week challenge. The parcours is dominated by mountains and hilly terrains, with a rare flat stage, five medium mountain stages, eight mountain stages, and two individual time trials. This layout naturally favours climbers and all-rounders, leaving pure sprinters with limited opportunities. The race concludes with a 24.6-kilometre time trial, reminiscent of the dramatic finales seen in past Grand Tours.
The lack of sprint stages means that the competition for the Maillot Rojo (the leader’s red jersey) will be intense, especially with such a punishing route. Riders will need to be at their best in the mountains and time trials to remain in contention.
The Absence of Pogacar and Its Impact
Tadej Pogacar’s decision to skip this year’s Vuelta after his historic double at the Giro d’Italia and Tour de France changes the dynamic entirely. His absence removes a dominant force from the equation, giving other riders a genuine chance at victory. With Pogacar not lining up, the race is wide open, and we could see new contenders emerge as the weeks progress.
Team Visma | Lease a Bike: A Strong Defence
Reigning champion Sepp Kuss returns to defend his title with Team Visma | Lease a Bike. Kuss, who was pivotal in his team’s success last year, will be supported by a robust squad, including the likes of Cian Uijtdebroeks and Steven Kruijswijk, who are expected to excel in the mountains.
The American’s biggest challenge, however, is his lack of recent Grand Tour racing due to a illness absence from the Tour de France. While he did secure a victory at the Vuelta a Burgos recently, the question remains whether he can sustain top form across three gruelling weeks. A podium finish would still be a remarkable result for Kuss, solidifying his status as a General Classification (GC) contender.
Red Bull – BORA – Hansgrohe and Primož Roglič
Primož Roglič, a three-time Vuelta winner, leads the charge for Red Bull – BORA – Hansgrohe. Despite a disappointing Tour de France marred by a vertebrae fracture, Roglič is a formidable contender.
However, his recent form is uncertain, and he enters the Vuelta without any racing since his injury. This lack of competitive preparation might hinder his chances of claiming a fourth Vuelta title. Nevertheless, Roglič’s experience and resilience cannot be discounted, and with a strong team including Aleksandr Vlasov and Florian Lipowitz, he remains a key player in the GC battle.
UAE Team Emirates: Almeida and Yates Duo
UAE Team Emirates boasts one of the strongest rosters in this year’s race. João Almeida, who finished fourth in the Tour de France, and Adam Yates, winner of the 2024 Tour de Suisse, are expected to lead the team’s GC ambitions. Almeida, in particular, has consistently performed well in Grand Tours, with his best GC result being third at the Giro d’Italia. With the race starting in his home country, Portugal, Almeida will be highly motivated to perform well, especially in the early stages.
Yates, known for his climbing prowess, will also be a key figure, and the Yates-Almeida combination could prove to be a formidable challenge for other GC contenders. Their team is well-rounded, with support from riders like Jay Vine and Pavel Sivakov, which could give them the edge in team tactics throughout the race.
INEOS Grenadiers and Thymen Arensman: A Top 10 Prospect
Thymen Arensman, fresh from signing a new contract with INEOS Grenadiers, has shown significant promise in recent Grand Tours. Despite a shaky start in the 2024 Giro d’Italia, where he lost time early on, Arensman recovered well, particularly in the time trials, to finish sixth overall. His ability to perform in the mountains and against the clock makes him a strong candidate for a top 10 finish at this year’s Vuelta.
Arensman’s previous success at the Vuelta, where he finished fifth in 2022 after winning the Queen Stage, adds to his credentials. With two time trials in this year’s race, Arensman is well-positioned to leverage his strengths. Moreover, the mountainous terrain suits his riding style, allowing him to gain time on his rivals in the high-altitude stages.
Predictions for Vuelta a Espana
Given the analysis of the current form, team dynamics, and the demanding course of the 2024 Vuelta a España, Thymen Arensman stands out as a strong candidate for a top 10 finish in the General Classification. His ability to perform in time trials and on mountainous stages, coupled with his experience in previous Grand Tours, positions him well for success in this race.
Arensman’s previous top 10 finishes in the Giro d’Italia and his resilience in recovering from early setbacks demonstrate his capability to compete at the highest level. With the support of INEOS Grenadiers and a parcours that plays to his strengths, Arensman is poised to secure a place among the top contenders in this year’s Vuelta.
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