Cycling betting tips: Tour de France stage ten predictions, preview and best bets

As the peloton prepares for Stage 10 of the 2025 Tour de France, spectators can look forward to an intriguing afternoon of racing on Monday. Read on to find a detailed preview and the best bet recommendation, and don’t forget to take advantage of the selected betting offers listed below to maximise your betting value.

Cycling betting tips: Tour de France stage ten predictions

Will France Celebrate Bastille Day with a Breakaway Triumph in the Massif Central?

• Stage 10 features eight categorised climbs and a total vertical gain of over 4,400m, making it the Tour’s first full climbing test.
• The final climb to Le Mont-Dore averages 8% over 3.3km, suiting explosive GC riders like Jonas Vingegaard.
• With minimal flat sections, the relentless terrain reduces recovery time, favouring strong all-rounders over opportunistic breakaway riders.

Our Best Bet

In a break from tradition, the usual rest day has been postponed to accommodate Bastille Day, the French national holiday, ensuring that the riders take on their tenth consecutive stage without respite.

The day’s route unfolds over 165.3 kilometres, stretching from Ennezat to the summit finish at Le Mont-Dore Puy de Sancy. While not as formidable as the high-altitude Pyrenean passes to come, this is nonetheless the Tour’s first major climbing challenge. With eight categorised ascents—seven of them rated category two—it’s a relentless profile that will punish the legs and expose any signs of weakness among those harbouring general classification ambitions.

This section of the Massif Central doesn’t offer towering peaks, but the accumulation of climbs and near-constant elevation changes mean that the stage is expected to be decided either by a strong breakaway or by a well-timed attack from one of the main GC riders. The symbolism of the French holiday will also encourage domestic riders to animate proceedings, making the early fight to form the breakaway particularly fierce.

After nine stages of varied terrain and strategies, the mood of the peloton is one of anticipation. With a rest day on the horizon and bigger battles awaiting in the Pyrenees, today might not be decisive in the overall standings—but it is a dangerous day where mistakes or tired legs can cost valuable seconds. For the first time in this year’s Tour, we’ll get a glimpse into who is climbing best—and who is fading.

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Best Bet for Today’s Stage: Jonas Vingegaard to Win Stage 10

At BettingTips4You, we believe that one well-reasoned selection per event is far more useful than multiple conflicting tips. Our approach is rooted in providing clarity and precision, giving punters a clear view of where the value lies. That’s why our Best Bet for Stage 10 is Jonas Vingegaard to win.

Why Backing Jonas Vingegaard Today Makes Sense

The route’s profile may not contain any high mountain passes, but it suits a rider like Jonas Vingegaard perfectly—sharp climbs, constant changes in rhythm, and a summit finish that rewards timing and explosiveness. The Visma–Lease a Bike leader has remained tactically quiet so far in this Tour, but the terrain on offer during Stage 10 could tempt a more assertive display from the Dane.

It’s worth remembering that Vingegaard’s climbing talent has long been evident, but it is stages like this—with repeated efforts and relatively short, punchy ascents—where he can fully exploit his strengths. The final rise to Le Mont-Dore Puy de Sancy, while only 3.3km long, averages a painful 8% and comes after over 4,400m of climbing. With many legs in the bunch already feeling the effects of the opening week, this could be where the defending champion finally makes his mark.

What makes the timing particularly intriguing is that Vingegaard has historically performed well in the Massif Central, and there’s little reason to believe he won’t be up there again. While other GC hopefuls may adopt a conservative strategy—preserving energy ahead of the Pyrenees—Vingegaard may see this as a prime opportunity to test his rivals and potentially grab a psychological advantage.

Adding to his appeal is the absence of major flat sections throughout the stage. That means minimal chances for teams to reset or recover once the action kicks off. With Remco Evenepoel and Tadej Pogacar likely to shadow each other closely, it could create just enough room for Vingegaard to slip away on the Col de la Croix Saint Robert or even during the final climb. His explosive climbing ability, combined with elite descending and race-reading intelligence, make him one of the few GC contenders genuinely capable of seizing victory in a stage that doesn’t perfectly suit breakaway artists.

With most teams either reeling from crashes or recalibrating their goals, Visma–Lease a Bike have the depth and discipline to control the race and deliver Vingegaard to the crucial moment in an ideal position. And when that moment comes, it would take a brave punter to bet against him delivering a Bastille Day blow to his rivals.

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