Cycling betting tips: Tour de France stage five predictions, preview and best bets

The Tour de France continues its journey through northern France with a significant shift in style as stage five brings the race’s first individual time-trial. Read on to find a detailed preview and the best bet recommendation, and don’t forget to take advantage of the selected betting offers listed below to maximise your betting value.

Cycling betting tips: Tour de France stage five predictions

Will the Battle for Yellow Begin in Earnest Today in Caen?

• The 33km time-trial in Caen is the longest opening-week TT at the Tour since 2012, favouring pure specialists over GC riders.
• Remco Evenepoel was distanced by Pogacar and Vingegaard on Tuesday’s climb, raising doubts over his peak condition.
• Edoardo Affini’s odds of 28-1 reflect underestimated value for a power course he’s physically and tactically primed for.

Our Best Bet

After the spectacle in Rouen, where Tadej Pogacar reminded everyone of his explosive strength on steep ramps, the peloton turns its focus to raw power and aerodynamics over 33km of flat, fast terrain in and around Caen.

The time-trial specialists will finally have their moment after four varied stages that offered little room for the pure testers. Riders will leave the centre of Caen, looping northwest through open countryside before tracing a mostly straight route back to the city. The terrain is virtually devoid of sharp corners or elevation changes, providing an ideal setting for those who excel on the flat against the clock.

With time checks at Cambes-en-Plaine, Thaon, and Gruchy, the race will offer constant updates on who is setting the pace. Remco Evenepoel enters as the overwhelming favourite due to his recent dominance in this discipline, but there’s intrigue further down the list. Jonas Vingegaard and Pogacar are locked together near the top of the general classification, and their performances today could provide an early indication of who has the upper hand in this year’s edition.

For fans of the general classification, this is more than a time-trial—it’s the first major separation point, a rare chance for gaps to form on a flat stage. With Mathieu van der Poel still in yellow but expected to lose it here, today’s stage has the potential to turn the GC battle on its head.

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Best Bet for Stage 5: Edoardo Affini to Win Stage Five

Here at BettingTips4You, we stand by the principle that less is more when it comes to betting guidance. We don’t overload our readers with multiple options—we identify the single strongest pick of the day so that there’s no confusion and full clarity on what we believe is the value play. Today, our sole and most compelling selection is Edoardo Affini to win Stage Five of the Tour de France.

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Affini might not sit atop the betting boards like Evenepoel or Vingegaard, but the Italian time-trial specialist finds himself perfectly suited to this profile. With the course offering little in the way of technical challenges and no significant climbing to disrupt rhythm, the flat and straightforward layout around Caen is designed for a powerful engine—and that’s precisely where Affini excels.

The 33-kilometre route plays directly into the hands of riders with sustained wattage and efficient aerodynamic positioning, both of which are key strengths in Affini’s repertoire. Unlike the general classification contenders, who must balance performance with broader strategic considerations, Affini can approach this stage with tunnel vision. This is likely his best—and perhaps only—opportunity in the Tour to target a result purely for himself before returning to domestique duties for Jonas Vingegaard in the mountains to come.

Crucially, the absence of Filippo Ganna removes one of the key benchmarks in this discipline. While Evenepoel remains the bookies’ pick, his performance on the climbs in Rouen suggested he might not be at full throttle just yet. He wasn’t able to follow the accelerations of Pogacar and Vingegaard on the Rampe Saint-Hilaire, and that minor drop-off in condition could matter over 33 kilometres of flat out effort.

Affini, meanwhile, has had a relatively quiet start to the race, conserving energy and waiting for the right moment to strike. If there’s ever a stage made for him, this is it—and at the current odds, he represents the strongest combination of course compatibility and potential value. He will relish the wide, fast roads that offer a pure test of sustained speed rather than intricate bike handling or short bursts of explosiveness. With the top riders focused on their broader GC ambitions, don’t be surprised if a motivated specialist like Affini sneaks through for a memorable win.

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