Cycling betting tips: Tour de France stage eleven predictions, preview and best bets

As the Tour de France rolls into its second week, all eyes turn to Toulouse for what promises to be an intriguing mid-race showdown. Read on to find a detailed preview and the best bet recommendation, and don’t forget to take advantage of the selected betting offers listed below to maximise your betting value.

Cycling betting tips: Tour de France stage eleven predictions

Will Late Climbs Derail the Sprinters in Toulouse?

• The Côte de Pech David is only 800m long but rises at a fierce 12.4% average, discouraging pure sprinters from staying in contention.
• Wout van Aert recently finished second in a sprint behind Jonathan Milan, underlining his current speed and sharpness.
• Four categorised climbs in the final 46km will wear down the bunch and favour versatile riders with strong climbing legs and sprint finishes.

Our Best Bet

Following Tuesday’s rest day, Stage 11 launches the peloton back into action with a 157km loop beginning and ending in the pink-bricked city, setting the stage for a transition between flatter roads and the towering Pyrenees to come.

Though the high mountains remain just beyond the horizon, the route today is no easy return to racing. Riders will confront a deceptively difficult profile that includes five categorised ascents, four of which are packed into the final 46km. While the earlier part of the stage could allow some to settle back into rhythm, the finale will undoubtedly be selective, particularly with the Côte de Pech David lurking just 9km from the finish. This short but brutally steep climb, averaging a punishing 12.4% gradient over 800m and spiking into the 20s in places, could be a decisive point for both attackers and those sprinters who can cope with the elevation.

Toulouse has historically delivered bunch finishes, but this version of the city stage may demand something different. The likelihood of oppressive heat, combined with a jagged route and the knowledge that mountain torture awaits on Thursday, might see tactics shift. With breakaway hopefuls sniffing opportunity and sprinters’ teams weighing the risks, there is a tightrope to walk between discipline and ambition. The technical descent after the final kicker into the city centre could allow chasers to reconnect, or it might allow a strong puncher to seal a solo win.

The tension is palpable: a rare sprinters’ chance before a mountainous stretch could either be tightly controlled or blow wide open. Either way, it sets up a gripping spectacle.

---

Best Bet for Stage 11: Wout van Aert to Win

Here at BettingTips4You, we pride ourselves on highlighting one premium selection per stage, ensuring readers receive the most considered and data-driven advice. We prioritise clarity over clutter and accuracy over abundance, making it easy to follow and measure performance. For today’s action, our Best Bet is Wout van Aert to win Stage 11 at 6/1.

Van Aert stands out as the most viable contender to profit from a finale that won’t favour the purists of sprinting. His remarkable ability to manage steep gradients and still produce a searing turn of speed makes him uniquely suited to the profile on offer in Toulouse.

Why Van Aert Is the Right Choice Today

Stage 11’s terrain is practically tailored for a rider with Van Aert’s hybrid strengths. The Belgian has already shown signs of sharp sprinting legs, finishing second behind Milan on Stage 8, a result which confirmed that his form is still peaking. The day’s final test – the Côte de Pech David – is just long and steep enough to create a selection, thinning the field and casting doubt on whether the likes of Jonathan Milan or Tim Merlier will survive to contest the line. Pure sprinters are likely to be jettisoned if the pace intensifies on the climb, opening the door for more versatile fast men.

Van Aert’s team have every reason to allow him a free role today. With the mountains on the horizon, he is expected to transition back into support duties for Jonas Vingegaard later in the week. But this is the moment for him to shine solo. Boosted by Simon Yates’ triumph on Monday, morale in the Visma-Lease a Bike camp is high, and tactical freedom could tip the balance in Van Aert’s favour.

Moreover, this stage’s contours bear strong resemblance to his 2022 victory in Calais – a similarly undulating route that required both resilience and racecraft. His tactical acumen, combined with top-tier engine power, puts him in pole position to take advantage of any selection that forms on the Côte de Pech David or the descent that follows. Should he crest the hill within reach of the leaders, he is arguably the fastest finisher among them.

Enhance your betting game with our daily free betting tips, predictions, and accumulators.

For more betting tips and news, check out:

• Cycling Tips
• Our Comprehensive Betting News

Don’t forget to visit our Free Bets page for the best possible value as well as our Predictions.

Subscribe To Our Newsletter For Exclusive Tips

Want to have exclusive tips from experts tipsters delivered right into your inbox? Subscribe Now To Our Newsletter. We will never spam, we fully respect your privacy!

Selected Bookmakers Offers