Cycling betting tips: Tour de France stage 21 predictions, preview and best bets

The 2025 Tour de France draws to a close this Sunday with Stage 21, and while the route returns to the French capital after a detour last year, tradition has been disrupted. Paris is once again the setting, but the final stage is far from predictable. Read on to find a detailed preview and the best bet recommendation, and don’t forget to take advantage of the selected betting offers listed below to maximise your betting value.

Cycling betting tips: Tour de France stage 21 predictions

Is the Champs-Élysées Finale No Longer a Sprinters’ Playground?

• Kaden Groves has already claimed three Grand Tour stage wins in 2025 across the Giro, Vuelta and now the Tour.
• The final Montmartre climb appears just 8km from the finish, reshaping the usual flat-stage script.
• Sprinters like Jonathan Milan and Tim Merlier may be disadvantaged by the triple ascent of the Côte de la Butte Montmartre.

Our Best Bet

With the race set to begin at 16:10 from Mantes-la-Ville and conclude around 19:26 on the Champs-Élysées, this year’s finale carries an added layer of complexity thanks to the inclusion of three ascents of the Côte de la Butte Montmartre in the final 40 kilometres.

Historically, the last day in Paris has served as a ceremonial roll for the general classification leader—this year, Tadej Pogacar—and a fast and furious sprint for the specialists. However, 2025 introduces a fresh dynamic. The cobbled gradients of Montmartre, just 8km from the finish, will act as a springboard for attacks and a potential stumbling block for the traditional power sprinters. While the spectacle of iconic Parisian landmarks remains, the racing script may be rewritten.

The 132.3km journey will offer its usual celebratory scenes in the early phases, but once inside the city, the racing will intensify. The opening three laps around the Champs-Élysées will feel familiar, yet the final trio of circuits—diverting northwards up Montmartre—promises to alter the rhythm and outcome of this closing stage. For teams yet to claim a stage victory, this is the last opportunity to salvage their Tour. Fatigue is universal at this point, but opportunity still beckons for those bold enough to seize it.

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Best Bet for Today: Kaden Groves to Win Stage 21

Here at BettingTips4You, we stand by a principle of quality over quantity. Rather than overwhelming readers with multiple speculative selections, we offer one focused and thoroughly analysed prediction per event. This ensures clarity for our readers and allows us to measure our long-term success transparently. For Stage 21, our best bet is Kaden Groves to secure victory on the Champs-Élysées.

Why Kaden Groves Is the Right Call

Back-to-back stage wins at the Tour de France are a rare feat, but in the case of Kaden Groves, the timing and terrain suggest it’s well within reach. The Australian sprinter defied expectations on Stage 20, breaking away from the group under adverse weather and using his punchy power to triumph in Pontarlier. What makes his effort so compelling is not just the win itself, but how he achieved it—through a solo attack that highlighted not only his sprinting legs but his tactical sharpness and endurance.

The key factor heading into Stage 21 is the Montmartre climb. On paper, it appears to favour puncheurs and riders with explosive power after sustained efforts. Groves proved on Saturday that he can handle precisely this sort of profile, staying clear on hilly terrain when others faltered. With Mathieu van der Poel and Jasper Philipsen both absent due to injury and illness, the Alpecin-Deceuninck team has clearly pivoted to back Groves entirely. That full team support, paired with his excellent condition, positions him perfectly to contest and potentially conquer this reimagined sprint finale.

Furthermore, the usual sprint contenders—Jonathan Milan and Tim Merlier among them—may find the repeated climbs sapping their strength before the final drag to the line. Groves has already demonstrated his adaptability in such conditions, and unlike riders who have saved themselves for this finale, he’s shown he can produce decisive efforts even after a grueling three weeks of racing.

Given the new course dynamics, the late ascent of Montmartre just 8km before the line and his confidence after Saturday’s success, Groves presents both value and logic as the standout selection for today.

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