Cycling betting tips: Tour de France stage 18 predictions, preview and best bets

The 2025 Tour de France enters its most demanding stretch today, with a brutal queen stage lined up in the Alps that could have significant ramifications for the general classification. Stage 18, which unfolds over a punishing 172.2-kilometre route from Vif to Courchevel, is not just the longest Alpine test but also the highest-altitude finish of the entire race. Read on to find a detailed preview and the best bet recommendation, and don’t forget to take advantage of the selected betting offers listed below to maximise your betting value.

Cycling betting tips: Tour de France stage 18 predictions

Is Stage 18 Set to Decide the Tour de France?

• Today’s route features 5,450 metres of climbing, the highest of the entire 2025 Tour.
• Col de la Loze spans 26.3km and includes final ramps exceeding 11%, making it the hardest summit finish.
• Vingegaard trails Pogacar by 4 minutes 15 seconds and needs to make his move today.

Our Best Bet

With three Hors Categorie climbs packed into one day — the Col du Glandon, Col de la Madeleine and the summit finish on the Col de la Loze — the stage is expected to shake up the overall standings and push riders beyond their limits.

This alpine showdown follows a chaotic stage 17 that saw Jonathan Milan sprint to his second victory of this year’s Tour after skilfully avoiding a crash in the final kilometre. His win further cemented his dominance in the points classification, putting him 72 points clear of Tadej Pogacar. The chaos also affected sprinters like Tim Merlier, who was caught up in the incident and lost precious momentum.

At the top of the general classification, Pogacar retains a commanding lead of four minutes and 15 seconds over his Danish rival Jonas Vingegaard. Despite that gap, today’s mountainous terrain presents Vingegaard with perhaps his best — and possibly final — opportunity to claw back significant time. As the race climbs toward the heavens, the stakes are sky-high, and the smallest mistake could prove disastrous. Riders like Florian Lipowitz and Primoz Roglic will be looking to protect or advance their GC positions, while Oscar Onley, Kévin Vauquelin and others face a grim battle for survival on the relentless gradients.

As the peloton braces for the hardest day of the race, fans can watch the drama unfold live from 11:10am on TNT Sports and ITV4.

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Best Bet for Stage 18: Jonas Vingegaard to Win Stage 18

At BettingTips4You, we believe in precision rather than excess. That’s why we only highlight one standout selection each day — a single, refined recommendation that embodies both our confidence and analytical rigour. This disciplined approach allows us to measure success transparently while making it easier for readers to focus on the strongest option available. For today’s pivotal Alpine battle, our Best Bet is: Jonas Vingegaard to win Stage 18.

Vingegaard, who currently sits second in the general classification, faces his most favourable terrain of the Tour so far. The mountainous profile — featuring three relentless Hors Categorie climbs — aligns perfectly with his strengths. The Visma team are expected to go on the offensive early, likely sending riders up the road to support Vingegaard’s anticipated attack. The Col du Glandon’s irregular gradients offer early opportunities to thin the pack, while the Col de la Madeleine provides a brutally steady ascent that could be the launchpad for a decisive move.

However, it is the fearsome Col de la Loze that will likely decide the outcome. With its extended 26.3km length and gradients that spike above 10% in the final kilometres, it is tailor-made for a climber of Vingegaard’s calibre. In previous years, he has shown an ability to dominate such terrain, and today’s summit finish — the highest point of the Tour — offers the setting for a performance that could define his campaign. Pogacar may be in the lead, but defending that position on such demanding slopes is no small task. Vingegaard’s climbing form, supported by a cohesive team strategy, makes him the most logical pick to conquer this punishing stage.

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