Stage 16 of the 2025 Tour de France is shaping up to be one of the most defining and dramatic days of this year’s race. Riders return from a rest day to confront the full wrath of Mont Ventoux – a climb so fearsome it has shaped cycling folklore. Read on to find a detailed preview and the best bet recommendation, and don’t forget to take advantage of the selected betting offers listed below to maximise your betting value.
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Cycling betting tips: Tour de France stage 16 predictions
Is a Shock Brewing on the Slopes of the Giant of Provence?
- Gall has placed inside the top 10 on the last two major mountain stages, including a fourth-place finish on Saturday.
- He trails the yellow jersey by 12 minutes, which reduces the likelihood of Pogacar’s team chasing him down.
- Mont Ventoux’s summit lies at 1,910m, a setting where Gall has previously thrived during high-altitude stages.
Our Best Bet
Stage 16 – Felix Gall to Win | |
33/1 - odds when tipped | |
Reasoning Felix Gall has timed his form perfectly and excels in high-altitude climbs like Mont Ventoux. Sitting 12 minutes behind Pogacar, he’s unlikely to be chased down, making him a viable breakaway candidate. His recent top-four finish confirms he’s ready to take his opportunity. At 33/1, he’s excellent value. | |
Covering 171.5km from Montpellier to the windswept summit of the Bald Mountain, the stage begins gently, gliding through the flatter lands of southern France, only to end with one of the Tour’s most punishing ascents.
The contrast between the first 150km of relatively benign terrain and the savage final climb is stark, and riders’ bodies will be jolted back into action in the most brutal fashion. The day kicks off at 11:10am local time, with live coverage starting on TNT Sports and ITV4 for UK audiences. With fatigue setting in after two and a half weeks of relentless racing, this kind of terrain, especially following a rest day, often reveals who has truly prepared for the long haul.
Although general classification contenders like Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard sit in dominant positions, the unpredictability of post-rest performances and the severity of Ventoux’s 8.8% average gradients suggest we may not get the result many expect.
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Best Bet for Stage 16 – Felix Gall to Win
Here at BettingTips4You, we pride ourselves on quality over quantity, offering just one expertly chosen prediction for each event. We avoid overloading readers with multiple tips and instead provide a single, clear selection backed by rigorous analysis. This allows for greater transparency and makes it easier to track long-term success. For Stage 16 of the Tour de France, our best bet is: Felix Gall to win.
Why Felix Gall Is Worth Backing
Felix Gall may not be wearing yellow, but his form and positioning in the general classification put him right in contention to seize this opportunity on Ventoux. The Decathlon Ag2r La Mondiale rider currently sits seventh overall, 12 minutes adrift of Pogacar, which places him in that ideal sweet spot: high enough in the standings to be taken seriously, but not so high that he’ll be heavily marked by the major GC teams.
What makes Gall such a standout pick for Tuesday is how he’s performed on the most demanding mountain stages so far. On Saturday’s brutal finish, Gall managed to come fourth, emerging as the best rider outside the leading general classification trio. He was also eighth on the climb to Hautacam, which further confirms he is one of the strongest climbers in the race this year when the road tilts upwards.
Despite previously indicating that his primary focus was on Stage 18, Gall appears to be hitting peak condition earlier than anticipated. If given freedom by his team and allowed to slip into a breakaway group, the Austrian could prove very difficult to reel back on the ascent to 1,910 metres above sea level. The nature of this stage – with its long preamble and isolated summit finish – could allow a rider like Gall the space to ride his own rhythm up the Ventoux and capitalise on any tactical stalemates among the favourites. If he’s not pulled back, his climbing pedigree suggests he can go all the way.
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