Cycling betting tips: Tour de France stage 15 predictions, preview and best bets

As the Tour de France reaches its 15th chapter, Sunday’s stage offers a distinct change in tempo following the attritional days in the Pyrenees. Read on to find a detailed preview and the best bet recommendation, and don’t forget to take advantage of the selected betting offers listed below to maximise your betting value.

Cycling betting tips: Tour de France stage 15 predictions

What Kind of Ride Will We See on the Road to Carcassonne?

• Stage 15 includes only three categorised climbs but nearly 50km of downhill roads to the finish, favouring punchy descenders like Van der Poel.
• Alpecin–Deceuninck’s Kaden Groves may struggle to survive the 10.2% gradients of the Pas du Sant, making Van der Poel a more likely team leader.
• Van der Poel has been kept fresh after a quiet stint in the Pyrenees, suggesting a strategic hold-back for a full attack on transitional terrain.

Our Best Bet

Departing from Muret, the peloton embarks on a 169.3-kilometre journey to Carcassonne, a route defined by continuous undulation rather than outright climbing. While the mountain tests are temporarily paused, the road remains far from forgiving, and tactical nous will be just as vital as physical resilience.

This transitional stage is not just a breather but a calculated challenge, as the riders tackle three categorised climbs amidst a profile that climbs steadily before descending towards the medieval finish. With the final 40km mostly downhill, teams must be ready to adapt swiftly to shifting dynamics. Whether it ends in a breakaway triumph or a reduced sprint could depend on how committed the fast-men’s teams are in reeling back the day’s escapees.

Today’s route doesn’t offer the steep gradients of previous days, yet with the Côte de Sorèze and the Pas du Sant providing critical launchpads, opportunists will be eyeing these ramps to force decisive moves. Those who manage to slip away early must cooperate to preserve their advantage, knowing that the terrain post-Pas du Sant favours bold solo bids, especially given the twisty descents that follow.

A potential for crosswinds only adds to the suspense, as echelons could form and disrupt any predictable narrative. With the Alps looming after the rest day, general classification riders may momentarily ease hostilities, opening the door for riders outside the overall battle to seize the spotlight.

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Best Bet for Stage 15: Mathieu van der Poel to Win

At BettingTips4You, we focus solely on quality over volume when it comes to recommendations. That’s why we present just one bet for each stage — the one we believe carries the best value and probability. This refined approach not only reduces confusion for readers but also allows us to measure our results transparently. For Stage 15 of the 2025 Tour de France, our best bet is Mathieu van der Poel to win.

Why Van der Poel is the Right Call Today

The route from Muret to Carcassonne has all the elements that favour a versatile attacker, and few in the peloton tick as many boxes as Mathieu van der Poel. After taking a quieter approach through the Pyrenean mountains, the Alpecin–Deceuninck powerhouse seems primed for a resurgence. With the profile featuring selective climbing but no high mountains, and a finale made for fast and fearless descenders, Van der Poel’s unique blend of punch, endurance and tactical sharpness could prove decisive.

His team may choose to back Van der Poel in the breakaway instead of trying to shepherd Kaden Groves through a terrain that doesn’t entirely suit pure sprinters. The Pas du Sant climb at 50km from the finish is steep enough to shed the heavier fast men, and Van der Poel is just the type of rider to accelerate away from tired rivals on such a gradient before exploiting the long descent into Carcassonne.

He’s demonstrated on numerous occasions that he can deliver wins from both selective group finishes and lone attacks. With a flat run-in and previous experience of managing chaotic finales, Van der Poel’s tactical intelligence and explosive strength could give him the edge once again. The route rewards aggression, and if he gets the nod to go up the road, his chances are compelling. With no mountains to suffer through and a rest day coming, conditions are ideal for him to commit fully. Backing him today offers both logic and value.

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