England and Greece, level on six points, meet in a crucial Nations League clash. In addition to our detailed analysis in our Match prediction article, we have also crafted a huge 18/1 bet builder as we try to take advantage of the many betting markets available on this clash. The bet builder has been placed with BetVictor, and if you don’t have an account, you can get a very generous offer by clicking below.
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England -1 to Win
England come into this fixture with a clear advantage, both in form and squad depth. Having secured two consecutive 2-0 victories in their opening Nations League matches, Lee Carsley’s men have displayed no signs of vulnerability. In contrast, Greece, despite being a resolute side, lack the same level of quality, especially with the absence of their key forward, Fotis Ioannidis. This disparity makes betting on England to win by at least two goals (-1 handicap) a sound choice.
A significant factor in England’s favour is their command of possession. Across their two Nations League outings, they have averaged 77.5% possession, showcasing their ability to control the tempo of the game. Midfielders like Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice have been instrumental in ensuring England’s dominance in this area, stifling opposition play and minimising counter-attacking threats. Greece, who have been solid defensively but faced less challenging opponents, are likely to find England’s sustained pressure difficult to manage.
England’s forward line remains dangerous even if Harry Kane, who is nursing a minor injury, is rested or plays fewer minutes. The depth of attacking talent, with players such as Ollie Watkins and Dominic Solanke available, means they have multiple routes to goal. Creative players like Phil Foden and Jack Grealish provide the necessary spark to unlock Greece’s defence, which has yet to face a team of England’s calibre. Greece may have kept two clean sheets, but the quality of their opposition was far lower than what they will encounter here.
Additionally, the stats tell a clear story. England have averaged 19 shots per game, with 8.5 of those hitting the target. This suggests that Greece’s goalkeeper, Odysseas Vlachodimos, will be kept busy throughout the match. In contrast, Greece’s attacking output has been modest, with only 9.5 shots per game, underscoring England’s likely dominance. Overall, England’s superior quality in all areas makes the -1 handicap a strong option.
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Jack Grealish to Score Anytime
With Harry Kane potentially seeing limited game time due to a minor injury, there is an opportunity to look for another likely scorer in the England ranks. Jack Grealish, despite not scoring for Manchester City in the Premier League this season, offers an intriguing option for an anytime goal. He found the back of the net for England in a recent Nations League game against Ireland, proving he can step up on the international stage.
When Grealish plays for England, he often enjoys more freedom compared to his role at Manchester City, where he is sometimes more restricted. This increased creative liberty suits Grealish’s style, allowing him to exploit spaces and create opportunities in the final third. Greece’s defence, while solid, may struggle to cope with Grealish’s ability to drift between lines and make penetrating runs, especially as the game progresses.
Moreover, Greece’s defensive resilience will require moments of individual brilliance to break them down, and Grealish has the flair and creativity to provide that spark. His dribbling ability and eye for goal make him a strong candidate to score in this match. Priced at 3/1 for an anytime goal, backing Grealish offers good value, particularly given his record of rising to the occasion for England.
Kostas Tsimikas to Be Shown a Card
One of Greece’s standout players, Kostas Tsimikas, who plies his trade with Liverpool, could find himself walking a fine line in this encounter. Players from lesser teams often feel the need to prove themselves against higher-quality opposition, and Tsimikas, as one of Greece’s key figures, may feel compelled to go the extra mile against England. However, this eagerness can sometimes lead to rash decisions, and Tsimikas has a history of disciplinary issues.
In his last match for Greece, a 2-0 win against Ireland, Tsimikas picked up a yellow card, adding to his tally of two bookings during the Euro 2024 qualifiers. His aggressive style of play, especially when defending against pacey and tricky wingers, often puts him in situations where he commits fouls. In the Premier League this season, Tsimikas has averaged 2.4 fouls per game, and with the quality of England’s wide players, such as Grealish and Foden, it’s highly likely that he will be drawn into making a mistimed challenge.
The pressure of facing top-tier opponents can lead to moments of frustration, and Tsimikas is no stranger to this. His willingness to push the boundaries of physicality, combined with the intensity of the occasion, makes him a prime candidate to be shown a card. Given these factors, betting on Tsimikas to be booked offers a solid bet, especially as he tries to cope with England’s relentless attacks down the flanks.
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