I won’t waste your time by delving into the widely-discussed antics of Cristiano Ronaldo on Monday night. Simply put: grow up, pal.
This match-up appears to be in France’s favour. They are likely to allow Portugal possession, knowing that the opposition will attempt to find Ronaldo at every turn. This strategy could provide France with ample opportunities to exploit their pace on the counter-attack.
You can read all our analysis and match predictions in our dedicated article on this match. Additionally, to make the most of the betting opportunities, we have crafted a huge 61/1 bet builder acca which you can find below.
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Portugal vs France Bet Builder
N’Golo Kanté to Receive a Yellow Card
Given N’Golo Kanté’s central role in the French midfield, the 15/2 odds for him to be shown a card seem generous. Kanté has committed at least one foul in each of his four appearances in this tournament. He is the most frequently penalised player in the French squad, yet he is still to receive a yellow card.
With the reset for yellow cards coming after the quarter-final stage, Kanté doesn’t need to worry about accumulating bookings at this point, unlike some of his teammates. Midfield partner Adrien Rabiot is already suspended for this match due to bookings, while other key players like Ousmane Dembélé, Antoine Griezmann, Kylian Mbappé, and Aurélien Tchouaméni need to be cautious to avoid suspension. This places extra responsibility on Kanté to maintain defensive solidity without the risk of suspension, making him a prime candidate for a booking as he tackles the midfield battle head-on.
France’s tactical setup often places Kanté in positions where he must break up play, and against a technical and quick Portuguese side, his likelihood of committing fouls increases. With Portugal’s Joao Palhinha, Ruben Neves, and Cristiano Ronaldo posing threats in midfield and attack, Kanté’s role becomes even more crucial. His defensive duties will involve frequent challenges and interceptions, heightening the chance of him being booked.
Kylian Mbappé to Score Anytime
Kylian Mbappé has been France’s primary attacking threat throughout Euro 2024. Despite France’s struggle to score consistently, Mbappé’s performances have stood out. He has taken 14 shots in three matches, generating an expected goals tally of 2.52, showcasing his ability to create and convert scoring opportunities.
Mbappé’s pace and dribbling skills make him a constant danger to any defence. Portugal’s backline has shown vulnerabilities in recent games, and Mbappé is well-positioned to exploit these weaknesses. His previous goal from the penalty spot underscores his confidence and composure, especially under pressure. With France expected to rely heavily on his attacking prowess, Mbappé is likely to find the net in this crucial quarter-final match.
Furthermore, France’s potential tactical adjustments due to Rabiot’s suspension might see Griezmann dropping back into midfield, allowing Mbappé more freedom in the attacking third. This could lead to more opportunities for Mbappé to capitalise on his speed and finishing abilities, making him a solid bet to score anytime during the match.
Under 9.5 Total Corners
Given the high stakes of a quarter-final clash, both Portugal and France are likely to adopt cautious strategies, which typically result in fewer corner kicks. Both teams have demonstrated strong defensive organisation throughout the tournament, limiting their opponents’ chances to win corners.
France, in particular, has a disciplined defence that prioritises blocking shots and cutting out crosses before they reach the byline. Portugal, while more vulnerable in defence, also tends to avoid conceding many corners due to their compact defensive shape. The tactical nature of this encounter suggests fewer attacking sequences that reach the byline, which usually results in a lower total corner count.
With both teams focusing on solid defensive foundations and counter-attacking play, the match is expected to see fewer corner opportunities. The prediction of under 9.5 corners aligns well with the anticipated cautious approach from both sides.
Pepe to Receive a Yellow Card
Pepe’s reputation for aggressive defending makes him a strong candidate for a yellow card in this match. Known for his physicality and no-nonsense approach, Pepe often finds himself in situations where he must commit fouls to stop opposing attackers.
Facing a quick and skilful opponent like Mbappé, Pepe’s likelihood of committing bookable offences increases. Mbappé’s speed and dribbling ability will put Pepe under significant pressure, leading to situations where Pepe might resort to tactical fouling. His history of picking up yellow cards in high-stakes matches further supports this prediction.
Additionally, with the tension and intensity of a quarter-final, the chances of aggressive challenges and subsequent bookings are higher. Pepe’s defensive responsibilities will involve close marking and stopping counter-attacks, activities that often lead to fouls and yellow cards. Given these factors, betting on Pepe to receive a yellow card is a plausible prediction.
Bernardo Silva to Have 1+ Shot on Target
Bernardo Silva has managed at least one effort on goal in each of his three appearances so far in this tournament, with shots on target in two of those matches. Although he struggled to make a significant impact against Slovenia, Silva’s quality and ability to find space make him a constant threat.
Playing against a defensively vulnerable Theo Hernandez could benefit Silva, allowing him more opportunities to get involved in attacking plays. Silva’s role for Portugal involves drifting into central areas and taking shots from outside the box, increasing his chances of getting efforts on target.
Given his consistent performance in terms of shooting, coupled with the defensive lapses of France’s left side, Silva is likely to register at least one shot on target. His creativity and vision in the final third make him a key player for Portugal’s attacking efforts, making this a sensible bet.
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