Napoli vs Roma predictions ahead of this Serie A contest. Napoli, desperate to secure European football, hosts rivals Roma at Stadio Maradona on Sunday, with critical points at stake in this late-season clash. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Serie A | Gameweek 34 – Apr 28, 2024 at 5pm UK at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Napoli vs Roma Predictions
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High Stakes in the Derby del Sole: Can Roma Outshine Napoli at the Maradona?
Key Stats
– Napoli has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 12 Serie A matches.
– Roma has won four of their last five matches in all competitions.
– Six of the last seven goals in this fixture have been scored after the 75th minute, indicating that late drama could be expected.
As Napoli struggles to regain its form after losing the Scudetto to Inter Milan, the team finds itself in a precarious position, needing a victory to keep their European dreams alive. Despite their commendable possession stats and attacking efforts, their defensive frailties have become a significant concern, conceding in their last 12 Serie A matches. This vulnerability may play into the hands of a Roma side keen on solidifying their Champions League qualification spot.
Roma, under the management of Daniele De Rossi, have shown an impressive capacity to secure points in crucial matches, exemplified by their recent dramatic win over Udinese. However, their performance against top-tier teams has been less than stellar, a weakness that Napoli could exploit despite their recent form.
Tactical Setup and Key Players
Napoli’s Strategy: Francesco Calzona is expected to deploy a familiar formation, focusing on the attacking prowess of Victor Osimhen, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and Matteo Politano. The return of Amir Rrahmani and Mario Rui should strengthen their defence, but their recent record suggests there may still be gaps for Roma to exploit.
Roma’s Game Plan: With suspensions and potential rotations due to their Europa League commitments, Roma may need to adjust their usual lineup. Players like Tammy Abraham and Stephan El Shaarawy will be crucial in exploiting Napoli’s defensive instability. The midfield battle, particularly involving Bryan Cristante and Lorenzo Pellegrini, will be key to controlling the game and creating opportunities.
Expected Goals and Key Match Deciders
Both teams have shown they can be prolific in attack but vulnerable in defence. Napoli’s high shot volume and possession will clash with Roma’s effective counter-attacking style. The midfield control and the ability to capitalise on set pieces could be decisive.
Key Duels and Areas of the Match
The wings will be battlegrounds, with Napoli’s Politano and Kvaratskhelia testing Roma’s full-backs. Central midfield clashes, especially between Anguissa and Pellegrini, will also be critical in establishing dominance and transitioning play.
Managerial Tactics and Critiques
Francesco Calzona has struggled to maintain a solid defensive line, a recurring issue that needs addressing if Napoli aims to return to their previous heights. On the other side, Daniele De Rossi’s tactical acumen has been promising, but his ability to pull off results against stronger sides remains in question, especially in high-pressure situations.
Expected Line-ups and Impact on Game Play
Napoli Starting XI: Meret; Di Lorenzo, Jesus, Rrahmani, Rui; Anguissa, Lobotka, Zielinski; Politano, Osimhen, Kvaratskhelia. This lineup suggests a focus on maintaining possession and breaking down Roma’s defence through skilled wide players and Osimhen’s finishing.
Roma Starting XI: Svilar; Karsdorp, Mancini, Huijsen, Angelino; Bove, Cristante, Pellegrini; Dybala, Abraham, El Shaarawy. Roma will rely on their midfield solidity and the attacking trio’s creativity and speed to exploit Napoli’s defensive gaps, especially on counter-attacks.
Predictions and Rationale
Best Bet: Roma to Win and Both Teams to Score Considering both teams’ form and historical performances in this fixture, Roma seems poised to exploit Napoli’s defensive woes. Both teams scoring has been a common theme in their encounters, making this bet particularly appealing given both sides’ offensive capabilities.
Correct Score: 2-1 to Roma Aligning with the best bet, a 2-1 victory for Roma is plausible. This scoreline reflects the expected competitive nature of the game, Roma’s slightly better form, and Napoli’s inability to keep clean sheets.
Goalscorer Prediction: Victor Osimhen to Score Osimhen’s role as Napoli’s leading striker and his track record against Roma makes him a likely candidate to score. His pace and physicality could trouble Roma’s adjusted defensive line.
Who Will Score First: Roma Given Napoli’s shaky starts in recent games and Roma’s need to secure early advantages in important matches, Roma could very likely open the scoring. Their quick transitions and effective use of space on the counter could catch Napoli off guard early in the match.
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