Genoa vs Inter Milan Predictions

Genoa vs Inter Milan predictions for this Serie A clash. Inter Milan begin their Serie A title defence on Saturday, facing Genoa at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. The Scudetto holders aim to start strong as they meet their first challenge of the new season. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Serie A | Aug 17, 2024 at 5:30pm UK at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Genoa vs Inter Milan Predictions

Can Genoa Stun the Scudetto Holders?

As the Serie A season kicks off, Inter Milan travel to Genoa to begin their title defence at the iconic Stadio Luigi Ferraris. The Nerazzurri are eager to retain their crown, while Genoa, a team determined to secure a top-10 finish this season, face an immense challenge. With both teams set to square off, this fixture promises to be an intense and tactical battle, one that may well set the tone for their respective campaigns.

Inter Milan’s Commanding Presence

Inter Milan are coming off an exceptional season where they secured their 20th Scudetto, leaving their closest rivals, AC Milan, trailing by a significant 19 points. This remarkable feat highlights their dominance in Italian football, a dominance they are keen to maintain. Despite a few injuries in the squad, including doubts over summer signings Mehdi Taremi and Piotr Zielinski, Inter Milan’s core remains largely intact.

Simone Inzaghi has overseen a squad that boasts a blend of stability and potency. Lautaro Martinez, the team’s talismanic captain, who netted 24 goals last season, will once again lead the line, this time alongside Marcus Thuram. The duo’s chemistry could be pivotal in breaking down Genoa’s defence. Inter’s defensive solidity, particularly with the likes of Francesco Acerbi, Alessandro Bastoni, and the newly recruited Benjamin Pavard, provides a formidable backbone that Genoa will find difficult to penetrate.

In their pre-season, Inter Milan showed glimpses of what to expect this term, combining robust defence with clinical attacking movements. Although they experienced a mixed bag of results in their friendlies, the overall quality and depth of their squad suggest they are well-prepared for another successful campaign. Inter’s ability to control possession and dictate the game’s tempo will likely be key factors in this fixture.

Genoa's Resilience and Ambition

On the other side, Genoa are coming into this match with optimism, despite the daunting task ahead. After securing a respectable mid-table finish last season, Genoa are aiming to climb even higher. Their resilience, particularly in gaining points from losing positions, was a hallmark of their success. However, they now face the challenge of starting a new season without key players who played a significant role in their previous campaign.

The departure of their first-choice goalkeeper to Inter and the potential exit of star winger Albert Gudmundsson have left gaps in Genoa's lineup. Nevertheless, coach Alberto Gilardino has been experimenting with a new forward pairing of Junior Messias and Vitinha, both of whom have shown promise in pre-season and the Coppa Italia. Messias, in particular, has been a bright spot, scoring vital goals that have kept Genoa competitive.

Genoa's home form will be crucial in their survival this season. The fortress-like Stadio Luigi Ferraris has often been a difficult place for visiting teams, and Genoa will need to harness every bit of their home advantage to keep Inter at bay. Gilardino’s tactical approach is likely to involve a defensive setup aimed at frustrating Inter while looking to exploit any opportunities on the counter-attack.

Tactical Dynamics and Key Battles

The tactical approach of both teams will likely define the outcome of this match. Inter Milan, under Inzaghi, will continue with their favoured 3-5-2 formation, which has proven to be highly effective. The midfield trio of Nicolo Barella, Hakan Calhanoglu, and Henrikh Mkhitaryan will be crucial in controlling the game. Their ability to dictate play, maintain possession, and create opportunities will be the driving force behind Inter’s attacking play. The full-backs, Denzel Dumfries and Federico Dimarco, are expected to push forward, providing width and stretching Genoa's defensive lines.

For Genoa, the emphasis will be on defensive solidity and disciplined organisation. The 3-5-2 formation is also Gilardino's preferred setup, with a strong back three and a compact midfield designed to close down spaces and limit Inter’s attacking options. The central midfielders, particularly Morten Thorsby and Milan Badelj, will need to be at their best to disrupt Inter’s rhythm and launch quick counters.

One of the key battles will be between Inter's attacking duo of Martinez and Thuram against Genoa’s back three, likely composed of De Winter, Bani, and Vasquez. The pace and movement of Martinez, combined with Thuram’s physical presence, could prove too much for Genoa to handle. Conversely, Genoa’s success might hinge on their ability to contain Inter's midfield and prevent them from dictating the tempo of the game.

Potential Betting Angles and Expected Goals

The data suggests that this match could be a low-scoring affair, especially given Genoa's defensive approach and Inter's solid backline. Inter Milan’s away games last season saw them concede just 11 goals, underlining their defensive strength. Meanwhile, Genoa’s lack of firepower, particularly with the uncertainty surrounding Gudmundsson’s availability, suggests they might struggle to breach Inter’s defence.

Expected goals (xG) metrics also support a cautious approach. Inter Milan’s xG from last season was one of the highest in Serie A, driven by their prolific attack. However, Genoa’s xG conceded at home was relatively low, indicating their ability to keep games tight. Given these factors, betting on under 2.5 goals might be a wise choice.

Moreover, Inter’s tendency to control games and limit their opponents' chances suggests that a clean sheet is a strong possibility. Genoa’s best chance might come from set pieces or exploiting rare defensive lapses from Inter, but overall, the visitors are expected to dominate both possession and opportunities.

Critique of the Managers and Tactical Approach

Simone Inzaghi’s management has largely been effective, but there are concerns about his over-reliance on certain players and a somewhat predictable tactical approach. While continuity can be a strength, it can also lead to stagnation, and there were moments last season when Inter looked devoid of creativity against well-organised defences. Inzaghi needs to demonstrate more tactical flexibility, especially against teams like Genoa, who will set up to frustrate and counter.

Alberto Gilardino, on the other hand, deserves credit for stabilising Genoa and leading them to a comfortable mid-table finish last season. However, his tactics are often too conservative, especially in games where Genoa might benefit from a more adventurous approach. The loss of key players and the reliance on unproven combinations up front could expose his limitations as a manager. Gilardino needs to find a balance between defensive solidity and attacking intent, or Genoa could find themselves struggling against stronger sides.

Predictions

Best Bet: Inter Milan to Win and Both Teams to Score

Inter Milan are expected to come out on top in this encounter, but Genoa’s resilience and ability to score at home should not be underestimated. Given Inter's defensive solidity and Genoa's penchant for scoring at home, the best bet is for Inter to win with both teams getting on the scoresheet.

Correct Score Prediction: Inter Milan to Win 2-1

Building on the best bet, a 2-1 victory for Inter Milan seems the most likely outcome. Inter's superior quality should see them prevail, but Genoa’s resilience at home means they could still find the net.

Goalscorer Prediction: Lautaro Martinez to Score Anytime

Lautaro Martinez is the obvious choice for a goalscorer prediction. As Inter’s main attacking threat, he is likely to find the back of the net, especially given his role as the team's primary striker.

Corner Prediction: Inter Milan to Win More Corners, Total Over 8.5 Corners

Inter Milan, with their attacking approach and dominance in possession, are expected to win the corner battle. A total of over 8.5 corners in the match is a reasonable expectation, considering both teams' tendencies.

Innovative Market Prediction: Total Team Shots on Target - Inter Milan Over 5.5

Given their attacking prowess and the likely defensive setup of Genoa, Inter Milan are expected to register a significant number of shots on target. Betting on Inter to have over 5.5 shots on target provides a strong angle. to have over 3.5 shots on target could be a smart play.

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