Football Stats Hub

York crestYork
v
Rotherham crestRotherham

EFL Trophy | Tue 22 Sep, 19:00

York v Rotherham Stats

Data last updated: Mon 21 Sep 2026, 08:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

York and Rotherham meet in the EFL Trophy with York showing a strong attacking impetus in recent matches, consistently hitting over 2.5 goals. Rotherham's data is limited, but their attacking players like Fábio Tavares and P. Mullin suggest potential offensive threat. The fixture promises an open contest with York's high shot volume and Rotherham's creative key passes setting the stage for multiple scoring opportunities. Tactical openness and recent goal trends make this a lively encounter with goal-scoring chances for both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • York has a 100% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals recently.
  • York averages 17 shots and 6 shots on target per game, indicating strong offensive pressure.
  • Rotherham's attacking players, including Fábio Tavares and P. Mullin, show promising goal threat metrics.
  • Head-to-head matches average 1.6 goals, but recent form suggests increased scoring.
  • The model estimates a 78% chance for over 2.5 goals, with positive value at 1.65 .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors over 2.5 goals with a 78% probability, well above the implied market chance of 60.6%, indicating clear value. York's offensive control, reflected in high shot volumes and consistent over 2.5 goal matches, supports this. Despite limited data on Rotherham, their key attacking players contribute to the goal potential. The combination of York's attacking form and Rotherham's creative threat underpins the expectation of a high-scoring game. The data quality for Rotherham is thinner, so line-ups and tactical setups should be monitored.

Model Probability78% chance of over 2.5 goals
Strong positive
York Offensive Form100% over 2.5 rate, 17 shots per game
Strong positive
Rotherham Attacking PlayersKey passes and shots from Tavares and Mullin
Positive
Market Implied Chance60.6%, lower than model chance
Strong positive
Data QualityLimited Rotherham data
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively match with York's attacking firepower likely to create multiple chances, supported by Rotherham's creative midfielders. The statistical edge and recent goal trends favor a game with at least three goals, making over 2.5 goals a compelling selection for this EFL Trophy fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking dynamics

“York's high shot volume combined with Rotherham's creative key passes suggests a match ripe for goals, making over 2.5 goals a smart angle given the attacking talents on display.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

York has a 100% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals recently.

York averages 17 shots and 6 shots on target per game, indicating strong offensive pressure.

Rotherham's attacking players, including Fábio Tavares and P. Mullin, show promising goal threat metrics.

Head-to-head matches average 1.6 goals, but recent form suggests increased scoring.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last five matches involving York, over 2.5 goals occurred 100% of the time, reflecting a high-tempo, attack-oriented style.
  • The average goals in recent head-to-heads is 1.6, but current attacking trends and player involvement point towards an increased likelihood of a goal-laden encounter.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

York

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
15 Sep 2026H Newcastle United U211-3

Rotherham

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Rotherham yet.

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 75% · edge -7.9 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Rotherham Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
York to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Rotherham to WinBetfred guide price · model 33%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
York Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
York's recent form strongly supports over 2.5 goals, with all recent matches exceeding this threshold and a 100% BTTS rate. Rotherham's limited recent data prevents firm conclusions, but their attacking players' metrics suggest they can contribute to a high-scoring game, aligning with York's offensive momentum.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

York1
Avg goals scored
Rotherham-
York3
Avg goals conceded
Rotherham-
York100%
BTTS rate
Rotherham-
York100%
Over 2.5 goals
Rotherham-
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 61% · edge +15 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 88%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
York's recent matches all exceeded 2.5 goals and featured both teams scoring, highlighting an open attacking style. While Rotherham's data is limited, their attacking players' involvement in shots and key passes supports the potential for goals from both sides, reinforcing the over 2.5 goals route.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 61% · edge +15 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Rotherham Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
York to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Rotherham to WinBetfred guide price · model 33%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
York Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The over 2.5 goals market is priced attractively at 1.65, reflecting a 60.6% implied chance, while the model estimates a 78% probability, indicating clear value. This discrepancy suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of multiple goals, making the bet a positive value opportunity with standard stake guidance.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1York wins
3Draws
1Rotherham wins
22 Aug 2026Rotherham v York1-1
08 Oct 2013York v Rotherham0-3
26 Feb 2013Rotherham v York1-1
06 Oct 2012York v Rotherham0-0
04 Sep 2012Rotherham v York0-1
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 61% · edge +15 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
York to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Rotherham to WinBetfred guide price · model 33%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The head-to-head sample of five matches shows a moderate average of 1.6 goals per game, which is lower than recent form suggests. This indicates that while past meetings were tighter, current attacking form and player roles are more influential for this fixture's goal expectations.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

York7
Avg corners for
Rotherham-
York8
Avg total corners
Rotherham-
York0
Avg yellow cards
Rotherham-
York17
Avg shots
Rotherham-
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 29% vs implied 58% · edge -28.8 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
York averages 7 corners and 17 shots per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure and territorial control that often leads to set-piece opportunities. Rotherham's fouling and card risk data suggest a competitive match with physical challenges, contributing to game flow and potential goal chances.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

EFL Trophy

York1
Played
Rotherham0
York1
Avg goals for
Rotherham0
York3
Avg goals against
Rotherham0
York0
Clean sheets
Rotherham0
Best odds for this sectionRotherham Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 42% vs implied 46% · edge -3.5 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
York to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Rotherham to WinBetfred guide price · model 33%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
York Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
York's season statistics reveal a potent attack averaging high shot and goal numbers, consistent with over 2.5 goals outcomes. Rotherham's thinner data sample limits definitive conclusions, but their attacking indexes and key pass rates indicate potential for contributing to a goal-rich match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%York Over 2.5
-Rotherham Over 2.5
1.6H2H avg goals
In the last five matches involving York, over 2.5 goals occurred 100% of the time, reflecting a high-tempo, attack-oriented style. The average goals in recent head-to-heads is 1.6, but current attacking trends and player involvement point towards an increased likelihood of a goal-laden encounter.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Football predictions hub

Find the latest football previews and betting angles from the main predictions hub.

More stats pages

Leicester v Fulham U21EFL Trophy · Tue 22 Sep 19:00Wigan v BlackpoolEFL Trophy · Tue 22 Sep 19:00Barnsley v Leeds United U21EFL Trophy · Tue 22 Sep 19:00Burton Albion v Nottingham Forest U21EFL Trophy · Tue 22 Sep 19:00

Competition and hubs

corners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets research

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre