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Wrexham crestWrexham
v
Burnley crestBurnley

Championship | Tue 08 Sep, 19:45

Wrexham v Burnley Stats

Data last updated: Mon 07 Sep 2026, 08:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Wrexham host Burnley in a Championship clash where Wrexham have shown more resilience and momentum early in the season. Wrexham sit mid-table with six points from recent matches, demonstrating a balanced attack and tighter defense, while Burnley struggle near the bottom with just two points and defensive vulnerabilities. The home side's tactical discipline and recent form suggest they can capitalize on Burnley's inconsistencies, making this a pivotal fixture for both teams aiming to climb the standings.

BT4Y best bet

Wrexham to Win

  • Wrexham have earned 6 points recently, showing improved form and defensive solidity.
  • Burnley have conceded 2.4 goals per game, indicating defensive frailties.
  • Wrexham average 11.2 shots per game with a solid conversion rate.
  • Burnley’s attack is active but less efficient, with high shots but fewer goals.
  • No previous head-to-head data adds uncertainty, favoring the in-form home side.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Wrexham to win with a 67.9% chance, reflecting their stronger recent form and defensive record compared to Burnley’s struggles. Wrexham’s ability to limit goals conceded (0.8 per game) contrasts with Burnley’s leaky defense (2.4 per game), supporting a home victory. The price offers positive value with a 16.6% edge, making this a solid pick based on form, defensive stability, and attacking efficiency. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Recent FormWrexham 6 points vs Burnley 2 points
Strong positive
Defensive RecordWrexham concede 0.8 goals/game, Burnley 2.4
Strong positive
Shots & AttackWrexham 11.2 shots/game, effective conversion
Positive
Price Value Edge16.6% positive edge at 1.95 odds
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Wrexham’s recent defensive improvements and home advantage provide a tactical edge over Burnley, who have struggled to convert chances and maintain defensive discipline. The data supports a home win as Wrexham control the game tempo and limit Burnley’s scoring opportunities effectively.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Wrexham’s balanced approach and defensive resilience make them the stronger side here, especially with Burnley’s defensive issues and inconsistent form. This match should favor the home team’s tactical discipline and momentum.”

Key Data Signals

Wrexham to Win evidence

Wrexham have earned 6 points recently, showing improved form and defensive solidity.

Burnley have conceded 2.4 goals per game, indicating defensive frailties.

Wrexham average 11.2 shots per game with a solid conversion rate.

Burnley’s attack is active but less efficient, with high shots but fewer goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Wrexham to Win notes

  • Recent trends show Burnley’s matches have an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating open games, while Wrexham’s matches reach this threshold only 40% of the time.
  • This suggests a likely moderate tempo with potential for controlled scoring rather than a high-scoring shootout.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Wrexham1.2
Avg goals scored
Burnley1.2
Wrexham0.8
Avg goals conceded
Burnley2.4
Wrexham60%
BTTS rate
Burnley100%
Wrexham40%
Over 2.5 goals
Burnley80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams to score is unlikely given Wrexham’s solid defense conceding only 0.8 goals per game, contrasting with Burnley’s defensive struggles. The controlled scoring environment suggests a low BTTS probability and a match with limited goals from Burnley.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickWrexham to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Wrexham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The for Wrexham to win reflect a positive value opportunity, with the model indicating a 67.9% chance against an implied 51.3%. This gap suggests the market underestimates Wrexham’s form and defensive strength, making the price of 1.95 appealing for a home victory.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Wrexham6
Avg corners for
Burnley5
Wrexham10.75
Avg total corners
Burnley10.67
Wrexham1.5
Avg yellow cards
Burnley2
Wrexham12
Avg shots
Burnley12.33
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 55% · edge +6.2 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
The match is expected to feature moderate corner counts and disciplined play from Wrexham, averaging 5.2 corners and 1.2 yellow cards per game. Burnley’s higher card average (2.2) reflects a more aggressive style, but Wrexham’s territorial control should limit Burnley’s set-piece opportunities and shots on target.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Wrexham

DWLDD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 1L
05 Sep 2026A Swansea0-0
02 Sep 2026A Millwall3-0
28 Aug 2026H Birmingham1-2
22 Aug 2026H Watford1-1
17 Aug 2026A Cardiff1-1

Burnley

LDLLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 3L
05 Sep 2026H Bristol City1-2
02 Sep 2026H Middlesbrough1-1
29 Aug 2026A Norwich1-4
23 Aug 2026A West Brom1-3
16 Aug 2026H West Ham2-2
Market aligned with main pickWrexham to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Wrexham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Wrexham’s recent form shows 6 points gained with a balanced attack and improved defense, while Burnley have struggled to secure points and have conceded heavily. This momentum favors Wrexham’s and tactical execution in the upcoming match.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Wrexham wins
0Draws
0Burnley wins
Market aligned with main pickWrexham to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
No previous head-to-head meetings between Wrexham and Burnley exist, so historical data offers no guidance. This absence places greater emphasis on current form and tactical matchups to predict the outcome.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Championship

Wrexham5
Played
Burnley5
Wrexham1.2
Avg goals for
Burnley1.2
Wrexham0.8
Avg goals against
Burnley2.4
Wrexham2
Clean sheets
Burnley0
Market aligned with main pickWrexham to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Wrexham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Wrexham’s season stats reveal a solid defensive record and efficient attack, scoring 1.2 goals per game while conceding fewer than one. Burnley’s higher goals conceded rate and inconsistent scoring highlight their vulnerabilities, supporting Wrexham’s home win chances.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Wrexham651312
24Burnley25023-6
Wrexham’s mid-table position with 6 points contrasts with Burnley’s 24th place and 2 points, reflecting the pressure on Burnley to improve. This standing difference underscores the stakes for Burnley and the relative stability of Wrexham in the league.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Wrexham Over 2.5
80%Burnley Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Recent trends show Burnley’s matches have an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating open games, while Wrexham’s matches reach this threshold only 40% of the time. This suggests a likely moderate tempo with potential for controlled scoring rather than a high-scoring shootout.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Wrexham v Burnley prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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