Cardiff

Stoke City

Championship | Tue 08 Sep, 19:45

Cardiff v Stoke City Stats

Data last updated: Mon 07 Sep 2026, 08:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cardiff and Stoke City meet in a Championship clash where both teams have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Cardiff, sitting lower in the table, have struggled to keep clean sheets, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game, while Stoke City, positioned mid-table, also concede at a similar rate but have a slightly stronger goal-scoring record. Recent matches suggest an open game with both sides capable of scoring, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring encounter under the floodlights.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

Both teams have high BTTS rates: Cardiff at 80%, Stoke City at 60%.
Stoke City have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, Cardiff 60%, indicating frequent high-scoring games.
Average goals in last 10 H2H matches is 2.9, supporting goal-rich encounters.
Cardiff average 16 shots per game with 5.6 on target, Stoke City average 10.8 shots with 3.4 on target.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model projects a 68.1% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, supported by both teams' attacking tendencies and defensive frailties. Cardiff and Stoke City both concede nearly two goals per game, while Stoke's 80% Over 2.5 rate and Cardiff's 60% rate underline frequent high-scoring matches. The average 2.9 goals in their recent head-to-heads further reinforce this expectation. The current at 1.62 offer positive value with a 6.4% edge, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling selection for this fixture.

Model Chance68.1%

Strong positive

Implied Chance61.7%

Positive

Value Edge6.4%

Strong positive

Recent Over 2.5 RatesCardiff 60%, Stoke City 80%

Strong positive

H2H Average Goals2.9 goals per game

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both Cardiff and Stoke City have shown defensive vulnerabilities and strong offensive output recently. The data supports a high-scoring match with both teams likely to find the net, making Over 2.5 Goals a tactically and statistically sound pick for this Championship fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking and defensive dynamics

“This fixture features two sides with attacking intent but defensive lapses, creating fertile ground for goals. Stoke City's high shot volume and Cardiff's willingness to press forward suggest a lively encounter with multiple scoring opportunities.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have high BTTS rates: Cardiff at 80%, Stoke City at 60%.

Stoke City have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, Cardiff 60%, indicating frequent high-scoring games.

Average goals in last 10 H2H matches is 2.9, supporting goal-rich encounters.

Cardiff average 16 shots per game with 5.6 on target, Stoke City average 10.8 shots with 3.4 on target.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.9 per game, supporting a trend of open matches with multiple goals.
This sample suggests a tempo and style conducive to Over 2.5 Goals, with both teams historically contributing to a lively attacking contest.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Cardiff7.75

Avg corners for

Stoke City4

Cardiff12

Avg total corners

Stoke City8

Cardiff2.25

Avg yellow cards

Stoke City1.5

Cardiff17.25

Avg shots

Stoke City12

Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 55% · edge +7.8 pts

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

Cardiff averages 8 corners per game compared to Stoke City's 3, indicating more sustained pressure and attacking territory for Cardiff. Both teams have similar yellow card averages, with Stoke slightly higher at 2.6 per game, suggesting a moderately physical contest. Cardiff's higher shot volume (16 per game) versus Stoke's 10.8 supports an open game with multiple goal attempts.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cardiff1.2

Avg goals scored

Stoke City1.6

Cardiff1.8

Avg goals conceded

Stoke City1.8

Cardiff80%

BTTS rate

Stoke City60%

Cardiff60%

Over 2.5 goals

Stoke City80%

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 68% vs implied 62% · edge +6.4 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 86%

1.17

Check odds @ 1.17

Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%

2.3

Check odds @ 2.3

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%

2.5

Check odds @ 2.5

Both teams have strong BTTS rates, with Cardiff at 80% and Stoke City at 60%, indicating frequent mutual scoring. Their defensive records, conceding 1.8 goals per game each, combined with Stoke's 80% Over 2.5 rate, suggest this match will feature multiple goals and both sides finding the net.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 68% vs implied 62% · edge +6.4 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

Stoke City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

Stoke City to WinBet365 guide price · model 47%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 62%

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%

3.6

Check odds @ 3.6

Cardiff Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

1.68

Check odds @ 1.68

The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.62, reflecting a 61.7% implied chance. The model's 68.1% probability indicates positive value, supported by both teams' attacking and defensive profiles. This price offers a good entry point without being overly short, making it an attractive option for bettors seeking goal markets.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cardiff

LLDDD

Last 50W 3D 2L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 3D 2L

05 Sep 2026A Portsmouth0-2

02 Sep 2026A QPR1-2

29 Aug 2026H Sheffield Utd2-2

22 Aug 2026A Derby2-2

17 Aug 2026H Wrexham1-1

Stoke City

WWLLL

Last 52W 0D 3L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 0D 3L

05 Sep 2026H Charlton4-0

01 Sep 2026H Norwich1-0

29 Aug 2026A Wolves1-4

22 Aug 2026A Southampton1-3

15 Aug 2026H Swansea1-2

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

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Stoke City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

Stoke City to WinBet365 guide price · model 47%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%

3.6

Check odds @ 3.6

Cardiff Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

1.68

Check odds @ 1.68

Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 53%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

Cardiff to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Recent form shows Cardiff with 3 points and Stoke City with 6 points, but both teams have conceded 1.8 goals per game. Cardiff's 60% Over 2.5 rate and Stoke's 80% rate in recent matches reflect a trend toward high-scoring games, reinforcing the likelihood of Over 2.5 Goals in this fixture.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Cardiff wins

7Draws

1Stoke City wins

12 Apr 2025Cardiff v Stoke City0-1

08 Feb 2025Stoke City v Cardiff3-3

14 Dec 2024Stoke City v Cardiff2-2

24 Feb 2024Cardiff v Stoke City2-1

04 Nov 2023Stoke City v Cardiff0-0

22 Apr 2023Cardiff v Stoke City1-1

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 68% vs implied 62% · edge +6.4 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

Stoke City to WinBet365 guide price · model 47%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%

3.6

Check odds @ 3.6

Cardiff to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

The 10 recent meetings between Cardiff and Stoke City have averaged 2.9 goals per game, indicating a history of goal-rich encounters. While the sample size is moderate, it provides a meaningful context that aligns with the current expectation for Over 2.5 Goals in this fixture.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
13	Stoke City	6	5	2	0	3	-1
22	Cardiff	3	5	0	3	2	-3

Cardiff sits 22nd with 3 points, while Stoke City is 13th with 6 points, indicating Stoke's marginally better form. However, league position does not fully capture the attacking and defensive tendencies that suggest a high-scoring game, making standings a background factor rather than a decisive influence.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Cardiff Over 2.5

80%Stoke City Over 2.5

2.9H2H avg goals

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.9 per game, supporting a trend of open matches with multiple goals. This sample suggests a tempo and style conducive to Over 2.5 Goals, with both teams historically contributing to a lively attacking contest.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Cardiff v Stoke City Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Football Stats Hub

Cardiff v Stoke City Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Cardiff

Stoke City

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