Worthing

AFC Hornchurch

National League | Tue 15 Sep, 19:45

Worthing v AFC Hornchurch Stats

Data last updated: Mon 14 Sep 2026, 07:50 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Worthing and AFC Hornchurch meet in a National League clash where attacking intent and goal-scoring opportunities are expected to shape the contest. Worthing has shown a strong tendency for high-scoring games, with an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, while AFC Hornchurch also contributes to open play despite a slightly lower over 2.5 goals rate. Both teams have conceded an average of two goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities that could lead to a goal-rich encounter. The mid-table positioning adds competitive edge without excessive pressure, suggesting a match where offensive play may flourish.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

Worthing has an 80% over 2.5 goals rate this season, indicating frequent high-scoring matches.
AFC Hornchurch concedes an average of 2 goals per game, contributing to open games.
The head-to-head average goals stand at 3.25 across eight meetings, supporting a goal-heavy fixture.
Model projects a 55.4% chance for Over 3.5 Goals with positive value at of 2.38.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a value bet due to Worthing's high scoring and conceding rates combined with AFC Hornchurch's openness in defense. The historical average of 3.25 goals per meeting and recent form data showing Worthing's 80% over 2.5 goals rate reinforce the likelihood of a high-scoring game. The current imply a 42% chance, whereas the model estimates a 55.4% probability, indicating a significant . No data limitations affect in this pick.

Worthing Over 2.5 Goals Rate80%

Strong positive

AFC Hornchurch Goals Against Average2 per game

Positive

H2H Average Goals3.25 goals per match

Positive

Model Probability vs Implied Chance55.4% vs 42%

Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking match as Worthing's offensive tendencies meet AFC Hornchurch's defensive vulnerabilities. The statistical evidence points to a game with multiple goals, supported by both teams' recent scoring and conceding patterns. This match is well-suited for Over 3.5 Goals given the attacking styles and historical goal averages.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match scoring potential

“Worthing's aggressive attacking style combined with AFC Hornchurch's defensive lapses sets the stage for a high-scoring encounter, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling selection.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Worthing has an 80% over 2.5 goals rate this season, indicating frequent high-scoring matches.

AFC Hornchurch concedes an average of 2 goals per game, contributing to open games.

The head-to-head average goals stand at 3.25 across eight meetings, supporting a goal-heavy fixture.

Model projects a 55.4% chance for Over 3.5 Goals with positive value at of 2.38.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

In the last eight head-to-head matches, an average of 3.25 goals per game has been recorded, indicating a historical trend towards high-scoring encounters.
This trend, combined with recent form data, suggests a fast tempo and open play, making Over 2.5 Goals a relevant trend to monitor for this fixture.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Worthing1.8

Avg goals scored

AFC Hornchurch1

Worthing2

Avg goals conceded

AFC Hornchurch2

Worthing80%

BTTS rate

AFC Hornchurch40%

Worthing80%

Over 2.5 goals

AFC Hornchurch60%

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 55% vs implied 42% · edge +13.4 pts

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%

1.17

Check odds @ 1.17

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 31%

2.35

Check odds @ 2.35

Worthing's 80% over 2.5 goals rate and AFC Hornchurch's average of 2 goals conceded per game indicate a propensity for open games with multiple goals. The head-to-head average of 3.25 goals per match further supports the expectation of a goal-laden fixture, although AFC Hornchurch's lower BTTS rate of 40% suggests some caution on both teams scoring.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 64% · edge +9.7 pts

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Load more odds for this section

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

AFC Hornchurch Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

AFC Hornchurch to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%

2.8

Check odds @ 2.8

Worthing Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 55%

1.72

Check odds @ 1.72

Worthing to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%

3.6

Check odds @ 3.6

The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 2.38, reflecting a 42% implied chance, while the model estimates a 55.4% probability. This discrepancy creates a positive of 13.4%, suggesting the market underestimates the likelihood of a high-scoring game based on recent form and historical data.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Worthing

DDLLW

Last 51W 2D 2L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 2D 3L

12 Sep 2026H Barrow2-2

05 Sep 2026A AFC Fylde2-2

31 Aug 2026H Boreham Wood2-3

28 Aug 2026A Tamworth2-3

22 Aug 2026H Wealdstone1-0

AFC Hornchurch

LLWWL

Last 52W 0D 3L

Last 5 record

Last 104W 0D 3L

12 Sep 2026A FC Halifax Town0-3

05 Sep 2026H Forest Green0-1

31 Aug 2026A Boston United3-2

28 Aug 2026H Woking1-0

22 Aug 2026A Carlisle1-4

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 62% · edge +6.9 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 74%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

AFC Hornchurch Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

AFC Hornchurch to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%

2.8

Check odds @ 2.8

Worthing Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 55%

1.72

Check odds @ 1.72

Worthing to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%

3.6

Check odds @ 3.6

Recent form shows Worthing accumulating 5 points with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 2 conceded per game, highlighting their involvement in high-scoring matches. AFC Hornchurch's 6 points with 1 goal scored and 2 conceded per game reflect a more cautious but still open style. Both teams' over 2.5 goals rates (80% and 60%) reinforce the likelihood of a high-scoring encounter.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Worthing wins

2Draws

4AFC Hornchurch wins

28 Feb 2026AFC Hornchurch v Worthing2-1

29 Nov 2025Worthing v AFC Hornchurch5-0

25 Mar 2025AFC Hornchurch v Worthing1-0

07 Sep 2024Worthing v AFC Hornchurch0-0

22 Jan 2022Worthing v AFC Hornchurch1-1

16 Nov 2021AFC Hornchurch v Worthing1-3

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 64% · edge +9.7 pts

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Load more odds for this section

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

AFC Hornchurch to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%

2.8

Check odds @ 2.8

Worthing to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%

3.6

Check odds @ 3.6

The eight previous meetings between Worthing and AFC Hornchurch have produced an average of 3.25 goals per game, supporting the expectation of a high-scoring match. While the sample size is moderate, the consistent goal output in these fixtures adds weight to the Over 3.5 Goals selection.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

National League

Worthing7

Played

AFC Hornchurch7

Worthing1.9

Avg goals for

AFC Hornchurch1.4

Worthing2

Avg goals against

AFC Hornchurch1.6

Worthing1

Clean sheets

AFC Hornchurch2

Best odds for this sectionAFC Hornchurch Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 48% · edge +1.4 pts

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

Load more odds for this section

AFC Hornchurch to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%

2.8

Check odds @ 2.8

Worthing Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 55%

1.72

Check odds @ 1.72

Worthing to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

Season-long statistics reveal Worthing's attack is prolific but coupled with defensive frailty, conceding 2 goals per game. AFC Hornchurch also concedes at a similar rate, suggesting defensive weaknesses on both sides. These factors combine to support the Over 3.5 Goals market as both teams tend to participate in matches with multiple goals.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
8	AFC Hornchurch	12	7	4	0	3	-1
16	Worthing	8	7	2	2	3	-1

Worthing sits 16th with 8 points, while AFC Hornchurch is 8th with 12 points, indicating a mid-table clash without relegation or promotion pressure. This positioning suggests both teams can focus on attacking play without excessive defensive caution, increasing the chance of a goal-rich game.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Worthing Over 2.5

60%AFC Hornchurch Over 2.5

3.25H2H avg goals

In the last eight head-to-head matches, an average of 3.25 goals per game has been recorded, indicating a historical trend towards high-scoring encounters. This trend, combined with recent form data, suggests a fast tempo and open play, making Over 2.5 Goals a relevant trend to monitor for this fixture.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Worthing v AFC Hornchurch Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Worthing

AFC Hornchurch

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Football Stats Hub

Worthing v AFC Hornchurch Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Worthing

AFC Hornchurch

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