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Harrogate Town crestHarrogate Town
v
AFC Fylde crestAFC Fylde

National League | Tue 15 Sep, 19:45

Harrogate Town v AFC Fylde Stats

Data last updated: Mon 14 Sep 2026, 07:50 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This National League clash features two of the division's top attacking sides, Harrogate Town and AFC Fylde, currently sitting second and third respectively. Both teams have shown a strong propensity for high-scoring games, with recent form highlighting an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals. Defensive vulnerabilities on both sides suggest an open, end-to-end encounter under the lights, with both teams eager to assert their promotion credentials in this early-season fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Harrogate Town and AFC Fylde both have an 80% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches
  • Both teams average around 1.4 goals conceded per game, indicating defensive openness
  • The fixture features two of the league's highest-ranked teams, increasing stakes and attacking intent
  • Recent form shows both sides scoring and conceding frequently, supporting a high-goal scenario
  • H2H meetings average 2.4 goals, underscoring a history of open contests

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a value bet with a 55.9% chance against an implied market probability of 45.5%, reflecting a 10.4% . Both Harrogate Town and AFC Fylde have demonstrated attacking potency and defensive frailties, with recent matches frequently surpassing 2.5 goals. The high stakes of this fixture between two top-table teams further encourage offensive play, making a high-scoring game probable. No data limitations or price warnings affect this selection, supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Model Chance55.9%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance45.5%
Positive
Value Edge10.4%
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 Rate80% both teams
Strong positive
Defensive Concession Rate1.4 goals per game each
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both Harrogate Town and AFC Fylde push for early-season points near the top of the table. Their recent form and defensive records suggest a match prone to multiple goals, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling selection for bettors seeking excitement and value in this National League fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical openness

“Both teams have shown a willingness to attack and concede in equal measure, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter that fits the Over 3.5 Goals profile perfectly.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Harrogate Town and AFC Fylde both have an 80% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches

Both teams average around 1.4 goals conceded per game, indicating defensive openness

The fixture features two of the league's highest-ranked teams, increasing stakes and attacking intent

Recent form shows both sides scoring and conceding frequently, supporting a high-goal scenario

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have maintained an 80% rate of games surpassing 2.5 goals, while their head-to-head average goals stand at 2.4.
  • This trend indicates a sustained pattern of open, attacking football conducive to a high-tempo, goal-rich encounter in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Harrogate Town2
Avg goals scored
AFC Fylde2.6
Harrogate Town1.4
Avg goals conceded
AFC Fylde1.4
Harrogate Town80%
BTTS rate
AFC Fylde80%
Harrogate Town80%
Over 2.5 goals
AFC Fylde80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 56% vs implied 46% · edge +10.4 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 88%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 30%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Both teams have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals recently, and their defensive records show susceptibility to conceding. This combination supports a scenario where multiple goals are expected, with both sides likely to find the net given their attacking emphasis and open defensive play.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
AFC Fylde Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 56%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
AFC Fylde to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Harrogate Town Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Harrogate Town to WinBetUK guide price · model 39%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced attractively with a 2.2 guide, reflecting a positive of over 10%. The model's higher probability estimate compared to the market suggests bettors can capitalize on the likelihood of a goal-rich game, with no current price warnings indicating caution.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Harrogate Town

WWWLD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 1L
12 Sep 2026H Tamworth3-1
05 Sep 2026A Scunthorpe2-0
31 Aug 2026H Gateshead2-1
28 Aug 2026A Aldershot Town1-3
22 Aug 2026H Barrow2-2

AFC Fylde

WDWWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 1L
12 Sep 2026A Yeovil Town4-1
05 Sep 2026H Worthing2-2
31 Aug 2026A Solihull Moors3-1
28 Aug 2026H Forest Green2-0
22 Aug 2026A Woking2-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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AFC Fylde Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 56%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
AFC Fylde to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Harrogate Town Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Harrogate Town to WinBetUK guide price · model 39%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Recent form data shows both Harrogate Town and AFC Fylde have consistently participated in high-scoring matches, with an 80% over 2.5 goals rate. Their offensive output combined with defensive concessions underlines the likelihood of a game exceeding 3.5 goals, reflecting their current momentum and tactical openness.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Harrogate Town wins
2Draws
2AFC Fylde wins
29 Feb 2020AFC Fylde v Harrogate Town2-3
26 Aug 2019AFC Fylde v Harrogate Town0-0
01 May 2019AFC Fylde v Harrogate Town3-1
29 Dec 2018Harrogate Town v AFC Fylde1-2
27 Aug 2018AFC Fylde v Harrogate Town0-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
AFC Fylde to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Harrogate Town to WinBetUK guide price · model 39%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The five previous meetings between Harrogate Town and AFC Fylde have averaged 2.4 goals per game, indicating a history of relatively open contests. While not overwhelmingly high, this average supports the potential for multiple goals, especially given both teams' current attacking form and defensive vulnerabilities.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

National League

Harrogate Town7
Played
AFC Fylde7
Harrogate Town2.6
Avg goals for
AFC Fylde2.4
Harrogate Town1.4
Avg goals against
AFC Fylde1.4
Harrogate Town1
Clean sheets
AFC Fylde1
Best odds for this sectionAFC Fylde Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 56% vs implied 44% · edge +12 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
AFC Fylde to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Harrogate Town Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Harrogate Town to WinBetUK guide price · model 39%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Season-long statistics reveal both teams average around 1.4 goals conceded per game while maintaining solid attacking returns. This balance of strong offense and leaky defense supports the expectation of a high-scoring fixture, consistent with the Over 3.5 Goals market.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Harrogate Town1675118
3AFC Fylde1474217
Harrogate Town and AFC Fylde occupy second and third place respectively, intensifying the competitive stakes. Their proximity in the table suggests both will push aggressively for victory, increasing the likelihood of an open game with multiple goals as they seek to consolidate top positions.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Harrogate Town Over 2.5
80%AFC Fylde Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have maintained an 80% rate of games surpassing 2.5 goals, while their head-to-head average goals stand at 2.4. This trend indicates a sustained pattern of open, attacking football conducive to a high-tempo, goal-rich encounter in this fixture.

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Fixture links

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