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Wisla Krakow crestWisla Krakow
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Jagiellonia crestJagiellonia

Ekstraklasa | Fri 11 Sep, 19:30

Wisla Krakow v Jagiellonia Stats

Data last updated: Thu 10 Sep 2026, 08:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Ekstraklasa fixture features Jagiellonia visiting Wisla Krakow in a closely contested clash. Both teams sit near the top of the table, with Jagiellonia holding a slight edge in points and recent form. Jagiellonia's attack has been more productive, averaging 2 goals per game compared to Wisla Krakow's 1.6, while their defensive record is somewhat more porous. The match promises tactical intensity as both sides seek to consolidate their positions early in the season, with Jagiellonia aiming to leverage their offensive momentum on the road.

BT4Y best bet

Jagiellonia to Win

  • Jagiellonia holds a slight points advantage and better recent form.
  • Jagiellonia averages 2 goals per game, outscoring Wisla Krakow's 1.6.
  • Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate, indicating frequent goal exchanges.
  • Jagiellonia's average shots on target (4.6) surpass Wisla Krakow's (3.75).
  • Jagiellonia's away win show positive value with an 11.5% edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Jagiellonia to win due to their superior attacking output and recent form. Their 46.2% significantly exceeds the implied market chance of 34.7%, indicating clear value at of 2.88. Jagiellonia's higher shots on target and goal scoring rates, combined with a strong away performance, underpin this . No data limitations affect this assessment, making the pick a solid football and value-based choice.

Model Chance46.2%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance34.7%
Neutral
Value Edge11.5%
Strong positive
Recent Goals For2.0 per game
Positive
Shots on Target4.6 per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Jagiellonia's attacking efficiency and recent momentum make them the tactical and statistical favorite to secure victory. Their ability to generate more shots on target and convert chances away from home provides a compelling edge over Wisla Krakow, who have been less consistent in front of goal.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and statistical advantage for Jagiellonia

“Jagiellonia's offensive dynamism and superior shot creation on the road position them well to capitalize on this fixture, especially given Wisla Krakow's defensive lapses. This match should favor the visitors tactically and statistically.”

Key Data Signals

Jagiellonia to Win evidence

Jagiellonia holds a slight points advantage and better recent form.

Jagiellonia averages 2 goals per game, outscoring Wisla Krakow's 1.6.

Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate, indicating frequent goal exchanges.

Jagiellonia's average shots on target (4.6) surpass Wisla Krakow's (3.75).

What To Watch In The Data

Jagiellonia to Win notes

  • In the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.44, supporting an expectation of a moderately high-scoring game.
  • Both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rates (Wisla Krakow 60%, Jagiellonia 80%) reinforce the likelihood of an open match with multiple goal opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Wisla Krakow1.6
Avg goals scored
Jagiellonia2
Wisla Krakow1.2
Avg goals conceded
Jagiellonia1.6
Wisla Krakow80%
BTTS rate
Jagiellonia80%
Wisla Krakow60%
Over 2.5 goals
Jagiellonia80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 83%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 65%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 39%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate, indicating a strong likelihood of goals from both sides. Jagiellonia's average of 2 goals per game combined with Wisla Krakow's 1.6 suggests an open game with multiple scoring opportunities, supporting a goal-rich encounter.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickJagiellonia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 35% · edge +11.5 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Jagiellonia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 65%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The for Jagiellonia to win at 2.88 offer clear value compared to the model's 46.2% chance, reflecting an 11.5% . This pricing suggests the market underestimates Jagiellonia's capacity to secure three points, making the bet attractive without price sensitivity concerns.

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Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Wisla Krakow4.2
Avg corners for
Jagiellonia4.4
Wisla Krakow9.6
Avg total corners
Jagiellonia9.2
Wisla Krakow2.6
Avg yellow cards
Jagiellonia2.2
Wisla Krakow14.8
Avg shots
Jagiellonia14.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 58% · edge -0.9 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Jagiellonia averages slightly more corners (4.4) and shots on target (4.6) than Wisla Krakow, reflecting their offensive pressure. Both teams maintain moderate disciplinary records, with Wisla Krakow averaging 2.75 yellow cards and Jagiellonia 2.2, suggesting a competitive but not overly aggressive match.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Wisla Krakow

DWDLW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 2L
05 Sep 2026A Korona Kielce1-1
29 Aug 2026H Wieczysta Kraków2-0
23 Aug 2026A Pogon Szczecin2-2
16 Aug 2026A Gornik Zabrze1-2
07 Aug 2026H Wisla Plock2-1

Jagiellonia

WLWLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 2L
06 Sep 2026H Slask Wroclaw2-1
03 Sep 2026A Lech Poznan1-2
30 Aug 2026A Raków Częstochowa5-2
09 Aug 2026H Widzew Łódź0-2
31 Jul 2026A Motor Lublin2-1
Market aligned with main pickJagiellonia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 35% · edge +11.5 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Jagiellonia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Jagiellonia's recent form shows a slight edge with 9 points compared to Wisla Krakow's 8, underpinned by a higher goal scoring rate. This momentum, combined with their ability to create more shots on target, suggests they are better positioned to control the match tempo and capitalize on scoring chances.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Wisla Krakow wins
3Draws
4Jagiellonia wins
02 Apr 2025Jagiellonia v Wisla Krakow1-0
07 May 2022Wisla Krakow v Jagiellonia0-0
20 Nov 2021Jagiellonia v Wisla Krakow3-1
07 Feb 2021Wisla Krakow v Jagiellonia2-0
24 Aug 2020Jagiellonia v Wisla Krakow1-1
08 Feb 2020Wisla Krakow v Jagiellonia3-0
Market aligned with main pickJagiellonia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 35% · edge +11.5 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 65%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The head-to-head sample of nine matches shows an average of 2.44 goals per game, indicating a moderately open encounter historically. While past results are balanced, Jagiellonia's current form and attacking metrics provide a stronger basis for their favored status in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Ekstraklasa

Wisla Krakow7
Played
Jagiellonia6
Wisla Krakow1.9
Avg goals for
Jagiellonia1.8
Wisla Krakow1.6
Avg goals against
Jagiellonia1.3
Wisla Krakow1
Clean sheets
Jagiellonia1
Market aligned with main pickJagiellonia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 35% · edge +11.5 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Load more odds for this section
Jagiellonia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over the season, Jagiellonia has demonstrated a stronger offensive output with 2 goals per game but concedes more at 1.6 per match. Wisla Krakow's lower goals conceded (1.2) contrasts with their less prolific attack. This balance indicates Jagiellonia's games tend to be more open and goal-rich, favoring their winning chances.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Jagiellonia1264023
5Wisla Krakow1173222
Jagiellonia sits just above Wisla Krakow in the standings, holding 12 points to Wisla's 11. This close table position highlights the competitive nature of the fixture, with Jagiellonia's slight advantage reflecting their recent consistency and form in the league.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Wisla Krakow Over 2.5
80%Jagiellonia Over 2.5
2.44H2H avg goals
In the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.44, supporting an expectation of a moderately high-scoring game. Both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rates (Wisla Krakow 60%, Jagiellonia 80%) reinforce the likelihood of an open match with multiple goal opportunities.

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Prediction context

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