Football Stats Hub

West Ham crestWest Ham
v
Fulham crestFulham

League Cup | Tue 15 Sep, 19:45

West Ham v Fulham Stats

Data last updated: Mon 14 Sep 2026, 07:49 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This League Cup clash features West Ham visiting Fulham at Craven Cottage, where Fulham have been strong at home with five wins in their last seven matches. West Ham arrive with defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 54 league goals this season, but they remain potent on the counterattack led by Jarrod Bowen. Fulham's tactical approach emphasizes possession control and wide play, aiming to exploit West Ham's defensive weaknesses, particularly on set pieces. The fixture promises an intense London derby atmosphere with both teams capable of scoring, setting the stage for an open, high-tempo encounter.

BT4Y best bet

West Ham Win & Over 2.5 Goals

  • West Ham concedes an average of 1.87 goals per game this season, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Fulham have won 5 of their last 7 home matches, showing strong home form.
  • Both teams have scored in Fulham's last six home games, suggesting BTTS likelihood.
  • West Ham's Jarrod Bowen and Fulham's Raul Jiménez are key attacking threats.
  • the match context's main pick combines West Ham to win with over 2.5 goals at attractive 7/1 .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates West Ham Win & Over 2.5 Goals highly with a 42.4% chance versus an implied market chance of 12.5%, highlighting strong value at 7/1 . West Ham's attacking potency, led by players like J. Castellanos, combined with their defensive struggles, supports a high-scoring game where West Ham can edge a win. The model is moderate at 55%, reflecting some uncertainty but a clear edge given West Ham's goal threat and the fixture's open nature. No data limitations affect this analysis.

Model Chance42.4%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance12.5%
Neutral
Value Edge29.9%
Strong positive
Confidence Level55%
Positive
West Ham Defensive RecordConcede 1.87 goals per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

West Ham's attacking talent and the fixture's open nature make the combined bet of a West Ham win with over 2.5 goals a compelling choice. Despite defensive concerns, West Ham's ability to score and the likelihood of an open game with both teams pushing forward underpin this selection. The data and tactical context align well with this outcome in a high-stakes London derby.

Main risk

Conceding 1.87 goals per game across all competitions, West Ham's back line remains a major concern for Nuno Espírito Santo.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and goal volume

“West Ham's offensive firepower combined with Fulham's home attacking sets the stage for a thrilling, high-scoring encounter where West Ham can capitalize on defensive lapses to secure a valuable win.”

Key Data Signals

West Ham Win & Over 2.5 Goals evidence

West Ham concedes an average of 1.87 goals per game this season, indicating defensive frailty.

Fulham have won 5 of their last 7 home matches, showing strong home form.

Both teams have scored in Fulham's last six home games, suggesting BTTS likelihood.

West Ham's Jarrod Bowen and Fulham's Raul Jiménez are key attacking threats.

What To Watch In The Data

West Ham Win & Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.3, indicating a moderately high scoring trend.
  • Combined with recent form showing 100% over 2.5 goals for both teams, the trend supports expectations of a fast-paced, goal-rich encounter with multiple scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

West Ham3.5
Avg goals scored
Fulham3
West Ham1
Avg goals conceded
Fulham0
West Ham100%
BTTS rate
Fulham0%
West Ham100%
Over 2.5 goals
Fulham100%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Fulham's last six home matches have all seen both teams score, while West Ham have netted at least twice in their last four away league games. This pattern, combined with West Ham's defensive vulnerabilities, supports a high probability of BTTS and multiple goals in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickWest Ham to WinBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
West Ham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 48%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The current 7/1 for West Ham Win & Over 2.5 Goals represent significant value compared to the model's 42.4% chance, indicating a strong price opportunity. This price sensitivity suggests bettors should consider standard stakes to capitalize on the favorable without overexposure.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

West Ham4
Avg corners for
Fulham10
West Ham8.5
Avg total corners
Fulham14
West Ham0.5
Avg yellow cards
Fulham1
West Ham15
Avg shots
Fulham29
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · Model 48% vs implied 44% · edge +3.4 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Fulham average 10 corners per game, reflecting sustained pressure and wide attacks, while West Ham average 4 corners but generate 15 shots per match, indicating offensive intent. The low card averages suggest a relatively disciplined game, but set-piece opportunities will be critical given West Ham's defensive weaknesses.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

West Ham

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
25 Aug 2026A Southampton4-1
08 Aug 2026H Portsmouth3-1

Fulham

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
27 Aug 2026H AFC Wimbledon3-0
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
West Ham to WinBet365 guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
West Ham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
West Ham have scored 3.5 goals and conceded just 1 in recent matches, maintaining a 100% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating strong attacking form. Fulham's recent form shows 3 goals scored and no goals conceded, but their 0% BTTS rate contrasts with West Ham's 100%, highlighting the fixture's potential for goals and West Ham's offensive edge.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4West Ham wins
3Draws
3Fulham wins
04 Mar 2026Fulham v West Ham0-1
27 Dec 2025West Ham v Fulham0-1
14 Jan 2025West Ham v Fulham3-2
14 Sep 2024Fulham v West Ham1-1
14 Apr 2024West Ham v Fulham0-2
10 Dec 2023Fulham v West Ham5-0
Market aligned with main pickWest Ham to WinBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows an average of 2.3 goals per game, suggesting a history of moderately open games. While Fulham's home advantage is notable, West Ham's recent attacking form and goal threat provide a solid basis for expecting a competitive match with goals from both sides.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

League Cup

West Ham2
Played
Fulham1
West Ham3.5
Avg goals for
Fulham3
West Ham1
Avg goals against
Fulham0
West Ham0
Clean sheets
Fulham1
Market aligned with main pickWest Ham to WinBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
West Ham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
West Ham's season-long defensive struggles, conceding 1.87 goals per game, contrast with their consistent goal scoring, supporting the over 2.5 goals angle. Fulham's steadier defensive record and strong home scoring underpin the likelihood of a competitive, high-scoring match favoring West Ham's attacking capabilities.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%West Ham Over 2.5
100%Fulham Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.3, indicating a moderately high scoring trend. Combined with recent form showing 100% over 2.5 goals for both teams, the trend supports expectations of a fast-paced, goal-rich encounter with multiple scoring opportunities.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

West Ham v Fulham prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

More stats pages

Peterborough v BarnsleyLeague Cup · Tue 15 Sep 19:30Liverpool v TottenhamLeague Cup · Tue 15 Sep 20:00Reading v BrentfordLeague Cup · Tue 15 Sep 20:00Ipswich v ArsenalLeague Cup · Tue 15 Sep 20:00

Competition and hubs

related match predictioncorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centre

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre