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Walsall crestWalsall
v
Stevenage crestStevenage

EFL Trophy | Tue 22 Sep, 19:00

Walsall v Stevenage Stats

Data last updated: Mon 21 Sep 2026, 08:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Walsall and Stevenage meet in the EFL Trophy with both sides likely to field rotated squads, adding unpredictability to the match dynamics. Recent form data is limited, but both teams have shown attacking intent in cup competitions, suggesting an open game. The fixture's stakes encourage offensive play, as progression is key, and defensive solidity may be compromised. This context sets the stage for a potentially high-scoring encounter, with both teams expected to seek early control and goal-scoring opportunities in a contest where tactical caution is less pronounced.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams have shown attacking intent in recent cup matches, favoring goal opportunities.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.6 per game over the last 10 meetings.
  • Key Stevenage attackers like J. Kemp have strong shooting and goal threat profiles.
  • Walsall attackers A. Dallas contribute significant shots on target, boosting scoring chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model projects a 52.2% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, slightly above the implied market chance of 48.1%, indicating a small positive . The head-to-head average of 2.6 goals per game supports the likelihood of multiple goals. Key attacking players from both sides demonstrate strong shot volumes and goal threat metrics, suggesting an open game with scoring opportunities. Limited data for both teams means final line-ups and tactical setups will influence the outcome, but the attacking profiles and competition context favor a higher-scoring match.

Model Chance52.2%
Positive
Implied Market Chance48.1%
Neutral
Head-to-Head Average Goals2.6 goals per game
Positive
Key Player Shooting StatsHigh shots and shots on target from attackers
Positive
Data QualityLimited data for both teams
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both Walsall and Stevenage aim to progress in the EFL Trophy. The presence of prolific shooters like J. Kemp for Stevenage, combined with Walsall's attacking efforts, suggests multiple goals. The match context and player profiles align well with an Over 2.5 Goals outcome, making it a tactically and statistically supported selection.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking talent and match stakes

“This fixture's attacking talent and competition stakes point towards a lively game with several goals, especially given the offensive roles of key players on both sides.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have shown attacking intent in recent cup matches, favoring goal opportunities.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.6 per game over the last 10 meetings.

Key Stevenage attackers like J. Kemp have strong shooting and goal threat profiles.

Walsall attackers A. Dallas contribute significant shots on target, boosting scoring chances.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.6, indicating a tendency towards matches with multiple goals.
  • This trend, combined with the attacking profiles of key players and competition stakes, suggests a match tempo conducive to Over 2.5 Goals.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Walsall wins
4Draws
3Stevenage wins
02 Dec 2025Stevenage v Walsall1-2
11 Mar 2023Stevenage v Walsall3-1
13 Aug 2022Walsall v Stevenage1-1
08 Jan 2022Stevenage v Walsall3-1
28 Aug 2021Walsall v Stevenage1-0
20 Feb 2021Stevenage v Walsall1-1
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 48% · edge +4.1 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Stevenage to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Walsall to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
3
Check odds @ 3
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The head-to-head record between Walsall and Stevenage features an average of 2.6 goals per game across 10 matches, reflecting a history of relatively open contests. While not definitive, this trend supports the expectation of multiple goals in this fixture, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals selection.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Walsall

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Walsall yet.

Stevenage

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Stevenage yet.

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 74% · edge -4.8 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Walsall Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Stevenage Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Stevenage to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Walsall to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
3
Check odds @ 3
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Recent form data is sparse, but both teams have demonstrated attacking intent in cup competitions, suggesting a propensity for open play and goal opportunities. This aligns with the Over 2.5 Goals projection, as both sides are likely to prioritize offense to secure progression in the tournament.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Walsall-
Avg goals scored
Stevenage-
Walsall-
Avg goals conceded
Stevenage-
Walsall-
BTTS rate
Stevenage-
Walsall-
Over 2.5 goals
Stevenage-
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 48% · edge +4.1 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Goal trends suggest a moderately high-scoring fixture, supported by an average of 2.6 goals in the last 10 head-to-head matches. Both teams possess attacking players with strong shooting stats, increasing the likelihood of goals from multiple sources and the possibility of both teams scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 48% · edge +4.1 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Walsall Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Stevenage Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Stevenage to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Walsall to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
3
Check odds @ 3
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The Over 2.5 Goals market shows a slight with model probability at 52.2% versus the market's 48.1%, indicating the price is reasonable and worth consideration. The of 2.08 reflect a balanced view but lean towards a moderately open game, with potential for more goals if attacking players perform as expected.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

EFL Trophy

Walsall0
Played
Stevenage0
Walsall0
Avg goals for
Stevenage0
Walsall0
Avg goals against
Stevenage0
Walsall0
Clean sheets
Stevenage0
Best odds for this sectionWalsall Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 48% · edge -3.1 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Load more odds for this section
Stevenage Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Stevenage to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Walsall to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
3
Check odds @ 3
Season-long attacking and defensive data is limited, but available player shooting and goal threat metrics indicate both teams have offensive capabilities that can generate multiple goals. Defensive uncertainties due to squad rotation in the EFL Trophy further support the likelihood of a higher-scoring match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Walsall Over 2.5
-Stevenage Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.6, indicating a tendency towards matches with multiple goals. This trend, combined with the attacking profiles of key players and competition stakes, suggests a match tempo conducive to Over 2.5 Goals.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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