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Palmeiras crestPalmeiras

Serie A | Thu 30 Jul, 01:30

Vitoria v Palmeiras Stats

Data last updated: Wed 29 Jul 2026, 03:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Palmeiras arrive at this Serie A fixture in strong form, leading the league with 44 points and boasting a solid defensive record with just 0.8 goals conceded per game. Vitoria, positioned 13th with 26 points, have struggled offensively, averaging only 0.8 goals per match. Palmeiras' tactical setup emphasizes control and efficient attack, leveraging key players like Vitor Roque and Andreas Pereira to create chances. Vitoria will need to overcome recent scoring difficulties and defensive vulnerabilities to challenge the league leaders on their ground.

BT4Y best bet

Palmeiras to Win

  • Palmeiras top the Serie A standings with 44 points, showing consistent winning form.
  • Palmeiras average 1.8 goals scored per game versus Vitoria's 0.8, indicating stronger attack.
  • Vitoria have a low BTTS rate of 20%, while Palmeiras have 60%, reflecting contrasting offensive styles.
  • Palmeiras maintain a better defensive record, conceding 0.8 goals per game compared to Vitoria's 1.0.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Palmeiras are favored with a 62.2% to win, supported by their league-leading form and superior goal-scoring and defensive stats. Their attack, led by prolific forward Vitor Roque, averages nearly two shots on target per 90 minutes, while midfield creativity from Andreas Pereira enhances chance creation. Vitoria's lower scoring rate and mid-table position reduce their likelihood of causing an upset. The model is solid, reflecting Palmeiras' consistent performances and tactical superiority, making the away win a well-supported selection.

Model Win Probability62.2%
Strong positive
Palmeiras Goals For per Game1.8
Strong positive
Vitoria Goals For per Game0.8
Negative
Palmeiras Defensive Record0.8 goals conceded per game
Positive
Vitoria Defensive Record1.0 goals conceded per game
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Palmeiras' superior league position and attacking efficiency make them the clear favorites in this Serie A clash. Their ability to control possession and create quality chances, combined with Vitoria's struggles in front of goal, suggests Palmeiras will secure the win. The data underlines Palmeiras' consistency and goal threat as key factors for success.

Main risk

Palmeiras carry the stronger scoring threat, but Vitoria must contribute for BTTS to land.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Palmeiras attacking and tactical strength

“Palmeiras' attacking trio, spearheaded by Vitor Roque, offers a potent threat that Vitoria's defense has struggled to contain this season. Their tactical discipline and creativity in midfield provide a solid foundation for an away victory.”

Key Data Signals

Palmeiras to Win evidence

Palmeiras top the Serie A standings with 44 points, showing consistent winning form.

Palmeiras average 1.8 goals scored per game versus Vitoria's 0.8, indicating stronger attack.

Vitoria have a low BTTS rate of 20%, while Palmeiras have 60%, reflecting contrasting offensive styles.

Palmeiras maintain a better defensive record, conceding 0.8 goals per game compared to Vitoria's 1.0.

What To Watch In The Data

Palmeiras to Win notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.4, suggesting a tendency for open games with multiple goals.
  • Palmeiras' recent matches also show a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating a likelihood of a high-tempo, goal-rich encounter in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Vitoria0.8
Avg goals scored
Palmeiras1.8
Vitoria1
Avg goals conceded
Palmeiras0.8
Vitoria20%
BTTS rate
Palmeiras60%
Vitoria20%
Over 2.5 goals
Palmeiras60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 52% · edge +4.3 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 31%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Palmeiras have a 60% BTTS rate and average 1.8 goals per game, indicating a balanced attack and defense that often leads to goals on both sides. Vitoria's lower BTTS rate of 20% and modest scoring suggest fewer goals, but Palmeiras' offensive pressure could unlock Vitoria's defense, supporting a goal-rich encounter.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 51% · edge +10.9 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Palmeiras Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
The current market for Palmeiras to win reflects their strong of 62.2%, aligning well with their league control and form. While no explicit are provided, the selection appears price-sensitive but justified by Palmeiras' consistent performances and superior squad quality.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Vitoria v Palmeirascorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Vitoria4.8
Avg corners for
Palmeiras5.25
Vitoria9.2
Avg total corners
Palmeiras11
Vitoria1.6
Avg yellow cards
Palmeiras2.5
Vitoria12.6
Avg shots
Palmeiras15
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Palmeiras average more corners (5.4) and shots (15.2) per game than Vitoria, reflecting territorial control and sustained attacking pressure. Vitoria's higher yellow card average (1.6 vs. Palmeiras' 2.4) suggests Palmeiras may face some physical resistance but also indicates potential for set-piece opportunities.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Vitoria

LDWLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
26 Jul 2026A Remo0-2
23 Jul 2026A Botafogo0-0
16 Jul 2026H Vasco DA Gama1-0
31 May 2026A Santos1-3
23 May 2026H Internacional2-0

Palmeiras

LWWWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
26 Jul 2026H Atletico-MG1-2
22 Jul 2026A Coritiba3-1
31 May 2026H Chapecoense-sc1-0
24 May 2026A Flamengo3-0
17 May 2026H Cruzeiro1-1
Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 51% · edge +10.9 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Palmeiras Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Palmeiras have accumulated 10 points recently compared to Vitoria's 7, showcasing better momentum and . Palmeiras' higher goal output and defensive solidity in recent matches underpin their favored status, while Vitoria's struggles to score consistently limit their chances of upsetting the leaders.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Vitoria wins
2Draws
6Palmeiras wins
05 Feb 2026Palmeiras v Vitoria5-1
19 Nov 2025Palmeiras v Vitoria0-0
03 Aug 2025Vitoria v Palmeiras2-2
27 Jul 2024Palmeiras v Vitoria0-2
14 Apr 2024Vitoria v Palmeiras0-1
02 Dec 2018Palmeiras v Vitoria3-2
Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 51% · edge +10.9 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
The last 10 meetings between Palmeiras and Vitoria have averaged 3.4 goals per game, indicating historically open contests. While this supports the potential for goals, the head-to-head record alone is less decisive than current form and league position in predicting the outcome.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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Season team stats

Serie A

Vitoria20
Played
Palmeiras20
Vitoria1.1
Avg goals for
Palmeiras1.7
Vitoria1.4
Avg goals against
Palmeiras0.8
Vitoria8
Clean sheets
Palmeiras7
Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 51% · edge +10.9 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Palmeiras Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Palmeiras' season-long stats highlight a potent attack averaging 1.8 goals per game and a tight defense conceding only 0.8 goals, supporting their league-leading position. Vitoria's lower scoring and higher goals conceded reflect a mid-table team with defensive vulnerabilities, reinforcing Palmeiras' edge.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Palmeiras4420135218
13Vitoria2620758-5
Palmeiras lead the Serie A standings with 44 points, exerting pressure on challengers and demonstrating consistency. Vitoria's 13th place and 26 points indicate a team battling for stability rather than title contention, making Palmeiras the logical favorite based on league context.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Vitoria Over 2.5
60%Palmeiras Over 2.5
3.4H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.4, suggesting a tendency for open games with multiple goals. Palmeiras' recent matches also show a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating a likelihood of a high-tempo, goal-rich encounter in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Vitoria v Palmeiras prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Competition and hubs

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