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Venezia crestVenezia
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Fiorentina crestFiorentina

Serie A | Fri 11 Sep, 19:45

Venezia v Fiorentina Stats

Data last updated: Thu 10 Sep 2026, 08:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Venezia and Fiorentina meet in Serie A with both sides yet to gain points after three matches. Fiorentina, under new manager Paolo Vanoli, have shown strong attacking intent with 39 shots on goal in their last two games despite scoring only once. Venezia have struggled defensively, conceding seven goals in three league games, but have shown attacking promise by scoring twice in their last match. Both teams face defensive vulnerabilities and offensive potential, setting the stage for an open contest where Fiorentina's superior chance creation could secure a win while both sides find the net.

BT4Y match pick

Fiorentina to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Fiorentina generated 39 shots on goal across last two matches but scored only once.
  • Venezia conceded 7 goals in 3 Serie A games, showing defensive frailty.
  • Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last three matches.
  • Venezia scored twice in their last match after a scoreless start to the season.
  • Fiorentina's attacking pressure contrasts with Venezia's defensive injuries and instability.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The selection reflects Fiorentina's strong attacking volume against a vulnerable Venezia defense, combined with both teams' recent inability to keep clean sheets. Despite Fiorentina's poor finishing, their sustained shot creation suggests goals are likely. Venezia's recent scoring and defensive lapses support the likelihood of both teams scoring. The current price is short relative to the , indicating a price-sensitive pick. Reduced staking or waiting for improvement is advised. Limited injuries and line-up clarity could enhance value later.

Fiorentina Attacking Volume39 shots in last 2 games
Strong positive
Venezia Defensive Weakness7 goals conceded in 3 games
Strong positive
Both Teams Scoring HistoryNo clean sheets in last 3 matches each
Positive
Price SensitivityImplied chance 23.8% vs model 18.4%
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Fiorentina's high volume of shots and Venezia's defensive injuries create a tactical scenario favoring an away win with goals at both ends. Fiorentina's ability to generate chances despite poor finishing and Venezia's recent scoring form underpin this selection as a balanced football read supported by data.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and data-driven match analysis

“Fiorentina's persistent attacking pressure against a depleted Venezia defense sets up a match where goals from both sides are highly plausible, making the win-and-BTTS combination a compelling football-led choice despite price caution.”

Key Data Signals

Fiorentina to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Fiorentina generated 39 shots on goal across last two matches but scored only once.

Venezia conceded 7 goals in 3 Serie A games, showing defensive frailty.

Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last three matches.

Venezia scored twice in their last match after a scoreless start to the season.

What To Watch In The Data

Fiorentina to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is low at 1.25 per game, but recent form and season data suggest a departure from tight defenses.
  • Fiorentina's high shot volumes and Venezia's defensive injuries point towards a higher tempo and more goal-scoring opportunities, supporting an Over 2.5 goals trend in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Venezia0.67
Avg goals scored
Fiorentina0.33
Venezia2.33
Avg goals conceded
Fiorentina3
Venezia33%
BTTS rate
Fiorentina33%
Venezia33%
Over 2.5 goals
Fiorentina100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 49% vs implied 46% · edge +3.2 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Both teams have failed to keep clean sheets in their last three matches, with Venezia conceding seven goals and Fiorentina nine. Fiorentina's high shot volume contrasts with their low scoring return, while Venezia's recent two-goal match shows attacking potential. These factors combine to support a scenario where both teams score in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFiorentina Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 53% · edge -8.3 pts
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Fiorentina to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The current of 4.2 for Fiorentina to Win & Both Teams to Score imply a 23.8% chance, which is higher than the model's 18.4% probability, indicating the price is short. This suggests a price-sensitive opportunity where the football read is strong but staking should be cautious or delayed until improve or line-ups confirm.

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Useful next reads

Serie A hubfull betting preview for Venezia v Fiorentinacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Venezia3.33
Avg corners for
Fiorentina4.67
Venezia6.67
Avg total corners
Fiorentina8.67
Venezia2.67
Avg yellow cards
Fiorentina1.67
Venezia14.33
Avg shots
Fiorentina16
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 35% vs implied 48% · edge -12.5 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Fiorentina average 4.67 corners and 16 shots per game, reflecting sustained attacking pressure, while Venezia average 3.33 corners and 14.33 shots, showing moderate offensive activity. Both teams have moderate yellow card averages, indicating a competitive but not overly aggressive match environment conducive to open play and multiple goal attempts.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Venezia

LLL
Last 50W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 3L
06 Sep 2026A Frosinone2-3
28 Aug 2026A AC Milan0-2
23 Aug 2026H Lecce0-2

Fiorentina

LLL
Last 50W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 3L
05 Sep 2026H Torino1-2
29 Aug 2026H Frosinone0-3
24 Aug 2026A AS Roma0-4
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 74% · edge -10.3 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Fiorentina Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Fiorentina to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Both teams have lost all three opening Serie A matches, with Fiorentina scoring only once despite high shot volumes, and Venezia conceding heavily but showing recent attacking signs by scoring twice in their last match. This form suggests a match where execution and defensive lapses will be decisive, aligning with the bet on Fiorentina to win and both teams to score.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Venezia wins
1Draws
1Fiorentina wins
12 May 2025Venezia v Fiorentina2-1
25 Aug 2024Fiorentina v Venezia0-0
16 Apr 2022Fiorentina v Venezia1-0
18 Oct 2021Venezia v Fiorentina1-0
Market aligned with main pickFiorentina to WinBet365 guide price · Model 35% vs implied 44% · edge -8.4 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The recent four meetings between Venezia and Fiorentina have averaged only 1.25 goals per game, indicating historically low-scoring encounters. However, current season form and defensive vulnerabilities suggest this match may break from that pattern, making the head-to-head record a limited guide compared to present attacking and defensive dynamics.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Venezia3
Played
Fiorentina3
Venezia0.7
Avg goals for
Fiorentina0.3
Venezia2.3
Avg goals against
Fiorentina3
Venezia0
Clean sheets
Fiorentina0
Market aligned with main pickFiorentina Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 53% · edge -8.3 pts
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Load more odds for this section
Fiorentina to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Fiorentina's season stats reveal a team creating many chances but struggling to convert, with a high shots on target rate but low goals scored. Venezia's defensive record is poor, conceding seven goals in three games, while their attack has started to find form. These season-long trends support a match with goals at both ends and Fiorentina's attacking edge leading to victory.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
18Venezia03003-5
20Fiorentina03003-8
Both Venezia and Fiorentina sit at the bottom of the Serie A table with zero points after three matches, reflecting early-season struggles. While standings highlight pressure on both sides, the tactical and attacking data provide a clearer basis for expecting an open game with goals, rather than defensive caution.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Venezia Over 2.5
100%Fiorentina Over 2.5
1.25H2H avg goals
Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is low at 1.25 per game, but recent form and season data suggest a departure from tight defenses. Fiorentina's high shot volumes and Venezia's defensive injuries point towards a higher tempo and more goal-scoring opportunities, supporting an Over 2.5 goals trend in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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