Football Stats Hub

Venezia crestVenezia
v
Fiorentina crestFiorentina

Serie A | Fri 11 Sep, 19:45

Venezia v Fiorentina Stats

Data last updated: Sat 03 Oct 2026, 21:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Venezia face Fiorentina in Serie A on Fri 11 Sep, 19:45. Venezia's defence has conceded seven goals in three league games and suffers key injuries, making both teams likely to score. Venezia and Fiorentina show similar overall levels, making execution more important than raw form.

BT4Y match pick

Fiorentina to win and both teams to score

  • At 16/5, Fiorentina to win and both teams to score implies roughly 24%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 20%.
  • Venezia's recent scoring and Fiorentina's conceded goals make this scoreline realistic, though correct-score bets are fragile to any score changes or clean sheets.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 33% for Venezia and 33% for Fiorentina.
  • Fiorentina to win and both teams to score needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 0.67 for Venezia and 0.33 for Fiorentina are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 20% for Fiorentina to win and both teams to score sits against roughly 24% implied by the current price. The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 33% for Venezia and 33% for Fiorentina. Venezia's recent scoring and Fiorentina's conceded goals make this scoreline realistic, though correct-score bets are fragile to any score changes or clean sheets.

Model chance vs price20% model chance against roughly 24% implied
Negative
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
Fiorentina to win and both teams to score needs both.Visible data support
Positive
Venezia's recent scoring and Fiorentina's conceded goals make this.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Fiorentina Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because venezia's recent scoring and Fiorentina's conceded goals make this scoreline realistic, though correct-score bets are fragile to any score changes or clean sheets. The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 33% for Venezia and 33% for Fiorentina. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Fiorentina to win and both teams to score evidence

Venezia's recent scoring and Fiorentina's conceded goals make this scoreline realistic, though correct-score bets are fragile to any.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 33% for Venezia and 33% for Fiorentina.

Fiorentina Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 0.67 for Venezia and 0.33 for Fiorentina are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Fiorentina to win and both teams to score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Venezia0.67
Avg goals scored
Fiorentina0.33
Venezia2.33
Avg goals conceded
Fiorentina3
Venezia33%
BTTS rate
Fiorentina33%
Venezia33%
Over 2.5 goals
Fiorentina100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 49% vs implied 46% · edge +3.2 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS No is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: Venezia concede 2.33 on average and Fiorentina score 0.33, so the clean-sheet route has a data base.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFiorentina Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 54% · edge -9.2 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Fiorentina to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Fiorentina Draw No Bet is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A hubfull betting preview for Venezia v Fiorentinacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Venezia

LLL
Last 50W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 3L
06 Sep 2026A Frosinone2-3
28 Aug 2026A AC Milan0-2
23 Aug 2026H Lecce0-2

Fiorentina

LLL
Last 50W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 3L
05 Sep 2026H Torino1-2
29 Aug 2026H Frosinone0-3
24 Aug 2026A AS Roma0-4
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 74% · edge -10.3 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Fiorentina Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Fiorentina to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Venezia Over 2.5
100%Fiorentina Over 2.5
1.25H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Venezia sit at 33% and Fiorentina sit at 100% with the H2H average at 1.25 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Loading deeper match data…