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Vasco DA Gama crestVasco DA Gama
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Santa Fe crestSanta Fe

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Tue 15 Sep, 23:00

Vasco DA Gama v Santa Fe Stats

Data last updated: Mon 14 Sep 2026, 07:49 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Vasco DA Gama hosts Santa Fe in a CONMEBOL Sudamericana clash where both sides have shown disciplined defensive performances recently. Vasco DA Gama ranks second in their competition group, boasting a solid defensive record with only 0.6 goals conceded per match, while Santa Fe concedes even less at 0.2 goals per game. Both teams have accumulated nine points in recent form, reflecting competitive but cautious play styles. The fixture is expected to be tactically tight, with both teams prioritizing defensive solidity over aggressive attacking, setting the stage for a low-scoring encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Vasco DA Gama concedes just 0.6 goals per game, Santa Fe only 0.2
  • Both teams have low over 2.5 goals rates: 40% for Vasco, 20% for Santa Fe
  • Recent form shows both sides averaging around 1.3 goals scored per match combined
  • Head-to-head history includes only one meeting with zero goals scored
  • Vasco DA Gama averages 15.2 shots per game but converts few into goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% chance, supported by both teams' strong defensive records and low scoring averages. Vasco DA Gama and Santa Fe have combined for very few goals recently, with Santa Fe conceding only 0.2 goals per match. The low over 2.5 goals rates and a goalless head-to-head further reinforce the probability of a tight, low-scoring game. This pick offers positive value at 1.67 , reflecting a solid defensive tactical setup and cautious approach from both sides.

Defensive SolidityVasco DA Gama concedes 0.6, Santa Fe 0.2 goals per game
Strong positive
Recent Scoring RatesBoth teams average around 1.3 goals scored per match combined
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals RateVasco 40%, Santa Fe 20% indicating low scoring tendency
Positive
Head-to-HeadOnly one meeting with 0 goals scored
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a tactically cautious match with both Vasco DA Gama and Santa Fe emphasizing defensive organization. The low goals conceded and recent low-scoring matches suggest Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible choice. The data supports a tight contest where scoring opportunities will be limited, making a low total goals outcome likely.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive discipline and low scoring likelihood

“This fixture features two defensively disciplined teams with a history of low-scoring encounters, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical prediction given their recent form and tactical setups.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Vasco DA Gama concedes just 0.6 goals per game, Santa Fe only 0.2

Recent form shows both sides averaging around 1.3 goals scored per match combined

Head-to-head history includes only one meeting with zero goals scored

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last single head-to-head meeting, no goals were scored, reinforcing a trend toward low-scoring fixtures.
  • Both teams have low over 2.5 goals rates recently, with Vasco DA Gama at 40% and Santa Fe at 20%, suggesting a slow tempo and limited goal-scoring chances in this matchup.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Vasco DA Gama5.6
Avg corners for
Santa Fe2.8
Vasco DA Gama9.4
Avg total corners
Santa Fe7.4
Vasco DA Gama2.8
Avg yellow cards
Santa Fe1.2
Vasco DA Gama15.2
Avg shots
Santa Fe12.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 56% · edge +1.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Vasco DA Gama averages 5.6 corners and 15.2 shots per game, while Santa Fe averages fewer at 2.8 corners and 12.6 shots. Vasco's higher attacking volume contrasts with Santa Fe's defensive resilience, likely resulting in limited clear-cut chances and moderate disciplinary action, as reflected in card averages.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Vasco DA Gama1.4
Avg goals scored
Santa Fe1.2
Vasco DA Gama0.6
Avg goals conceded
Santa Fe0.2
Vasco DA Gama40%
BTTS rate
Santa Fe20%
Vasco DA Gama40%
Over 2.5 goals
Santa Fe20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 60% · edge +6.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 64%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Both teams show low BTTS rates, with Vasco DA Gama at 40% and Santa Fe at 20%, indicating a tendency for matches where both sides do not score. Combined with their low goals conceded, this suggests a controlled, low-scoring game with limited goal exchanges.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionSanta Fe Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
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Santa Fe to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Vasco DA Gama to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.67, reflecting a positive of 6.1%. This price aligns well with the model's 66% probability, indicating a fair and attractive betting opportunity without requiring caution for overpricing or drift.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Vasco DA Gama

DWDWD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
08 Sep 2026A Santa Fe0-0
20 Aug 2026A Olimpia4-1
13 Aug 2026H Olimpia0-0
29 Jul 2026H Independiente Medellin1-0
22 Jul 2026A Independiente Medellin2-2

Santa Fe

DDDWW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 0L
08 Sep 2026H Vasco DA Gama0-0
27 Aug 2026A River Plate1-1
20 Aug 2026H River Plate0-0
31 Jul 2026A Caracas FC3-0
24 Jul 2026H Caracas FC2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Santa Fe Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 39%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Santa Fe to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Vasco DA Gama to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Recent form data shows both teams earning 9 points in their last matches, with Vasco DA Gama scoring 1.4 goals and conceding 0.6, and Santa Fe scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.2. These figures highlight disciplined defenses and moderate attacking output, supporting a low total goals scenario.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Vasco DA Gama wins
1Draws
0Santa Fe wins
08 Sep 2026Santa Fe v Vasco DA Gama0-0
Best odds for this sectionSanta Fe to WinBet365 guide price · Model 29% vs implied 14% · edge +15 pts
7
Check odds @ 7
Load more odds for this section
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Vasco DA Gama to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The only previous meeting between Vasco DA Gama and Santa Fe ended 0-0, indicating a historically tight and low-scoring contest. This limited sample supports expectations of a cautious game with strong defensive performances from both sides.
Season team stats

CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Vasco DA Gama11
Played
Santa Fe5
Vasco DA Gama1.5
Avg goals for
Santa Fe1.4
Vasco DA Gama0.8
Avg goals against
Santa Fe0.2
Vasco DA Gama6
Clean sheets
Santa Fe4
Best odds for this sectionSanta Fe Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Load more odds for this section
Santa Fe to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Vasco DA Gama to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Season-long stats reveal Vasco DA Gama's strong defensive record with only 0.6 goals conceded per match and a moderate scoring rate of 1.4 goals. Santa Fe's defensive numbers are even more impressive, conceding just 0.2 goals per game, while scoring 1.2. These profiles underpin the likelihood of a low-scoring encounter.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Vasco DA Gama1063124
Vasco DA Gama sits second in their group with 10 points, reflecting consistent performance and defensive stability. Santa Fe's standing is not available, but their defensive stats suggest a team focused on maintaining structure, indicating a match where defensive priorities may outweigh offensive risks.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Vasco DA Gama Over 2.5
20%Santa Fe Over 2.5
0H2H avg goals
Over the last single head-to-head meeting, no goals were scored, reinforcing a trend toward low-scoring fixtures. Both teams have low over 2.5 goals rates recently, with Vasco DA Gama at 40% and Santa Fe at 20%, suggesting a slow tempo and limited goal-scoring chances in this matchup.

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Fixture links

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