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Uruguay crestUruguay
v
Cape Verde Islands crestCape Verde Islands

World Cup | Sun 21 Jun, 23:00

Uruguay v Cape Verde Islands Stats

Data last updated: Mon 22 Jun 2026, 13:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This World Cup Group H clash in Miami features Uruguay and Cape Verde Islands, both sitting on a point after their opening matches. Uruguay, known for their possession control and structured play, have struggled to convert control into decisive victories, drawing 11 of their last 20 games. Cape Verde arrives unbeaten in seven matches, buoyed by a disciplined defensive display that held Spain to a goalless draw. Both teams exhibit strong defensive compactness, conceding just 0.57 goals per game recently, setting the stage for a tactical, low-scoring encounter where precision and patience will be paramount.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Uruguay's last five matches have all finished under 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams concede an identical average of 0.57 goals per game in recent matches.
  • Cape Verde kept a clean sheet against Spain despite heavy pressure.
  • Uruguay have drawn 11 of their last 20 matches, indicating tight contests.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals due to Uruguay's consistent trend of low-scoring matches, with their last five games all finishing under this threshold. Both teams maintain exceptionally tight defensive records, conceding just 0.57 goals per game, which supports a cautious, low-margin game. Cape Verde's recent clean sheet against Spain further underscores their defensive resilience. While the price is not a strong , the tactical context and defensive solidity make this a sensible selection for a controlled, low-scoring World Cup fixture.

Recent Match TrendsLast 5 Uruguay matches under 2.5 goals
Strong positive
Defensive RecordsBoth teams concede 0.57 goals per game
Strong positive
Clean Sheet CapabilityCape Verde kept Spain to 0-0
Positive
Draw FrequencyUruguay drew 11 of last 20 matches
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Uruguay's possession control and structured approach suggest control over the match tempo, but Cape Verde's disciplined defense and unbeaten streak make breaking through difficult. The defensive strengths and recent low-scoring patterns point towards a cautious game with limited goals, making Under 2.5 Goals a fitting prediction for this tightly contested World Cup fixture.

Main risk

An early goal could disrupt defensive shapes, forcing Cape Verde to open up and increasing the chance of more goals.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive discipline and tactical battle

“This match is poised to be a tactical battle where defensive discipline will overshadow attacking flair, making a low-scoring outcome the most probable scenario.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Uruguay's last five matches have all finished under 2.5 goals.

Both teams concede an identical average of 0.57 goals per game in recent matches.

Cape Verde kept a clean sheet against Spain despite heavy pressure.

Uruguay have drawn 11 of their last 20 matches, indicating tight contests.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last five matches, Uruguay have consistently produced under 2.5 goals, while Cape Verde's recent defensive performances, including a clean sheet against Spain, suggest a trend towards low-scoring games.
  • The average goals in their head-to-head context is unavailable, but these trends indicate a slow tempo and limited goal-scoring chances.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Uruguay14
Avg corners for
Cape Verde Islands1
Uruguay18
Avg total corners
Cape Verde Islands12
Uruguay0
Avg yellow cards
Cape Verde Islands1
Uruguay27
Avg shots
Cape Verde Islands6
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 50% · edge +19 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Uruguay averages 14 corners per game compared to Cape Verde's 1, indicating territorial control and sustained pressure. However, Cape Verde's disciplined defense limits shot quality and quantity, reflected in their low shots on target. Card risk is moderate, with Cape Verde's S. Lopes Cabral showing a higher foul rate, suggesting potential for tactical fouling to disrupt Uruguay's rhythm.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Uruguay1
Avg goals scored
Cape Verde Islands0
Uruguay1
Avg goals conceded
Cape Verde Islands0
Uruguay100%
BTTS rate
Cape Verde Islands0%
Uruguay0%
Over 2.5 goals
Cape Verde Islands0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 60% · edge +6.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Both teams have shown strong defensive organization, conceding only 0.57 goals per game recently. Cape Verde's clean sheet against Spain despite heavy pressure highlights their resilience. Uruguay's high draw rate and low scoring frequency further support a low-scoring match with BTTS unlikely, favoring Under 3.5 Goals and BTTS No scenarios.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionCape Verde Islands to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 39% vs implied 12% · edge +26.7 pts
8.5
Check odds @ 8.5
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Uruguay Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Cape Verde Islands Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced at 4/7, reflecting a modest with a of 66%. This price aligns well with the defensive profiles and recent low-scoring trends of both teams, indicating a cautious, watchful market rather than a strong value opportunity. movement towards higher returns would strengthen the value case.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Uruguay

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
15 Jun 2026A Saudi Arabia1-1

Cape Verde Islands

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
15 Jun 2026A Spain0-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 38% · edge +29.5 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Load more odds for this section
Cape Verde Islands to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
8.5
Check odds @ 8.5
Uruguay Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
Cape Verde Islands Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Uruguay to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Recent form data shows Uruguay's last five matches have all ended under 2.5 goals, consistent with their pattern of drawing many games with low scores. Cape Verde's unbeaten seven-match streak, including a notable clean sheet against Spain, reflects strong defensive form and resilience, reinforcing expectations of a tight, low-scoring match.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Uruguay wins
0Draws
0Cape Verde Islands wins
Best odds for this sectionCape Verde Islands to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 39% vs implied 12% · edge +26.7 pts
8.5
Check odds @ 8.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Uruguay to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
No previous meetings exist between Uruguay and Cape Verde Islands, so historical head-to-head data offers no direct insight. Tactical and recent form indicators carry greater weight in assessing this fixture's likely low-scoring nature.
Season team stats

World Cup

Uruguay2
Played
Cape Verde Islands2
Uruguay1.5
Avg goals for
Cape Verde Islands1
Uruguay1.5
Avg goals against
Cape Verde Islands1
Uruguay0
Clean sheets
Cape Verde Islands1
Best odds for this sectionCape Verde Islands to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 39% vs implied 12% · edge +26.7 pts
8.5
Check odds @ 8.5
Load more odds for this section
Uruguay Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Cape Verde Islands Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Uruguay to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Season-long statistics reveal both teams concede an average of 0.57 goals per game, underscoring their defensive solidity. Uruguay's possession and passing control contrasts with Cape Verde's more direct approach, but both generate similar dangerous attacks per game, suggesting a balanced tactical duel with limited scoring opportunities.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Uruguay220200
3Cape Verde Islands220200
4Cape Verde Islands220200
Both Uruguay and Cape Verde sit on one point in Group H, highlighting the tight competition and high stakes. This parity increases the likelihood of cautious tactics, as neither side can afford defensive lapses, supporting a low-scoring outcome in this pivotal group-stage match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Uruguay Over 2.5
0%Cape Verde Islands Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Uruguay have consistently produced under 2.5 goals, while Cape Verde's recent defensive performances, including a clean sheet against Spain, suggest a trend towards low-scoring games. The average goals in their head-to-head context is unavailable, but these trends indicate a slow tempo and limited goal-scoring chances.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Uruguay v Cape Verde Islands prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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