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Arzignano Valchiampo crestArzignano Valchiampo
v
Renate crestRenate

Serie C - Girone A | Sun 20 Sep, 16:30

Arzignano Valchiampo v Renate Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 08:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Arzignano Valchiampo hosts Renate in a Serie C - Girone A clash where home side form and league position suggest a strong advantage. Arzignano Valchiampo sits comfortably in 8th place with 7 points, showing more consistent results than Renate, who languishes near the relegation zone with just 2 points. The home team’s recent performances have been marked by a balanced attack and a defense conceding slightly over one goal per game, while Renate struggles defensively, allowing 1.6 goals on average. This match offers Arzignano Valchiampo a chance to consolidate their mid-table status against a side with limited offensive threat.

BT4Y best bet

Arzignano Valchiampo to Win

  • Arzignano Valchiampo holds a 67.5% to win, well above the implied market chance of 40%.
  • Home team ranks 8th with 7 points; Renate is 19th with only 2 points.
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating potential for open play.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 1.9 over 10 matches, suggesting moderately low scoring encounters.
  • Renate concedes 1.6 goals per match, higher than Arzignano Valchiampo’s 1.2, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Arzignano Valchiampo due to their superior recent form, stronger league standing, and more resilient defense compared to Renate. The home side’s 67.5% win probability reflects consistent performances and a tactical edge in controlling matches. While both teams have similar over 2.5 goals rates, Arzignano Valchiampo’s better defensive record and home advantage underpin the in this pick. No data limitations affect the analysis, and the current offer positive value given the model’s higher win chance.

Model Win Probability67.5%
Strong positive
League Position and Points8th with 7 points vs 19th with 2 points
Strong positive
Defensive RecordConcedes 1.2 goals per game vs 1.6 for Renate
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals RateBoth teams at 60%
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Arzignano Valchiampo’s stronger league standing and more stable defensive performances make them the logical choice to secure victory. Renate’s struggles in attack and defense reduce their chances, while the home team’s recent form suggests they can control the match tempo and capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Arzignano Valchiampo’s home advantage combined with Renate’s defensive frailties creates a clear tactical edge for the home side to claim all three points.”

Key Data Signals

Arzignano Valchiampo to Win evidence

Arzignano Valchiampo holds a 67.5% to win, well above the implied market chance of 40%.

Home team ranks 8th with 7 points; Renate is 19th with only 2 points.

Both teams have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating potential for open play.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 1.9 over 10 matches, suggesting moderately low scoring encounters.

What To Watch In The Data

Arzignano Valchiampo to Win notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals tally is 1.9, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters.
  • Despite both teams’ recent over 2.5 goals rates at 60%, the historical trend suggests matches tend to be competitive with moderate goal counts rather than open goal-fests.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Arzignano Valchiampo1
Avg goals scored
Renate0.8
Arzignano Valchiampo1.2
Avg goals conceded
Renate1.6
Arzignano Valchiampo60%
BTTS rate
Renate60%
Arzignano Valchiampo60%
Over 2.5 goals
Renate60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 55% · edge +12.1 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 37%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting openness in attack and potential defensive lapses. However, the head-to-head average of 1.9 goals per game points to historically tighter contests, indicating that while goals are possible, the match may not be high scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickArzignano Valchiampo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Arzignano Valchiampo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The current for Arzignano Valchiampo to win at approximately 2.5 reflect a market underestimating their chances, as the model assigns a 67.5% probability. This discrepancy indicates positive value in backing the home side, with room for improvement if form and team news remain favorable.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Arzignano Valchiampo

WLLWD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 2L
17 Sep 2026A Albinoleffe2-1
13 Sep 2026H Desenzano Calvina1-2
06 Sep 2026A Ospitaletto1-3
30 Aug 2026H PRO Vercelli1-0
22 Aug 2026A Lecco0-0

Renate

DDLLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 3L
17 Sep 2026H Dolomiti Bellunesi0-0
13 Sep 2026A Lumezzane2-2
07 Sep 2026H Novara1-2
31 Aug 2026H Cittadella0-1
21 Aug 2026A Alcione1-3
Market aligned with main pickArzignano Valchiampo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Arzignano Valchiampo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Arzignano Valchiampo’s accumulation of 7 points reflects steadier recent performances compared to Renate’s 2 points. The home team’s ability to both score and defend more effectively underpins their favored status, while Renate’s struggles to secure points highlight ongoing challenges in form and consistency.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Arzignano Valchiampo wins
5Draws
3Renate wins
03 Apr 2026Arzignano Valchiampo v Renate0-0
29 Nov 2025Renate v Arzignano Valchiampo1-2
04 May 2025Renate v Arzignano Valchiampo0-0
28 Mar 2025Arzignano Valchiampo v Renate1-2
16 Nov 2024Renate v Arzignano Valchiampo0-0
24 Mar 2024Renate v Arzignano Valchiampo0-3
Market aligned with main pickArzignano Valchiampo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The 10 previous meetings between these teams average 1.9 goals per game, reflecting generally tight contests. This historical context suggests that while Arzignano Valchiampo is favored, the match may be decided by narrow margins rather than high-scoring control.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie C - Girone A

Arzignano Valchiampo5
Played
Renate5
Arzignano Valchiampo1
Avg goals for
Renate0.8
Arzignano Valchiampo1.2
Avg goals against
Renate1.6
Arzignano Valchiampo2
Clean sheets
Renate1
Market aligned with main pickArzignano Valchiampo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Arzignano Valchiampo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Season-long statistics show Arzignano Valchiampo maintaining a balanced attack with 1 goal per game and a defense conceding 1.2 goals, contrasting with Renate’s weaker defense allowing 1.6 goals per match. This profile supports the home side’s likelihood to control the match and limit Renate’s scoring opportunities.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
8Arzignano Valchiampo75212-1
19Renate25023-4
Arzignano Valchiampo’s mid-table position with 7 points offers a platform of stability and , whereas Renate’s 19th place and 2 points reflect relegation-zone pressure. This disparity suggests differing motivations and psychological states, favoring the home team’s composure and tactical execution.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Arzignano Valchiampo Over 2.5
60%Renate Over 2.5
1.9H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals tally is 1.9, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters. Despite both teams’ recent over 2.5 goals rates at 60%, the historical trend suggests matches tend to be competitive with moderate goal counts rather than open goal-fests.

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