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Toulouse crestToulouse
v
Lille crestLille

Ligue 1 | Thu 03 Sep, 19:45

Toulouse v Lille Stats

Data last updated: Wed 23 Sep 2026, 03:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Toulouse face Lille in Ligue 1 on Thu 03 Sep, 19:45. Olivier Giroud has three goal contributions in two league games: one goal and two assists. Lille's unbeaten start and recent wins over Toulouse suggest a likely victory.

BT4Y best bet

Lille to win and Both Teams to Score

  • At 7/2, Lille to win and Both Teams to Score implies roughly 22%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 30%.
  • Toulouse's ability to score is supported by their recent two-goal draw, but defensive frailties remain a concern.
  • Lille need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Toulouse on 1 and Lille on 4.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 50% for Toulouse and 50% for Lille.
  • Lille to win and Both Teams to Score needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1 for Toulouse and 2 for Lille are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 30% for Lille to win and Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 22% implied by the current price. Lille need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Toulouse on 1 and Lille on 4. Toulouse's ability to score is supported by their recent two-goal draw, but defensive frailties remain a concern.

Model chance vs price30% model chance against roughly 22% implied
Positive
Lille need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
Toulouse's ability to score is supported by their recent.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Lille Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because toulouse's ability to score is supported by their recent two-goal draw, but defensive frailties remain a concern. Lille need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Toulouse on 1 and Lille on 4. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Lille to win and Both Teams to Score evidence

Toulouse's ability to score is supported by their recent two-goal draw, but defensive frailties remain a concern.

Lille need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Toulouse on 1 and Lille on 4.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 50% for Toulouse and 50% for Lille.

Lille Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1 for Toulouse and 2 for Lille are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Lille to win and Both Teams to Score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Toulouse1
Avg goals scored
Lille2
Toulouse2
Avg goals conceded
Lille1
Toulouse50%
BTTS rate
Lille50%
Toulouse50%
Over 2.5 goals
Lille50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 57% · edge +9.6 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Toulouse

DL
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
29 Aug 2026A Stade Brestois 292-2
22 Aug 2026H Lyon0-2

Lille

DW
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
28 Aug 2026H Paris Saint Germain2-2
23 Aug 2026A Angers2-0
Market aligned with main pickLille Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 55% · edge +4 pts
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
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Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Lille to WinBetfred guide price · model 50%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Lille1053114
13Toulouse55122-2
Toulouse sit in position 13, while Lille sit in position 4, so table pressure belongs in the Lille to win and Both Teams to Score assessment.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLille Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 55% · edge +4 pts
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2
Check odds @ 2
Lille to WinBetfred guide price · model 50%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Lille Draw No Bet is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Toulouse4
Avg corners for
Lille1.5
Toulouse10
Avg total corners
Lille8
Toulouse2
Avg yellow cards
Lille2
Toulouse11.5
Avg shots
Lille10
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 52% · edge +10.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Toulouse wins
1Draws
7Lille wins
12 Apr 2026Toulouse v Lille0-4
14 Sep 2025Lille v Toulouse2-1
12 Apr 2025Toulouse v Lille1-2
05 Oct 2024Lille v Toulouse2-1
25 Feb 2024Toulouse v Lille3-1
12 Nov 2023Lille v Toulouse1-1
Market aligned with main pickLille to WinBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 49% · edge +1.4 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2
Check odds @ 2
The head-to-head sample gives context for Lille to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Ligue 1

Toulouse5
Played
Lille5
Toulouse1.4
Avg goals for
Lille1.6
Toulouse1.8
Avg goals against
Lille0.8
Toulouse0
Clean sheets
Lille3
Market aligned with main pickLille Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 55% · edge +4 pts
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Load more odds for this section
Lille to WinBetfred guide price · model 50%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Season data supports Lille Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Toulouse Over 2.5
50%Lille Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Toulouse sit at 50% and Lille sit at 50% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.