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Start crestStart
v
Rosenborg crestRosenborg

Eliteserien | Sat 18 Jul, 15:00

Start v Rosenborg Stats

Data last updated: Fri 17 Jul 2026, 05:16 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Eliteserien clash features Start hosting Rosenborg in a fixture marked by defensive vulnerabilities and attacking promise. Start have conceded over two goals per game this season and have struggled to keep clean sheets, while Rosenborg, despite poor away form, have shown attacking resurgence under new management, scoring five goals in their last two matches. Both teams carry scoring streaks into this game, with Start scoring in seven consecutive matches and Rosenborg in sixteen. The match promises open play and goal-scoring opportunities, with both sides needing points to ease league pressure.

BT4Y match pick

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Start concede an average of 2.31 goals per game, highlighting defensive fragility.
  • Rosenborg have scored five goals in their last two matches under new management.
  • Both teams have ongoing scoring streaks: Start in seven and Rosenborg in sixteen consecutive games.
  • Recent matches show high goal totals, supporting an Over 2.5 Goals outcome.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model sees a 55.9% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting both teams' attacking strengths and defensive weaknesses. Start's porous defense and Rosenborg's recent offensive form under new management create conditions for multiple goals. Although the price is slightly short, the football context supports a high-scoring game. The absence of key defenders and ongoing scoring runs reinforce the likelihood of at least three goals. The model advises cautious staking due to the slight price sensitivity.

Start Defensive RecordConcede 2.31 goals per game
Strong positive
Rosenborg Recent Attack5 goals in last 2 matches
Strong positive
Scoring StreaksStart 7 games, Rosenborg 16 games
Strong positive
Price SensitivitySlightly short odds at 1.67
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both Start and Rosenborg have shown strong scoring ability but remain defensively vulnerable. Rosenborg's recent offensive form and Start's ongoing scoring streak suggest a match likely to exceed two goals, making Over 2.5 Goals a sensible choice based on tactical and recent form evidence.

Main risk

The main risk is that either team adopts a highly defensive approach due to league pressure, which could limit goal-scoring opportunities and reduce the total goals scored.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking dynamics and defensive vulnerabilities

“The combination of Start's defensive struggles and Rosenborg's attacking resurgence under new management creates a fertile environment for goals. This match is poised for an entertaining, high-scoring contest with both sides eager to assert themselves offensively.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Start concede an average of 2.31 goals per game, highlighting defensive fragility.

Rosenborg have scored five goals in their last two matches under new management.

Both teams have ongoing scoring streaks: Start in seven and Rosenborg in sixteen consecutive games.

Recent matches show high goal totals, supporting an Over 2.5 Goals outcome.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.57, relatively low compared to recent form.
  • However, both teams' current matches show a higher goal tempo, with Start and Rosenborg frequently involved in games exceeding 2.5 goals.
  • This suggests the trend for this fixture leans towards an open, attacking game with multiple goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Start1.6
Avg goals scored
Rosenborg1.8
Start2.8
Avg goals conceded
Rosenborg1.4
Start80%
BTTS rate
Rosenborg40%
Start80%
Over 2.5 goals
Rosenborg60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 56% vs implied 58% · edge -1.9 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 38%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams have consistent scoring runs, with Start scoring in seven consecutive matches and Rosenborg in sixteen. Both sides also concede regularly, with Start allowing 2.8 goals per game recently and Rosenborg conceding at least twice in six of their last seven matches. This balance of offensive potency and defensive lapses supports a Both Teams To Score scenario.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 56% vs implied 58% · edge -1.9 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Rosenborg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Rosenborg to WinBetMGM guide price · model 66%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Start Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Start to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.67, implying a 59.9% chance, slightly above the model's 55.9% estimate. This suggests the price is somewhat short, warranting cautious stakes. The football context of defensive frailty and attacking form supports the market, but the price reflects market that slightly exceeds the model's probability.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Start3
Avg corners for
Rosenborg6.33
Start8.33
Avg total corners
Rosenborg10.67
Start0.67
Avg yellow cards
Rosenborg1.33
Start13.67
Avg shots
Rosenborg12.67
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Start average 2.75 corners and 12.5 shots per game, while Rosenborg average 4.4 corners and 13.8 shots, indicating active attacking play from both sides. Yellow card averages are moderate, with Start at 1.25 and Rosenborg at 1.2 per game, suggesting a competitive but not overly aggressive match. The shot volume and set-piece frequency point to sustained pressure and opportunities for goals.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Start

LLWLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 7L
12 Jul 2026A Brann1-2
29 May 2026A Fredrikstad1-2
25 May 2026H Valerenga2-0
20 May 2026H Bodo/Glimt1-4
16 May 2026A Viking3-6

Rosenborg

WDLLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
12 Jul 2026H Kristiansund BK3-0
29 May 2026H Bodo/Glimt2-2
25 May 2026A KFUM Oslo0-2
16 May 2026H Aalesund2-3
10 May 2026H Lillestrom2-0
Best odds for this sectionRosenborg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 54% · edge +20 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
Rosenborg to WinBetMGM guide price · model 66%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Start Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 49%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Start to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Recent form data shows Start scoring 1.6 goals per game but conceding 2.8, while Rosenborg score 1.8 and concede 1.4. Start have an 80% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches, with Rosenborg at 60%. This trend confirms a pattern of high-scoring games involving both teams, reinforcing the likelihood of Over 2.5 Goals in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Start wins
1Draws
6Rosenborg wins
24 Feb 2026Rosenborg v Start2-1
01 Nov 2020Rosenborg v Start1-0
16 Jul 2020Start v Rosenborg0-0
11 Nov 2018Start v Rosenborg0-1
22 Apr 2018Rosenborg v Start2-0
18 Sep 2016Rosenborg v Start2-0
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 56% vs implied 58% · edge -1.9 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Rosenborg to WinBetMGM guide price · model 66%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Start to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Historical meetings show Rosenborg unbeaten in the last eight matches against Start, with six wins and two draws. However, recent form and tactical shifts under new management for Rosenborg, combined with Start's home resilience, suggest that while history favors Rosenborg, the match is likely to be competitive and goal-rich rather than one-sided.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

Eliteserien

Start13
Played
Rosenborg0
Start1.1
Avg goals for
Rosenborg-
Start2.3
Avg goals against
Rosenborg-
Start1
Clean sheets
Rosenborg-
Best odds for this sectionRosenborg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 54% · edge +20 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
Rosenborg to WinBetMGM guide price · model 66%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Start Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Start to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over the season, Start have conceded 30 goals in 13 matches, averaging over 2 goals against per game, while Rosenborg have scored 20 goals and conceded 20 in 10 matches, indicating a balance of attacking strength and defensive vulnerability. These season-long stats underpin the expectation of multiple goals in this match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
12Rosenborg1212336-6
16Start713148-16
Start sit 16th with 7 points from 10 matches, while Rosenborg are 12th with 12 points. Both teams are under pressure to improve results, which may encourage attacking play to secure points. The league positions add urgency but also risk defensive lapses as teams push forward, supporting a high-goal environment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Start Over 2.5
60%Rosenborg Over 2.5
1.57H2H avg goals
In the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.57, relatively low compared to recent form. However, both teams' current matches show a higher goal tempo, with Start and Rosenborg frequently involved in games exceeding 2.5 goals. This suggests the trend for this fixture leans towards an open, attacking game with multiple goals.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Start v Rosenborg prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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