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Lillestrom crestLillestrom
v
KFUM Oslo crestKFUM Oslo

Eliteserien | Sat 18 Jul, 15:00

Lillestrom v KFUM Oslo Stats

Data last updated: Sat 18 Jul 2026, 20:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lillestrom hosts KFUM Oslo in an Eliteserien clash where both teams have shown contrasting attacking and defensive profiles. Lillestrom ranks 4th with 22 points, displaying a moderately attacking style but conceding 1.4 goals per game. KFUM Oslo, sitting 13th with 12 points, struggles offensively, averaging just 0.6 goals per match. Both sides have moderate corner averages, suggesting a contest with frequent wide play and set-piece opportunities. The tactical battle may see Lillestrom pressing higher and KFUM Oslo relying on counter-attacks, setting the stage for a match with sustained pressure and multiple corner situations.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Over 8.5 Corners

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 74%, above the 68% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Lillestrom averages 6 corners per game, KFUM Oslo 5.5, combining for over 11 on average.
  • Recent form shows Lillestrom and KFUM Oslo have consistent corner counts, supporting a high corner total.
  • Both teams generate shots from wide areas, increasing corner likelihood through blocked or deflected attempts.
  • Physical play and fouls, especially from KFUM Oslo, often lead to set-piece opportunities including corners.
Price warning

Over 8.5 Corners is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 74% while the model sits nearer 68% (-5.6 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model identifies a 73% chance for over 8.5 corners based on both teams' average corners per game and their attacking styles. Lillestrom’s higher shot volume and KFUM Oslo’s defensive fouling contribute to frequent corner situations. The combined average corners exceed the threshold comfortably, and the match tempo with wide attacks supports sustained corner opportunities. No price warning applies, making this a solid standard stake selection. The data quality is strong, with full team stats available, reinforcing in the corner count projection.

Price / value68% model chance vs 74% implied (-5.6 pts)
Negative
Combined average corners11.5 per game
Strong positive
Attacking wide playHigh shot volume from wings
Positive
Fouling frequencyKFUM Oslo concedes many fouls leading to set pieces
Positive
Data qualityComplete team data available
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match with frequent wide attacks and set-piece battles, as Lillestrom’s offensive pressure meets KFUM Oslo’s defensive resilience. The corner count is likely to be high given the teams’ tendency to generate shots from wide areas and the physical nature of the contest. This match should provide ample corner opportunities, making Over 8.5 Corners a logical choice.

Main risk

The main risk is a potential tactical shift to a more direct or defensive style that reduces wide play and corner opportunities, which could lower the corner count below 9.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market

“Lillestrom’s aggressive wing play combined with KFUM Oslo’s fouling tendencies sets up a scenario rich in corner opportunities. This match’s dynamics favor a high corner count as both teams look to exploit wide areas and defensive lapses.”

Key Data Signals

Over 8.5 Corners evidence

Lillestrom averages 6 corners per game, KFUM Oslo 5.5, combining for over 11 on average.

Recent form shows Lillestrom and KFUM Oslo have consistent corner counts, supporting a high corner total.

Both teams generate shots from wide areas, increasing corner likelihood through blocked or deflected attempts.

Physical play and fouls, especially from KFUM Oslo, often lead to set-piece opportunities including corners.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 8.5 Corners notes

  • Over the last nine head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3.67, indicating open games with attacking intent.
  • While this fixture’s goal output is moderate, the tempo and attacking transitions seen in recent matches suggest a steady flow of wide attacks and set-piece chances, supporting a trend toward multiple corners in the match.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Lillestrom6
Avg corners for
KFUM Oslo4.4
Lillestrom9.8
Avg total corners
KFUM Oslo9
Lillestrom1.6
Avg yellow cards
KFUM Oslo2
Lillestrom13.2
Avg shots
KFUM Oslo8.2
Market aligned with main pickOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 74% · edge -5.6 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
The corner market is bolstered by Lillestrom’s average of 6 corners and KFUM Oslo’s 5.5 per game. Both teams generate a high volume of shots (13.2 and 8.75 respectively), many from wide areas, increasing the likelihood of blocked or deflected attempts resulting in corners. The moderate card counts reflect a physical game that often leads to set-piece situations including corners.

Continue the research

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lillestrom1.2
Avg goals scored
KFUM Oslo0.6
Lillestrom1.4
Avg goals conceded
KFUM Oslo1.2
Lillestrom40%
BTTS rate
KFUM Oslo20%
Lillestrom40%
Over 2.5 goals
KFUM Oslo20%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 47% · edge +7.9 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
While goal scoring is moderate, with Lillestrom averaging 1.2 and KFUM Oslo 0.6 goals per game, the focus on corners is driven by attacking patterns rather than goals. Both teams have lower BTTS and Over 2.5 goal rates, indicating a match where chances may be created but finishing is less clinical, leading to more shots from wide positions and thus more corners.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 74% · edge -5.6 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
KFUM Oslo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
KFUM Oslo to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
5
Check odds @ 5
Lillestrom Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Lillestrom to WinBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The Over 8.5 Corners market is well supported by the combined average corners per game of 11.5, which comfortably exceeds the threshold. The model’s 73% indicates a strong likelihood of this outcome, with no price warnings suggesting a fair value bet. The market is not price-sensitive, making it a straightforward selection based on statistical evidence.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lillestrom

WLLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
11 Jul 2026A Fredrikstad2-0
25 May 2026A Ham-Kam0-2
20 May 2026H Kristiansund BK1-2
16 May 2026H Sandefjord3-1
10 May 2026A Rosenborg0-2

KFUM Oslo

LDWLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
12 Jul 2026H Bodo/Glimt0-2
29 May 2026H Tromso0-0
25 May 2026H Rosenborg2-0
16 May 2026A Brann1-2
10 May 2026H Viking0-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 44% · edge +11 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 81%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
KFUM Oslo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
KFUM Oslo to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
5
Check odds @ 5
Lillestrom Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Lillestrom to WinBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Recent form data shows Lillestrom and KFUM Oslo consistently produce corner counts near or above the 8.5 threshold. Lillestrom’s recent matches maintain a steady corner average, while KFUM Oslo’s defensive style and fouling tendencies contribute to sustained corner opportunities. This form supports the model’s in the corner market for this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

7Lillestrom wins
0Draws
2KFUM Oslo wins
07 Feb 2026Lillestrom v KFUM Oslo7-2
25 Jun 2025Lillestrom v KFUM Oslo2-0
28 Feb 2025Lillestrom v KFUM Oslo0-5
30 Aug 2024KFUM Oslo v Lillestrom2-0
27 Jun 2024Lillestrom v KFUM Oslo2-1
09 Mar 2024Lillestrom v KFUM Oslo3-1
Best odds for this sectionKFUM Oslo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 29% vs implied 20% · edge +9.1 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
Load more odds for this section
Lillestrom to WinBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The nine previous encounters between Lillestrom and KFUM Oslo have averaged 3.67 goals per game, indicating open and attacking matches. Although goal scoring is not the primary focus, these meetings show a pattern of active play that often leads to multiple corners. The head-to-head data moderately supports the expectation of a high corner count in this fixture.
Season team stats

Eliteserien

Lillestrom13
Played
KFUM Oslo13
Lillestrom1.6
Avg goals for
KFUM Oslo1
Lillestrom0.9
Avg goals against
KFUM Oslo1.6
Lillestrom5
Clean sheets
KFUM Oslo4
Best odds for this sectionKFUM Oslo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 32% · edge +9.7 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
KFUM Oslo to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
5
Check odds @ 5
Lillestrom Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Lillestrom to WinBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Season-long statistics reveal Lillestrom’s attacking approach yields 6 corners per game, while KFUM Oslo’s defensive setup still concedes 5.5 corners on average. The combined corner average of 11.5 per game is well above the 8.5 line, reflecting sustained wide play and set-piece involvement throughout the season, reinforcing the corner market’s appeal.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Lillestrom25138149
13KFUM Oslo1213337-8
Lillestrom’s 4th place and KFUM Oslo’s 13th position reflect contrasting season trajectories but do not heavily influence corner counts. The standings provide background context but the corner market is more directly shaped by playing style and tactical approach than league pressure in this mid-season fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Lillestrom Over 2.5
20%KFUM Oslo Over 2.5
3.67H2H avg goals
Over the last nine head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3.67, indicating open games with attacking intent. While this fixture’s goal output is moderate, the tempo and attacking transitions seen in recent matches suggest a steady flow of wide attacks and set-piece chances, supporting a trend toward multiple corners in the match.

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