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St. Louis City crestSt. Louis City
v
Toronto FC crestToronto FC

Major League Soccer | Sun 20 Sep, 01:30

St. Louis City v Toronto FC Stats

Data last updated: Sun 20 Sep 2026, 21:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Louis City hosts Toronto FC in a Major League Soccer clash where St. Louis City holds a clear edge in recent form and league standing. Louis City sits fifth with 41 points, showing strong attacking output and a solid home presence, while Toronto FC is twelfth with 29 points and has struggled defensively. The match presents a tactical battle with St. Louis City's dynamic offense likely to challenge Toronto's defense, which has conceded more goals recently. This fixture carries importance for playoff positioning, adding intensity to the encounter without a clear favorite from tactical nuances alone.

BT4Y best bet

St. Louis City to Win

  • Louis City ranks 5th with 41 points; Toronto FC is 12th with 29 points.
  • Louis City averages 2.8 goals per game with 100% Over 2.5 rate recently.
  • Toronto FC concedes 2 goals per game and has an 80% BTTS rate.
  • Louis City has a strong home form and a higher to win at 64.2%.
  • Key attackers like Rafael Navarro and D. Downs provide significant goal threat for St.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors St. Louis City to win with a 64.2% chance, supported by their superior recent form and league position. Louis City's attack is prolific, averaging 2.8 goals per game and maintaining a 100% Over 2.5 goals rate, while their defense concedes fewer goals than Toronto FC. The home side's attacking players, including Rafael Navarro and D. Downs, show high shot volumes and goal threat, reinforcing in their ability to secure victory. No price warning is needed as the fairly reflect the model's edge.

Model chance64.2%
Strong positive
Recent goals scored2.8 per game
Strong positive
Recent goals conceded1.8 per game
Positive
Home league rank5th
Positive
Key player attacking statsHigh shots and goals for Navarro and Downs
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Louis City's consistent scoring and superior league standing make them the likely winners in this matchup. Their offensive firepower, led by players like Rafael Navarro, combined with a more stable defense, provides a tactical and statistical advantage over Toronto FC, who have struggled to contain opponents and score regularly.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Louis City's attacking depth and home form give them a clear edge, especially against a Toronto FC side that has defensive vulnerabilities and less offensive consistency.”

Key Data Signals

St. Louis City to Win evidence

Louis City ranks 5th with 41 points; Toronto FC is 12th with 29 points.

Louis City averages 2.8 goals per game with 100% Over 2.5 rate recently.

Toronto FC concedes 2 goals per game and has an 80% BTTS rate.

Louis City has a strong home form and a higher to win at 64.2%.

What To Watch In The Data

St. Louis City to Win notes

  • Recent trends show St.
  • Louis City has a 100% Over 2.5 goals rate in their last matches, while Toronto FC holds an 80% rate, indicating a high likelihood of multiple goals in this fixture.
  • The average goals in their only head-to-head meeting was low, but current attacking trends suggest a more open and goal-rich encounter this time.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

St. Louis City2.8
Avg goals scored
Toronto FC1.8
St. Louis City1.8
Avg goals conceded
Toronto FC2
St. Louis City100%
BTTS rate
Toronto FC80%
St. Louis City100%
Over 2.5 goals
Toronto FC80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Both teams have shown tendencies for matches with multiple goals, with St. Louis City maintaining a 100% Over 2.5 goals rate and BTTS rate, while Toronto FC also has an 80% rate in both categories. This points to an open game likely featuring goals from both sides, driven by St. Louis City's attacking style and Toronto's defensive concessions.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSt. Louis City to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 60% · edge +4.3 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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St. Louis City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Louis City to win reflect a slight with a 64.2% versus a 62.5% implied probability. This suggests the market prices the home side fairly, with a small positive value margin indicating in their victory without excessive risk.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

St. Louis City3.4
Avg corners for
Toronto FC4.2
St. Louis City9
Avg total corners
Toronto FC8.2
St. Louis City2.4
Avg yellow cards
Toronto FC1.8
St. Louis City10.8
Avg shots
Toronto FC14.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 48% · edge +10.7 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
3
Check odds @ 3
Toronto FC averages more shots (14.6) and corners (4.2) per game than St. Louis City, indicating they can generate offensive pressure despite defensive struggles. Louis City commits more fouls and receives more yellow cards, reflecting a physical approach that could influence game tempo and set-piece opportunities.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

St. Louis City

WDWDW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 4D 0L
13 Sep 2026H Minnesota United FC4-2
10 Sep 2026A Portland Timbers2-2
06 Sep 2026A Vancouver Whitecaps3-1
31 Aug 2026H FC Dallas3-3
23 Aug 2026H Houston Dynamo2-1

Toronto FC

LWDDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 2L
13 Sep 2026A Orlando City SC0-3
10 Sep 2026H Nashville SC2-1
06 Sep 2026H Chicago Fire4-4
30 Aug 2026H New York City FC1-1
23 Aug 2026A Inter Miami2-1
Market aligned with main pickSt. Louis City to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 60% · edge +4.3 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
St. Louis City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Louis City has accumulated 11 points recently, showcasing strong momentum with consistent goal scoring and defensive solidity. Toronto FC's 8 points reflect a less stable form, with defensive vulnerabilities contributing to their lower output. This form disparity favors St. Louis City's chances to control the match and secure a win.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1St. Louis City wins
0Draws
0Toronto FC wins
09 Jul 2023Toronto FC v St. Louis City0-1
Market aligned with main pickSt. Louis City to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 60% · edge +4.3 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
The single previous meeting between these teams featured a low average of 1 goal, suggesting historically tight contests. However, current form and attacking improvements by St. Louis City indicate that this fixture may see a more decisive and higher-scoring outcome, reducing the weight of past head-to-head data.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Major League Soccer

St. Louis City26
Played
Toronto FC26
St. Louis City1.7
Avg goals for
Toronto FC1.5
St. Louis City1.4
Avg goals against
Toronto FC1.9
St. Louis City3
Clean sheets
Toronto FC3
Market aligned with main pickSt. Louis City to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 60% · edge +4.3 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
St. Louis City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over the season, St. Louis City averages 2.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game, indicating a potent attack and relatively sound defense. Toronto FC's 1.8 goals scored and 2 conceded per game highlight offensive limitations and defensive weaknesses, reinforcing St. Louis City's superiority in both phases of play.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3St. Louis City442612869
12Toronto FC29266119-10
Louis City's 5th place standing with 41 points positions them comfortably in the playoff race, providing motivation to maintain form. Toronto FC's 12th place and 29 points suggest a struggle to climb the table, with less pressure but also less . The standings underline the home side's stronger competitive position and incentive to win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%St. Louis City Over 2.5
80%Toronto FC Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
Recent trends show St. Louis City has a 100% Over 2.5 goals rate in their last matches, while Toronto FC holds an 80% rate, indicating a high likelihood of multiple goals in this fixture. The average goals in their only head-to-head meeting was low, but current attacking trends suggest a more open and goal-rich encounter this time.

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