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Inter Miami crestInter Miami
v
San Diego crestSan Diego

Major League Soccer | Mon 21 Sep, 00:00

Inter Miami v San Diego Stats

Data last updated: Sun 20 Sep 2026, 08:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Inter Miami hosts San Diego in a Major League Soccer clash where both teams have shown competitive intensity recently. Inter Miami ranks third with 45 points, while San Diego sits tenth with 30 points, indicating a motivated home side aiming to consolidate their position. Both teams have averaged high-scoring matches with open play styles, and the physicality of their encounters often leads to disciplinary actions. This fixture promises a combative battle with tactical pressing and midfield duels likely to generate several fouls and cards, setting the stage for a high-card count encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 4.5 Cards

  • Inter Miami averages 3 yellow cards per game, San Diego 2.6, indicating frequent fouling.
  • Both teams have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, reflecting open, attacking play.
  • Inter Miami’s aggressive pressing and San Diego’s physical midfield battles increase card likelihood.
  • Top players like F. Caicedo have high foul and card risk, contributing to disciplinary count.
  • Recent form shows both teams earning 6 points in last matches, suggesting competitive intensity.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 4.5 Cards as a strong value bet with a 67.4% chance against a 50% implied market probability, reflecting a 17.4% . Both teams’ aggressive playing styles, combined with high foul rates and key players prone to bookings, support this forecast. Inter Miami’s average of 3 yellows and San Diego’s 2.6 per match, alongside intense midfield battles and tactical fouling, underpin the expectation of a card-heavy game. is high at 87%, making this a compelling selection for bettors.

Model Probability67.4% chance for Over 4.5 Cards
Strong positive
Inter Miami Card Rate3 yellow cards per game
Positive
San Diego Card Rate2.6 yellow cards per game
Positive
Key Player Card RiskF. Caicedo averages 0.7 yellows per 90 minutes
Positive
Recent Form IntensityBoth teams earned 6 points recently, indicating competitive matches
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physically charged match as Inter Miami and San Diego contest vital points in MLS. Inter Miami’s pressing and San Diego’s combative midfield suggest numerous fouls and disciplinary actions. The data confirms both teams regularly accumulate multiple cards per game, making Over 4.5 Cards a tactically and statistically sound prediction for this fixture.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Card market analysis

“This matchup features two sides with aggressive playing styles and key players who frequently draw fouls and bookings, making a high card count very plausible.”

Key Data Signals

Over 4.5 Cards evidence

Inter Miami averages 3 yellow cards per game, San Diego 2.6, indicating frequent fouling.

Both teams have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, reflecting open, attacking play.

Inter Miami’s aggressive pressing and San Diego’s physical midfield battles increase card likelihood.

Top players like F. Caicedo have high foul and card risk, contributing to disciplinary count.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 4.5 Cards notes

  • Over the last ten matches, both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating open games with attacking tempo.
  • This trend suggests frequent transitions and defensive gaps, which typically result in fouls and cards.
  • The sustained offensive pressure and pace support the expectation of a high-card count in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Inter Miami4.8
Avg corners for
San Diego5
Inter Miami8.6
Avg total corners
San Diego9.6
Inter Miami3
Avg yellow cards
San Diego2.6
Inter Miami15
Avg shots
San Diego10.6
Market aligned with main pickOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Inter Miami averages 4.8 corners and 15 shots per game, while San Diego averages 5 corners and 10.6 shots, reflecting sustained attacking pressure from both sides. This offensive activity often leads to defensive fouls and tactical fouling, increasing card counts. The physicality in midfield and defensive duels further supports a high number of bookings.

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Major League Soccer hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Inter Miami2.6
Avg goals scored
San Diego1.6
Inter Miami1.6
Avg goals conceded
San Diego2
Inter Miami100%
BTTS rate
San Diego40%
Inter Miami80%
Over 2.5 goals
San Diego80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.05
Check odds @ 1.05
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 32%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Both teams have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, with Inter Miami scoring 2.6 goals per game and San Diego 1.6. While San Diego’s BTTS rate is lower at 40%, Inter Miami’s perfect 100% BTTS rate indicates open games with defensive vulnerabilities, contributing to a dynamic and physical contest likely to produce fouls and cards.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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San Diego Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
San Diego to WinBet365 guide price · model 31%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Inter Miami Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
The Over 4.5 Cards market is priced attractively with around 2.0, reflecting a 50% implied chance. The model’s 67.4% probability indicates clear value, supported by both teams’ consistent card accumulation and aggressive match tempo. This pricing suggests a strong betting opportunity rather than a mere watch angle.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Inter Miami

DDDWL
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 2L
13 Sep 2026H Nashville SC2-2
10 Sep 2026A Chicago Fire1-1
06 Sep 2026H Atlanta United FC2-2
30 Aug 2026H CF Montreal7-1
23 Aug 2026H Toronto FC1-2

San Diego

LLLWW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
14 Sep 2026H Philadelphia Union0-5
10 Sep 2026H San Jose Earthquakes2-3
06 Sep 2026A Orlando City SC0-1
30 Aug 2026H Los Angeles Galaxy3-1
23 Aug 2026H Colorado Rapids3-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
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San Diego Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
San Diego to WinBet365 guide price · model 31%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Inter Miami Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Inter Miami to WinBetUK guide price · model 53%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Recent form data shows both teams earned 6 points in their last matches, indicating competitive intensity. Inter Miami’s matches have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate and 100% BTTS rate, suggesting open play and frequent fouling. San Diego matches also have an 80% Over 2.5 rate. This form supports a scenario with numerous fouls and cards as both sides push hard for results.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Inter Miami wins
0Draws
0San Diego wins
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
San Diego to WinBet365 guide price · model 31%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Inter Miami to WinBetUK guide price · model 53%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
No previous head-to-head data exists between Inter Miami and San Diego, so historical meetings do not inform this bet. Instead, the focus is on current form, playing styles, and disciplinary trends to assess the likelihood of Over 4.5 Cards.
Season team stats

Major League Soccer

Inter Miami25
Played
San Diego25
Inter Miami2.4
Avg goals for
San Diego1.7
Inter Miami1.8
Avg goals against
San Diego1.7
Inter Miami4
Clean sheets
San Diego7
Best odds for this sectionSan Diego Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 29% · edge +13 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Load more odds for this section
San Diego to WinBet365 guide price · model 31%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Inter Miami Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Inter Miami to WinBetUK guide price · model 53%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Season-long data reveals Inter Miami averages 3 yellow cards per game and San Diego 2.6, confirming a pattern of physical play. Combined with high goal rates and open attacking styles, these statistics reinforce the likelihood of a card-heavy match, aligning well with the Over 4.5 Cards selection.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
10San Diego302586110
3Inter Miami4525129415
Inter Miami’s third-place standing with 45 points contrasts with San Diego’s tenth place and 30 points, indicating a motivated home side defending a top-table position. This competitive disparity may lead San Diego to commit tactical fouls to disrupt play, increasing card chances. The league context adds pressure that often translates into disciplinary actions.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Inter Miami Over 2.5
80%San Diego Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating open games with attacking tempo. This trend suggests frequent transitions and defensive gaps, which typically result in fouls and cards. The sustained offensive pressure and pace support the expectation of a high-card count in this fixture.

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