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Spain crestSpain
v
Iraq crestIraq

Friendlies | Thu 04 Jun, 20:00

Spain v Iraq Stats

Data last updated: Wed 24 Jun 2026, 09:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Spain face Iraq in Friendlies on Thu 04 Jun, 20:00. Spain collected sixteen points from six fixtures while completing an unbeaten group phase. The Netherlands are unbeaten in their last 10 matches, winning seven and drawing three.

BT4Y match pick

Requires Spain to win the match and the total match goals to be three or fewer

  • At 4/5, Spain Win implies roughly 56%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 51%.
  • That blend of attacking quality and defensive organisation has become a defining characteristic of this team.
  • Spain have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Iraq.
  • Spain have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Spain Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 51% for Spain Win sits against roughly 56% implied by the current price. Spain have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Iraq. That blend of attacking quality and defensive organisation has become a defining characteristic of this team.

Model chance vs price51% model chance against roughly 56% implied
Negative
Spain have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points.Visible data support
Positive
Spain have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
That blend of attacking quality and defensive organisation has.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Spain Win is the preferred angle because that blend of attacking quality and defensive organisation has become a defining characteristic of this team. Spain have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Iraq. Although this is officially only a friendly, there is plenty beneath the surface.

Main risk

Although this is officially only a friendly, there is plenty beneath the surface.

Key Data Signals

Spain Win evidence

That blend of attacking quality and defensive organisation has become a defining characteristic of this team.

Spain have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Iraq.

Spain have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Spain Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Spain Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Spain1.5
    Avg goals scored
    Iraq1
    Spain0
    Avg goals conceded
    Iraq0
    Spain0%
    BTTS rate
    Iraq0%
    Spain50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Iraq0%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 28% · edge +38.2 pts
    3.6
    Check odds @ 3.6
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.07
    Check odds @ 1.07
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Friendlies hubfull betting preview for Spain v Iraqcorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSpain to WinBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 96% · edge -45.2 pts
    1.04
    Check odds @ 1.04
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 55%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Spain to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Spain8
    Avg corners for
    Iraq-
    Spain8.5
    Avg total corners
    Iraq-
    Spain0
    Avg yellow cards
    Iraq-
    Spain19.5
    Avg shots
    Iraq-
    Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 48% · edge +7.2 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 49%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Spain

    DW
    Last 51W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 0L
    31 Mar 2026H Egypt0-0
    27 Mar 2026H Serbia3-0

    Iraq

    W
    Last 51W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 0L
    29 May 2026H Andorra1-0
    Market aligned with main pickSpain to WinBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 96% · edge -45.2 pts
    1.04
    Check odds @ 1.04
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 79%
    1.01
    Check odds @ 1.01
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Spain wins
    0Draws
    0Iraq wins
    17 Jun 2009Spain v Iraq1-0
    Market aligned with main pickSpain to WinBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 96% · edge -45.2 pts
    1.04
    Check odds @ 1.04
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Spain to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Friendlies

    Spain4
    Played
    Iraq3
    Spain1.8
    Avg goals for
    Iraq0.7
    Spain0.5
    Avg goals against
    Iraq1
    Spain2
    Clean sheets
    Iraq1
    Market aligned with main pickSpain to WinBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 96% · edge -45.2 pts
    1.04
    Check odds @ 1.04
    Season data supports Spain to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    50%Spain Over 2.5
    0%Iraq Over 2.5
    1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Spain sit at 50% and Iraq sit at 0% with the H2H average at 1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Spain v Iraq prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Competition and hubs

    Friendlies hubFriendlies hubfull betting preview for Spain v Iraqcorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hub

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre