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Iraq crestIraq

Friendlies | Thu 04 Jun, 20:00

Spain v Iraq Stats

Data last updated: Wed 03 Jun 2026, 04:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Spain faces Iraq in a friendly match where both teams have shown a tendency towards low-scoring games recently. Spain's recent matches have averaged 1.5 goals scored and none conceded, while Iraq's games have been similarly tight with an average of one goal scored and no goals conceded. Spain's attack is methodical but not overly aggressive, and Iraq's defense has been disciplined, suggesting a tactical battle with limited goal-scoring opportunities. The match is likely to be cautious, with both sides prioritizing defensive solidity over open attacking play.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Spain has kept clean sheets in recent fixtures, conceding 0 goals on average.
  • Iraq's matches have produced no BTTS outcomes, indicating defensive resilience.
  • Spain averages 19.5 shots per game but only 7 on target, showing controlled attacking intent.
  • Recent form shows Spain's over 2.5 goals rate at 50%, Iraq's at 0%, favoring fewer goals.
  • Head-to-head meeting recorded an average of just 1 goal, supporting a low-scoring outlook.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% chance, reflecting recent defensive strength from both Spain and Iraq. Spain's solid defensive record and Iraq's disciplined approach reduce the likelihood of a high-scoring game. Despite Spain's decent shot volume, finishing quality and Iraq's compact defense suggest limited goal opportunities. The absence of BTTS in Iraq's recent matches further supports a controlled, low-scoring match. This pick is a balanced choice based on tactical caution and statistical trends, with no price warnings affecting .

Recent Defensive FormSpain concedes 0 goals on average, Iraq concedes 0
Strong positive
Goal Scoring RatesSpain 1.5 goals/game, Iraq 1 goal/game
Positive
BTTS RatesSpain 0%, Iraq 0%
Strong positive
Shot VolumeSpain 19.5 shots/game, 7 on target
Neutral
Head-to-Head Goals1 goal average in last meeting
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This Under 2.5 Goals pick aligns well with the tactical setup expected from both teams, where defensive discipline is prioritized. Spain's recent clean sheets and Iraq's conservative approach suggest limited goal-scoring chances. The data supports a cautious game with few goals, making Under 2.5 a sensible selection for this friendly encounter.

Main risk

The main risk is that Spain's attacking players could break through Iraq's defense unexpectedly, pushing the total goals above 2.5.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive strength and low-scoring trend

“The defensive solidity shown by Spain combined with Iraq's low-scoring recent form makes Under 2.5 Goals a logical and well-supported choice for this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Spain has kept clean sheets in recent fixtures, conceding 0 goals on average.

Iraq's matches have produced no BTTS outcomes, indicating defensive resilience.

Spain averages 19.5 shots per game but only 7 on target, showing controlled attacking intent.

Recent form shows Spain's over 2.5 goals rate at 50%, Iraq's at 0%, favoring fewer goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last meeting and recent matches, the trend favors fewer goals, with an average of 1 goal scored in their head-to-head and low over 2.5 goals rates.
  • This suggests a slower tempo and defensive caution, making the Over 2.5 Goals market less likely to be triggered in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Spain1.5
Avg goals scored
Iraq1
Spain0
Avg goals conceded
Iraq0
Spain0%
BTTS rate
Iraq0%
Spain50%
Over 2.5 goals
Iraq0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 29% · edge +37.4 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Both teams have shown a pattern of matches without both teams scoring, with Iraq especially maintaining a 0% BTTS rate recently. Spain's controlled attacking style and Iraq's defensive resilience suggest goals will be limited and likely not shared by both sides.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Friendlies hubfull betting preview for Spain v Iraqcorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionIraq to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 3% · edge +29.6 pts
29
Check odds @ 29
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DrawBetUK guide price · model 28%
15
Check odds @ 15
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Spain to WinBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.04
Check odds @ 1.04
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
The Under 2.5 Goals market reflects a realistic expectation of a low-scoring game given Spain's strong defensive record and Iraq's disciplined approach. The likely mirror the cautious nature of this friendly, with no clear but a solid football rationale supporting the pick.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Spain8
Avg corners for
Iraq-
Spain8.5
Avg total corners
Iraq-
Spain0
Avg yellow cards
Iraq-
Spain19.5
Avg shots
Iraq-
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 58% · edge -3 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Spain averages a healthy number of shots and corners, indicating some attacking pressure, but Iraq's defensive discipline and lack of yellow cards suggest a controlled game with limited fouling and set-piece opportunities. The shot volume may not translate into many clear chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Spain

DW
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
31 Mar 2026H Egypt0-0
27 Mar 2026H Serbia3-0

Iraq

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
29 May 2026H Andorra1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 29% · edge +32 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
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Iraq to WinBetMGM guide price · model 33%
29
Check odds @ 29
DrawBetUK guide price · model 28%
15
Check odds @ 15
Spain to WinBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.04
Check odds @ 1.04
Recent form data shows Spain scoring 1.5 goals per game while conceding none, and Iraq scoring 1 goal per game with no goals conceded. Both teams have low BTTS rates and moderate over 2.5 goals rates, reinforcing the expectation of a low-scoring, tightly contested match.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Spain wins
0Draws
0Iraq wins
17 Jun 2009Spain v Iraq1-0
Best odds for this sectionIraq to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 3% · edge +29.6 pts
29
Check odds @ 29
Load more odds for this section
DrawBetUK guide price · model 28%
15
Check odds @ 15
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Spain to WinBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.04
Check odds @ 1.04
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
The single previous meeting between Spain and Iraq ended with just 1 goal scored, indicating a historically low-scoring encounter. While limited in sample size, this supports the expectation of a cautious game with few goals, aligning with the Under 2.5 Goals selection.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Friendlies

Spain2
Played
Iraq1
Spain1.5
Avg goals for
Iraq1
Spain0
Avg goals against
Iraq0
Spain2
Clean sheets
Iraq1
Best odds for this sectionIraq to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 3% · edge +29.6 pts
29
Check odds @ 29
Load more odds for this section
Spain to WinBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.04
Check odds @ 1.04
Season-long statistics highlight Spain's strong defense, conceding zero goals recently, and a moderate attack that creates chances but does not overwhelm opponents. Iraq's defensive numbers are similarly solid, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals market as both teams prioritize defensive organization over high scoring.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Spain Over 2.5
0%Iraq Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
Over the last meeting and recent matches, the trend favors fewer goals, with an average of 1 goal scored in their head-to-head and low over 2.5 goals rates. This suggests a slower tempo and defensive caution, making the Over 2.5 Goals market less likely to be triggered in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Spain v Iraq prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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