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Borussia Mönchengladbach crestBorussia Mönchengladbach
v
Borussia Dortmund crestBorussia Dortmund

Bundesliga | Sun 03 May, 16:30

Borussia Mönchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund Stats

Data last updated: Thu 23 Jul 2026, 19:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Borussia Mönchengladbach face Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga on Sun 03 May, 16:30. Borussia Dortmund have dominated this fixture recently, winning five of the last six meetings. Dortmund’s defensive stability and superior away form make them strong favourites here. Gladbach average just 1.

BT4Y best bet

Borussia Dortmund to Win Analysing the current trajectory of both clubs reveals a significant gulf in momentum

  • At 5/6, Borussia Dortmund to Win Analysing the current trajectory of both clubs reveals a significant gulf in momentum implies roughly 55%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 70%.
  • Gladbach are on a five-match winless slide and have struggled for goals at home, averaging just 1.27 per game.
  • Borussia Dortmund have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
  • Borussia Dortmund have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Borussia Dortmund to Win Analysing the current trajectory of both clubs reveals a significant gulf in momentum angle more.
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach sit 12 in the table, while Borussia Dortmund sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 70% for Borussia Dortmund to Win Analysing the current trajectory of both clubs reveals a significant gulf in momentum sits against roughly 55% implied by the current price. Borussia Dortmund have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Gladbach are on a five-match winless slide and have struggled for goals at home, averaging just 1.27 per game.

Model chance vs price70% model chance against roughly 55% implied
Strong positive
Borussia Dortmund have the stronger recent points return, taking 9.Visible data support
Positive
Borussia Dortmund have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Gladbach are on a five-match winless slide and have.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Borussia Dortmund Win is the preferred angle because gladbach are on a five-match winless slide and have struggled for goals at home, averaging just 1.27 per game. Borussia Dortmund have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. It’s a meeting of different ambitions, but equally high emotional stakes.

Main risk

It’s a meeting of different ambitions, but equally high emotional stakes.

Key Data Signals

Borussia Dortmund to Win Analysing the current trajectory of both clubs reveals a significant gulf in momentum evidence

Gladbach are on a five-match winless slide and have struggled for goals at home, averaging just 1.

Borussia Dortmund have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Borussia Dortmund have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Borussia Dortmund Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Borussia Mönchengladbach sit 12 in the table, while Borussia Dortmund sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Borussia Dortmund to Win Analysing the current trajectory of both clubs reveals a significant gulf in momentum notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Borussia Mönchengladbach1.2
    Avg goals scored
    Borussia Dortmund2
    Borussia Mönchengladbach1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Borussia Dortmund1
    Borussia Mönchengladbach60%
    BTTS rate
    Borussia Dortmund40%
    Borussia Mönchengladbach40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Borussia Dortmund60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 80%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Borussia Mönchengladbach

    DDLDD
    Last 50W 4D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 4D 4L
    25 Apr 2026A VfL Wolfsburg0-0
    19 Apr 2026H FSV Mainz 051-1
    11 Apr 2026A RB Leipzig0-1
    04 Apr 2026H 1. FC Heidenheim2-2
    21 Mar 2026A 1. FC Köln3-3

    Borussia Dortmund

    WLLWW
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 1D 3L
    26 Apr 2026H SC Freiburg4-0
    18 Apr 2026A 1899 Hoffenheim1-2
    11 Apr 2026H Bayer Leverkusen0-1
    04 Apr 2026A VfB Stuttgart2-0
    21 Mar 2026H Hamburger SV3-2
    Market aligned with main pickBorussia Dortmund to WinBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Borussia Dortmund Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Borussia Dortmund7334227536
    12Borussia Mönchengladbach383491114-11
    Borussia Mönchengladbach sit in position 12, while Borussia Dortmund sit in position 2, so table pressure belongs in the Borussia Dortmund to Win Analysing the current trajectory of both clubs reveals a significant gulf in momentum assessment.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickBorussia Dortmund to WinBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Borussia Dortmund Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Borussia Dortmund to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Borussia Mönchengladbach2.8
    Avg corners for
    Borussia Dortmund5.2
    Borussia Mönchengladbach9.4
    Avg total corners
    Borussia Dortmund8.6
    Borussia Mönchengladbach3
    Avg yellow cards
    Borussia Dortmund2.6
    Borussia Mönchengladbach11.6
    Avg shots
    Borussia Dortmund13.6
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 46%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Borussia Mönchengladbach wins
    1Draws
    7Borussia Dortmund wins
    19 Dec 2025Borussia Dortmund v Borussia Mönchengladbach2-0
    20 Apr 2025Borussia Dortmund v Borussia Mönchengladbach3-2
    07 Dec 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund1-1
    13 Apr 2024Borussia Monchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund1-2
    25 Nov 2023Borussia Dortmund v Borussia Monchengladbach4-2
    13 May 2023Borussia Dortmund v Borussia Monchengladbach5-2
    Market aligned with main pickBorussia Dortmund to WinBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Borussia Dortmund to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Bundesliga

    Borussia Mönchengladbach34
    Played
    Borussia Dortmund34
    Borussia Mönchengladbach1.2
    Avg goals for
    Borussia Dortmund2.1
    Borussia Mönchengladbach1.6
    Avg goals against
    Borussia Dortmund1
    Borussia Mönchengladbach13
    Clean sheets
    Borussia Dortmund15
    Market aligned with main pickBorussia Dortmund to WinBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Borussia Dortmund Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Season data supports Borussia Dortmund to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Borussia Mönchengladbach Over 2.5
    60%Borussia Dortmund Over 2.5
    3.9H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Borussia Mönchengladbach sit at 40% and Borussia Dortmund sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.9 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Borussia Mönchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Betting context

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