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South Africa crestSouth Africa
v
Canada crestCanada

World Cup | Sun 28 Jun, 20:00

South Africa v Canada Stats

Data last updated: Tue 21 Jul 2026, 08:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

South Africa face Canada in World Cup on Sun 28 Jun, 20:00. South Africa managed only three shots in their opening fixture, highlighting a pattern pointing toward a lower-scoring knockout tie. South Africa's streak of 174 clean minutes heavily underscores a single-goal margin layout for Canada's frontline.

BT4Y best bet

Canada to Win & Under 2

  • At 16/5, South Africa Win implies roughly 24%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 28%.
  • South Africa's defensive resurgence suggests they will keep this tight, having gone 174 minutes without conceding.
  • South Africa have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the South Africa Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 28% for South Africa Win sits against roughly 24% implied by the current price. South Africa have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the South Africa Win angle more than a raw possession edge. South Africa's defensive resurgence suggests they will keep this tight, having gone 174 minutes without conceding.

Model chance vs price28% model chance against roughly 24% implied
Neutral
South Africa have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
South Africa's defensive resurgence suggests they will keep this.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: South Africa Win is the preferred angle because south Africa's defensive resurgence suggests they will keep this tight, having gone 174 minutes without conceding. South Africa have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the South Africa Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Broos’ side can turn defence into offence quickly, and that should concern Richie Laryea and Alistair Johnston when they advance from wingback positions.

Main risk

Broos’ side can turn defence into offence quickly, and that should concern Richie Laryea and Alistair Johnston when they advance from wingback positions.

Key Data Signals

South Africa Win evidence

South Africa's defensive resurgence suggests they will keep this tight, having gone 174 minutes without conceding.

South Africa have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the South Africa Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

South Africa Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    South Africa3.33
    Avg corners for
    Canada11.67
    South Africa8
    Avg total corners
    Canada14
    South Africa1.67
    Avg yellow cards
    Canada1.67
    South Africa11
    Avg shots
    Canada19.33
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 51% · edge +17.7 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 60%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    World Cup hubfull betting preview for South Africa v Canadacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    South Africa0.67
    Avg goals scored
    Canada2.67
    South Africa1
    Avg goals conceded
    Canada1
    South Africa33%
    BTTS rate
    Canada67%
    South Africa0%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Canada67%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 49% · edge +18 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSouth Africa to WinBetfred guide price · Model 28% vs implied 19% · edge +8.9 pts
    5.25
    Check odds @ 5.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    South Africa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    3.3
    Check odds @ 3.3
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 60%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    South Africa to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    South Africa

    WDL
    Last 51W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 1L
    25 Jun 2026H South Korea1-0
    18 Jun 2026A Czechia1-1
    11 Jun 2026A Mexico0-2

    Canada

    LWD
    Last 51W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 1L
    24 Jun 2026A Switzerland1-2
    18 Jun 2026H Qatar6-0
    12 Jun 2026H Bosnia & Herzegovina1-1
    Market aligned with main pickSouth Africa to WinBetfred guide price · Model 28% vs implied 19% · edge +8.9 pts
    5.25
    Check odds @ 5.25
    Load more odds for this section
    South Africa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    3.3
    Check odds @ 3.3
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0South Africa wins
    0Draws
    0Canada wins
    Market aligned with main pickSouth Africa to WinBetfred guide price · Model 28% vs implied 19% · edge +8.9 pts
    5.25
    Check odds @ 5.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for South Africa to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    South Africa4
    Played
    Canada5
    South Africa0.5
    Avg goals for
    Canada1.8
    South Africa1
    Avg goals against
    Canada1.2
    South Africa1
    Clean sheets
    Canada2
    Market aligned with main pickSouth Africa to WinBetfred guide price · Model 28% vs implied 19% · edge +8.9 pts
    5.25
    Check odds @ 5.25
    Load more odds for this section
    South Africa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    3.3
    Check odds @ 3.3
    Season data supports South Africa to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2South Africa43111-1
    2Canada431115
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    0%South Africa Over 2.5
    67%Canada Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: South Africa sit at 0% and Canada sit at 67%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    South Africa v Canada prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    World Cup hubWorld Cup hubfull betting preview for South Africa v Canadacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboard

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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