Toluca

Atlas

Liga MX | Sun 13 Sep, 00:05

Toluca v Atlas Stats

Data last updated: Sun 13 Sep 2026, 17:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Toluca and Atlas meet in a Liga MX clash where both teams have shown attacking intent but also defensive vulnerabilities. Toluca ranks third with a strong recent run, while Atlas sits sixth, both tied on 13 points. Toluca's offense is potent, averaging over two goals in recent matches, while Atlas has struggled defensively but maintains a decent goal-scoring record. This fixture promises open play with tactical emphasis on offensive transitions and exploiting defensive gaps, setting the stage for both sides to find the net in a competitive encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

Toluca and Atlas both have a 60% rate of scoring and conceding goals in recent matches.
Toluca averages 23 shots per game with 6.67 on target, indicating strong attacking pressure.
Atlas concedes 1.4 goals per game but also manages to score 1.2, supporting BTTS potential.
Head-to-head matches average 2.8 goals, showing openness and goal opportunities for both sides.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 70% probability to both teams scoring, supported by Toluca's aggressive offense and Atlas's tendency to concede while still scoring. Toluca's high shot volume and Atlas's defensive lapses create a scenario favoring goals at both ends. The 12.9% at of 1.75 indicates a strong betting opportunity with standard stake guidance. No data limitations affect , reinforcing the pick as a solid choice based on recent form and attacking profiles.

Model Chance70%

Strong positive

Toluca Attack23 shots/game, 6.67 on target

Strong positive

Atlas Defensive Concession1.4 goals against per game

Positive

Value Edge12.9%

Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown the ability to score and concede, making the Both Teams to Score bet a logical choice. Toluca's offensive firepower combined with Atlas's defensive vulnerabilities suggests a match where goals at both ends are likely. The data supports an open game with attacking intent from both sides, aligning well with this pick.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score rationale

“Toluca's high shot volume and Atlas's goal concessions create a fertile environment for goals at both ends, making BTTS a compelling angle for this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Toluca and Atlas both have a 60% rate of scoring and conceding goals in recent matches.

Toluca averages 23 shots per game with 6.67 on target, indicating strong attacking pressure.

Atlas concedes 1.4 goals per game but also manages to score 1.2, supporting BTTS potential.

Head-to-head matches average 2.8 goals, showing openness and goal opportunities for both sides.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

In the last ten head-to-head meetings, an average of 2.8 goals per game has been recorded, with a consistent pattern of both teams scoring.
This trend over a significant sample size highlights the fixture's tendency towards open, attacking football with multiple goal opportunities.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Toluca6.6

Avg corners for

Atlas4.2

Toluca10.8

Avg total corners

Atlas10.2

Toluca1.2

Avg yellow cards

Atlas2

Toluca19.4

Avg shots

Atlas11.6

Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 55% · edge -2.8 pts

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

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Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Toluca's control in shots (23 per game) and corners (5.67) indicates sustained attacking pressure, while Atlas's lower shot volume (11.6) and corners (4.2) suggest a reactive approach. The moderate card averages (Toluca 1.67 yellows, Atlas 2) reflect a competitive but not overly aggressive match environment, conducive to open play and goal chances.

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corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles stats dashboard football analysis hub prediction centre best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Toluca2

Avg goals scored

Atlas1.2

Toluca0.8

Avg goals conceded

Atlas1.4

Toluca60%

BTTS rate

Atlas60%

Toluca80%

Over 2.5 goals

Atlas40%

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 57% · edge +12.9 pts

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 77%

1.18

Check odds @ 1.18

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%

2.5

Check odds @ 2.5

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%

Check odds @ 2

Toluca and Atlas both average around 1 to 1.2 goals scored per game while conceding 0.8 and 1.4 respectively, supporting the likelihood of goals at both ends. Their 60% BTTS rate in recent matches and a head-to-head average of 2.8 goals underline an open game with balanced scoring opportunities.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 57% · edge +12.9 pts

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

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Atlas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%

3.7

Check odds @ 3.7

Toluca to WinBetfred guide price · model 65%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

Toluca Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 73%

1.26

Check odds @ 1.26

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Atlas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%

6.5

Check odds @ 6.5

DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%

4.33

Check odds @ 4.33

The Both Teams to Score market is priced attractively at 1.75 with a of 70%, offering a positive of nearly 13%. This price reflects in both sides' attacking capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities, making it a favorable betting angle without price sensitivity concerns.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Toluca

WWDWL

Last 53W 1D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 104W 1D 1L

31 Aug 2026H FC Juarez4-0

22 Aug 2026A Club Queretaro2-1

16 Aug 2026A Atlante FC0-0

03 Aug 2026H Necaxa3-1

22 Jul 2026H U.N.A.M. - Pumas1-2

Atlas

DLWWL

Last 52W 1D 2L

Last 5 record

Last 104W 1D 2L

06 Sep 2026H Atlante FC1-1

30 Aug 2026H Club Queretaro1-3

23 Aug 2026A Cruz Azul2-0

16 Aug 2026H Tigres UANL2-1

02 Aug 2026H Monterrey0-2

Best odds for this sectionAtlas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts

3.7

Check odds @ 3.7

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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%

1.1

Check odds @ 1.1

Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 46%

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

Toluca to WinBetfred guide price · model 65%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

Toluca Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 73%

1.26

Check odds @ 1.26

Atlas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%

6.5

Check odds @ 6.5

DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%

4.33

Check odds @ 4.33

Toluca's recent form shows 10 points with an 80% over 2.5 goals rate and 60% BTTS rate, highlighting offensive strength and openness. Atlas has 7 points with a 60% BTTS rate but a lower over 2.5 goals rate (40%), indicating a slightly more cautious approach but still prone to conceding. Both teams' recent matches suggest a high chance of goals at both ends.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Toluca wins

5Draws

1Atlas wins

15 Mar 2026Toluca v Atlas1-1

01 Nov 2025Atlas v Toluca0-0

13 Apr 2025Atlas v Toluca2-3

29 Sep 2024Toluca v Atlas4-1

07 Apr 2024Toluca v Atlas4-1

27 Aug 2023Atlas v Toluca0-0

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 57% · edge +12.9 pts

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

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Toluca to WinBetfred guide price · model 65%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Atlas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%

6.5

Check odds @ 6.5

DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%

4.33

Check odds @ 4.33

The ten previous encounters between Toluca and Atlas have produced an average of 2.8 goals per game, demonstrating a history of open contests with goals at both ends. This historical data moderately supports the BTTS selection, indicating that both teams have found the net regularly when facing each other.

Season team stats

Liga MX

Toluca7

Played

Atlas8

Toluca2.4

Avg goals for

Atlas1.5

Toluca0.9

Avg goals against

Atlas1.8

Toluca3

Clean sheets

Atlas2

Best odds for this sectionAtlas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts

3.7

Check odds @ 3.7

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Toluca to WinBetfred guide price · model 65%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

Toluca Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 73%

1.26

Check odds @ 1.26

Atlas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%

6.5

Check odds @ 6.5

Season-long data reveals Toluca's potent attack averaging over 2 goals per game and a solid defensive record conceding less than one goal per match. Atlas balances scoring 1.2 goals with conceding 1.4, reflecting a team that scores but is vulnerable defensively. These stats support the BTTS pick as both teams have the capacity to score and concede regularly.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
1	Toluca	16	7	5	1	1	11
8	Atlas	13	8	4	1	3	-2

Toluca sits third and Atlas sixth in Liga MX, both with 13 points, indicating competitive stakes for European qualification or playoff positioning. This parity suggests both teams will seek to assert themselves offensively, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides rather than a defensive stalemate.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Toluca Over 2.5

40%Atlas Over 2.5

2.8H2H avg goals

In the last ten head-to-head meetings, an average of 2.8 goals per game has been recorded, with a consistent pattern of both teams scoring. This trend over a significant sample size highlights the fixture's tendency towards open, attacking football with multiple goal opportunities.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Toluca v Atlas Stats

Match Report

Both Teams to Score

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Toluca

Atlas

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Toluca v Atlas Stats

Match Report

Both Teams to Score

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Toluca

Atlas

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