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v
Brazil crestBrazil

World Cup | Wed 24 Jun, 23:00

Scotland v Brazil Stats

Data last updated: Fri 17 Jul 2026, 01:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Scotland face Brazil in World Cup on Wed 24 Jun, 23:00. Miami Pressure, Midfield Collisions And A Group C Night With Teeth. Ancelotti's side showed defensive authority with consecutive clean sheets, nullifying Haiti effectively. Brazil are in strong form after a clean 3-0 victory against Haiti, showing tactical control and defensive solidity.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Of 2-0 means the bet wins only if Brazil score exactly two goals and Scotland score zero goals by full-time

  • At 4/11, Scotland Win implies roughly 73%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 28%.
  • They cannot live with Cunha constantly receiving between bodies and turning the defensive line around.
  • Brazil have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Scotland.
  • Scotland have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Scotland Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
Price warning

Of 2-0 means the bet wins only if Brazil score exactly two goals and Scotland score zero goals by full-time is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 73% while the model sits nearer 28% (-45.8 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Scotland Draw No Bet shows a +26 pts edge at 5.25.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 28% for Scotland Win sits against roughly 73% implied by the current price. Brazil have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Scotland. They cannot live with Cunha constantly receiving between bodies and turning the defensive line around.

Model chance vs price28% model chance against roughly 73% implied
Negative
Brazil have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points.Visible data support
Positive
Scotland have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
They cannot live with Cunha constantly receiving between bodies.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Scotland Win is the preferred angle because they cannot live with Cunha constantly receiving between bodies and turning the defensive line around. Brazil have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Scotland. It would not bring the clean certainty of a top-two finish, but it would at least leave Clarke’s side standing rather than scrambling through the wreckage.

Main risk

It would not bring the clean certainty of a top-two finish, but it would at least leave Clarke’s side standing rather than scrambling through the wreckage.

Key Data Signals

Scotland Win evidence

They cannot live with Cunha constantly receiving between bodies and turning the defensive line around.

Brazil have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Scotland.

Scotland have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Scotland Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Scotland Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Scotland2
    Avg corners for
    Brazil6
    Scotland7
    Avg total corners
    Brazil8
    Scotland1
    Avg yellow cards
    Brazil2
    Scotland6
    Avg shots
    Brazil12
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 48% · edge +9.9 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
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    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 35%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 29%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    World Cup fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Scotland0.5
    Avg goals scored
    Brazil2
    Scotland0.5
    Avg goals conceded
    Brazil0.5
    Scotland0%
    BTTS rate
    Brazil50%
    Scotland0%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Brazil50%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 52% · edge +13.6 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickScotland to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 12% · edge +15.7 pts
    8.5
    Check odds @ 8.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Scotland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    5.25
    Check odds @ 5.25
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 35%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Scotland to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Scotland

    LW
    Last 51W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 1L
    19 Jun 2026H Morocco0-1
    14 Jun 2026A Haiti1-0

    Brazil

    WD
    Last 51W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 0L
    20 Jun 2026H Haiti3-0
    13 Jun 2026H Morocco1-1
    Market aligned with main pickScotland to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 12% · edge +15.7 pts
    8.5
    Check odds @ 8.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Scotland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    5.25
    Check odds @ 5.25
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Scotland wins
    0Draws
    0Brazil wins
    Market aligned with main pickScotland to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 12% · edge +15.7 pts
    8.5
    Check odds @ 8.5
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Scotland to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Scotland3
    Played
    Brazil5
    Scotland0.3
    Avg goals for
    Brazil2
    Scotland1.3
    Avg goals against
    Brazil0.8
    Scotland1
    Clean sheets
    Brazil2
    Market aligned with main pickScotland to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 12% · edge +15.7 pts
    8.5
    Check odds @ 8.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Scotland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    5.25
    Check odds @ 5.25
    Season data supports Scotland to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Brazil732106
    3Scotland33102-3
    11Scotland33102-3
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    0%Scotland Over 2.5
    50%Brazil Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Scotland sit at 0% and Brazil sit at 50%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Scotland v Brazil prediction

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    Betting context

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