Santos

Macara

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Thu 13 Aug, 23:00

Santos v Macara Stats

Data last updated: Wed 12 Aug 2026, 08:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This CONMEBOL Sudamericana clash features Santos and Macara, two teams with contrasting defensive and disciplinary profiles. Santos, ranked second, bring an aggressive attacking style that often draws fouls, while Macara, sitting top, are known for their physical approach and higher card counts. Recent form shows Santos averaging 1.8 yellows per game and Macara 3.33, setting the stage for a potentially card-heavy encounter. Both sides have offensive threats that could provoke tactical fouls, making this a match where disciplinary action is likely to be a significant factor.

BT4Y best bet

Over 4.5 Cards

Macara average 3.33 yellow cards per game, indicating a high foul rate
Santos concede 1.2 goals per game, often engaging in physical defensive actions
Both teams have aggressive midfielders and defenders with high foul counts
Recent matches involving these teams show a tendency for multiple cards awarded

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 4.5 Cards as a strong selection with a 64.3% chance, slightly above the market's implied 61.7%, suggesting a small positive . Macara's high average of 3.33 yellow cards per game combined with Santos' physical defensive style supports a match likely to exceed 4.5 cards. The presence of players like L. Jiménez, who have high card risk indexes, further increases the likelihood of multiple bookings. This pick is supported by solid disciplinary data and recent form trends.

Model Chance64.3%

Strong positive

Macara Yellow Cards Average3.33 per game

Strong positive

Santos Defensive FoulsPhysical style with 1.8 yellows per game

Positive

Key Players Card RiskHigh card risk on Macara defenders

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physical and intense match where disciplinary action will be prominent. Macara's aggressive defensive approach combined with Santos' pressing style creates conditions for multiple fouls and cards. The data on average cards per game and player card risks strongly supports betting on Over 4.5 Cards in this fixture.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“This fixture features two teams whose styles naturally lead to a high number of fouls and bookings, making Over 4.5 Cards a compelling market. Macara's defenders have a particularly high card risk, which should be a key factor in the match's disciplinary outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Over 4.5 Cards evidence

Macara average 3.33 yellow cards per game, indicating a high foul rate

Santos concede 1.2 goals per game, often engaging in physical defensive actions

Both teams have aggressive midfielders and defenders with high foul counts

Recent matches involving these teams show a tendency for multiple cards awarded

What To Watch In The Data

Over 4.5 Cards notes

Over the last five matches, Santos have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating open play and attacking tempo.
Macara's lower scoring rate contrasts with their physical defensive style, which often results in fouls and cards.
This trend suggests a match with offensive opportunities and defensive aggression, supporting a high card count.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Santos4.4

Avg corners for

Macara6.75

Santos8.6

Avg total corners

Macara10.75

Santos1.8

Avg yellow cards

Macara3.25

Santos16.2

Avg shots

Macara13.75

Market aligned with main pickOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 62% · edge +2.1 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Load more odds for this section

Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price

Check odds @ 2

Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 57%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 63%

1.33

Check odds @ 1.33

Macara's high average of 3.33 yellow cards per game and Santos' 1.8 yellows reflect a physical contest. Santos average 16.2 shots with 5.4 on target, indicating sustained pressure that can lead to tactical fouls. Macara's 8 corners per game show attacking intent, which combined with their aggressive fouling, supports a high card count.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles football stats hub football hub football predictions hub best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Santos2.8

Avg goals scored

Macara1

Santos1.2

Avg goals conceded

Macara0.4

Santos80%

BTTS rate

Macara20%

Santos80%

Over 2.5 goals

Macara20%

Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Load more odds for this section

BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 23%

2.75

Check odds @ 2.75

Santos average 2.8 goals per game with an 80% Over 2.5 rate, while Macara average 1 goal per game with only a 20% Over 2.5 rate. BTTS rates mirror this disparity, with Santos at 80% and Macara at 20%. This suggests a game where Santos' attack could dominate, potentially increasing fouls and cards as Macara defends aggressively.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 52% · edge +7.6 pts

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

Load more odds for this section

Macara Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 39%

4.25

Check odds @ 4.25

Macara to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

Check odds @ 7

Santos to WinBetMGM guide price · model 61%

1.42

Check odds @ 1.42

Santos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%

1.21

Check odds @ 1.21

DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%

4.75

Check odds @ 4.75

Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 63%

1.33

Check odds @ 1.33

The Over 4.5 Cards market is priced at 1.62 with a of 64.3%, indicating a slight over the implied 61.7%. This suggests the market is reasonably efficient but leans towards a card-heavy game given the teams' disciplinary records. The reflect a fair assessment of the likelihood, making this a solid but not overwhelming value bet.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Santos

WWWDD

Last 53W 2D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 103W 4D 1L

29 Jul 2026H UCV4-2

22 Jul 2026A UCV4-1

27 May 2026H Deportivo Cuenca3-0

20 May 2026H San Lorenzo2-2

06 May 2026A Deportivo Recoleta1-1

Macara

DDDWW

Last 52W 3D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 103W 4D 0L

29 May 2026A America de Cali0-0

22 May 2026H Alianza Atletico0-0

07 May 2026H Tigre2-2

01 May 2026A Alianza Atletico2-0

16 Apr 2026A Tigre1-0

Best odds for this sectionMacara Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts

4.25

Check odds @ 4.25

Load more odds for this section

Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%

2.75

Check odds @ 2.75

Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 85%

1.1

Check odds @ 1.1

Macara to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

Check odds @ 7

Santos to WinBetMGM guide price · model 61%

1.42

Check odds @ 1.42

Santos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%

1.21

Check odds @ 1.21

DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%

4.75

Check odds @ 4.75

Recent form data shows Macara accumulating 9 points with a high card average, while Santos have 11 points and a lower card average. The contrast in disciplinary records suggests Macara's aggressive style will push the total cards over 4.5, especially against Santos' pressing and attacking play that often draws fouls.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Santos wins

0Draws

0Macara wins

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 52% · edge +7.6 pts

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

Load more odds for this section

Macara to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

Check odds @ 7

Santos to WinBetMGM guide price · model 61%

1.42

Check odds @ 1.42

DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%

4.75

Check odds @ 4.75

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

No previous meetings exist between Santos and Macara, so head-to-head data offers no direct insight. The focus shifts to current form and disciplinary trends, which strongly favor a match with multiple cards given both teams' playing styles and season-long fouling rates.

Season team stats

CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Santos8

Played

Macara7

Santos2

Avg goals for

Macara1

Santos1.1

Avg goals against

Macara0.4

Santos1

Clean sheets

Macara5

Best odds for this sectionMacara Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts

4.25

Check odds @ 4.25

Load more odds for this section

Macara to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

Check odds @ 7

Santos to WinBetMGM guide price · model 61%

1.42

Check odds @ 1.42

Santos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%

1.21

Check odds @ 1.21

Season-long stats reveal Macara's defensive players commit more fouls and receive more cards, with averages exceeding 3 yellows per game. Santos' attacking pressure and moderate defensive fouling contribute to a match environment conducive to multiple cards. These season trends underpin the likelihood of surpassing 4.5 cards.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
1	Macara	10	6	2	4	0	3
2	Santos	7	6	1	4	1	2

While Macara leads the standings and Santos are second, the competition context emphasizes high stakes and intensity. Both teams are motivated to assert control, often leading to aggressive play and disciplinary sanctions. The standings pressure adds to the likelihood of a physical, card-filled encounter.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Santos Over 2.5

20%Macara Over 2.5

-H2H avg goals

Over the last five matches, Santos have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating open play and attacking tempo. Macara's lower scoring rate contrasts with their physical defensive style, which often results in fouls and cards. This trend suggests a match with offensive opportunities and defensive aggression, supporting a high card count.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Santos v Macara Stats

Match Report

Over 4.5 Cards

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Santos

Macara

Next step

Your privacy choices

Football Stats Hub

Santos v Macara Stats

Match Report

Over 4.5 Cards

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Santos

Macara

Related football research

Prediction context

More stats pages

Competition and hubs

Next step