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Santos crestSantos
v
Atletico-MG crestAtletico-MG

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Wed 09 Sep, 23:00

Santos v Atletico-MG Stats

Data last updated: Tue 08 Sep 2026, 08:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Santos hosts Atletico-MG in a pivotal CONMEBOL Sudamericana clash where both sides are in strong form. Santos sits second in the standings, just behind Atletico-MG, and has been prolific offensively, averaging 2.6 goals per game recently. Atletico-MG, while solid defensively, has a lower scoring rate and faces the challenge of breaking down a confident Santos side. The match promises tactical intensity with Santos aiming to leverage home advantage and attacking depth to secure a vital win.

BT4Y best bet

Santos to Win

  • Santos leads recent form with 13 points versus Atletico-MG's 11 in last matches.
  • Santos averages 2.6 goals per game compared to Atletico-MG's 1.6, showing stronger attack.
  • Santos has a high Over 2.5 Goals rate at 80%, indicating open, attacking games.
  • Santos averages more shots (15) and shots on target (5.6) than Atletico-MG (11.4 and 4.4).
  • Santos ranks 2nd in the competition, closely trailing Atletico-MG, adding competitive edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Santos to win with a 59% chance, reflecting their superior recent scoring form and home advantage. Santos' attack is more potent, averaging 2.6 goals per game and generating more shots and shots on target than Atletico-MG. The of 16.4% at of 2.35 suggests this is a positive price for a home win. Defensive solidity on both sides keeps the game competitive, but Santos' offensive depth and momentum underpin the model's .

Model Win Probability59%
Strong positive
Recent Goals Scored (Santos)2.6 per game
Strong positive
Shots per Game (Santos)15
Positive
Implied Chance vs Model16.4% value edge
Strong positive
Defensive Concession Rate0.8 goals against both teams
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Santos' recent attacking form and home momentum make them the tactical favorite to secure victory. Their higher goal output and shot volume provide a solid data foundation for expecting a home win in this competitive Sudamericana fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Santos' offensive firepower and home advantage create a compelling case for their win, especially given Atletico-MG's more cautious scoring approach. This match hinges on Santos' ability to convert chances and maintain pressure.”

Key Data Signals

Santos to Win evidence

Santos leads recent form with 13 points versus Atletico-MG's 11 in last matches.

Santos averages 2.6 goals per game compared to Atletico-MG's 1.6, showing stronger attack.

Santos has a high Over 2.5 Goals rate at 80%, indicating open, attacking games.

Santos averages more shots (15) and shots on target (5.6) than Atletico-MG (11.4 and 4.4).

What To Watch In The Data

Santos to Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between Santos and Atletico-MG is 2, with Santos' recent games showing an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate.
  • This trend suggests a faster tempo and attacking openness in Santos' matches, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Santos4.2
Avg corners for
Atletico-MG5.4
Santos8.4
Avg total corners
Atletico-MG10.8
Santos2.2
Avg yellow cards
Atletico-MG1.6
Santos15
Avg shots
Atletico-MG11.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 51% · edge +6.3 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Santos averages more shots (15) and shots on target (5.6) than Atletico-MG, reflecting territorial control and attacking pressure. Atletico-MG averages more corners (5.4) but fewer shots, indicating reliance on set pieces. Card counts are moderate, with Santos slightly higher in yellows, suggesting a competitive but disciplined encounter.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Santos2.6
Avg goals scored
Atletico-MG1.6
Santos0.8
Avg goals conceded
Atletico-MG0.8
Santos60%
BTTS rate
Atletico-MG40%
Santos80%
Over 2.5 goals
Atletico-MG40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 52% · edge +10.9 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Santos' matches have an 80% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, indicating open, attacking games with multiple goals. Their 60% BTTS rate suggests both teams often score, contrasting with Atletico-MG's more conservative 40% rates. This trend supports a match with goal-scoring opportunities favoring Santos.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSantos to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
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Santos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
The for Santos to win at 2.35 offer a positive of 16.4%, reflecting the model's in their superior recent form and attacking metrics. This price is attractive given Santos' higher goal-scoring rate and home advantage, making the market a strong candidate for backing.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Santos

DWWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 5D 1L
20 Aug 2026A Macara0-0
13 Aug 2026H Macara2-1
29 Jul 2026H UCV4-2
22 Jul 2026A UCV4-1
27 May 2026H Deportivo Cuenca3-0

Atletico-MG

DWWWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 2L
19 Aug 2026H RB Bragantino2-2
12 Aug 2026A RB Bragantino1-0
27 May 2026H Puerto Cabello1-0
21 May 2026H Cienciano2-0
05 May 2026A Juventud2-2
Market aligned with main pickSantos to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Santos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Santos has accumulated 13 points recently, outperforming Atletico-MG's 11, reflecting stronger momentum. Their higher goals scored and Over 2.5 Goals rate underline an attacking edge, while maintaining a solid defensive concession rate of 0.8 goals per game, supporting in a home win.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Santos wins
3Draws
4Atletico-MG wins
12 Apr 2026Santos v Atletico-MG1-0
14 Sep 2025Atletico-MG v Santos1-1
17 Apr 2025Santos v Atletico-MG2-0
27 Aug 2023Atletico-MG v Santos2-0
23 Apr 2023Santos v Atletico-MG0-0
06 Oct 2022Santos v Atletico-MG1-2
Market aligned with main pickSantos to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
The last ten meetings between Santos and Atletico-MG have averaged 2 goals per game, indicating moderately open encounters. While the sample shows balanced outcomes, Santos' current form and home advantage provide a stronger edge than historical results alone.
Season team stats

CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Santos10
Played
Atletico-MG8
Santos1.8
Avg goals for
Atletico-MG1.4
Santos1
Avg goals against
Atletico-MG1
Santos2
Clean sheets
Atletico-MG3
Market aligned with main pickSantos to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Load more odds for this section
Santos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Santos' season stats reveal a potent attack averaging 2.6 goals per game and a sturdy defense conceding 0.8 goals, aligning with their second-place ranking. Atletico-MG's lower scoring rate and similar defensive concession suggest Santos' offensive superiority will be decisive.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Atletico-MG1063122
2Santos761412
Santos sits second in the Sudamericana standings, closely trailing Atletico-MG. This proximity adds competitive tension, with Santos motivated to close the gap at home. The standings context highlights the fixture's importance for both teams' progression ambitions.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Santos Over 2.5
40%Atletico-MG Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between Santos and Atletico-MG is 2, with Santos' recent games showing an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate. This trend suggests a faster tempo and attacking openness in Santos' matches, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals in this fixture.

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