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San Diego crestSan Diego
v
Philadelphia Union crestPhiladelphia Union

Major League Soccer | Mon 14 Sep, 02:00

San Diego v Philadelphia Union Stats

Data last updated: Sun 13 Sep 2026, 08:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Philadelphia Union visit San Diego in a Major League Soccer clash where both teams sit level on points but are eager to climb the standings. Philadelphia Union have shown stronger recent form and defensive solidity, conceding just 0.8 goals per game compared to San Diego's 1.6. San Diego's attack is lively but inconsistent, while Philadelphia's balanced approach and tactical discipline make them favorites. This match will test Philadelphia's ability to control the game away from home against a San Diego side that thrives on open play and set-piece opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Philadelphia Union to Win

  • Philadelphia Union have a 70% to win with strong value at 2.4 .
  • Philadelphia Union concede only 0.8 goals per game, indicating defensive strength.
  • San Diego averages 12.8 shots per game, but Philadelphia counters with 16.6 shots, showing offensive pressure.
  • Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, but Philadelphia's defensive record suggests a tighter game.
  • Sullivan provide consistent attacking threat with high shot volumes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Philadelphia Union to win due to their superior defensive record, conceding only 0.8 goals per game compared to San Diego's 1.6, and their higher average shots per game (16.6 vs 12.8), indicating greater offensive pressure. Philadelphia's recent form with 11 points versus San Diego's 6 further supports this. The of 2.4 offer positive value given the model's 70% win probability, making this a strong selection without price warnings.

Defensive solidity0.8 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Offensive pressure16.6 average shots per game
Positive
Recent form11 points in last matches
Strong positive
Price value2.4 odds vs 70% chance
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Philadelphia Union's defensive discipline and superior recent form position them well to secure a win against San Diego. Their ability to generate more shots and limit opponents' chances should prove decisive in this matchup, making them the favored side tactically and statistically.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and player impact

“Philadelphia Union combine solid defense with effective attacking patterns, especially through key players like Iloski and Sullivan, which should give them the edge in this contest.”

Key Data Signals

Philadelphia Union to Win evidence

Philadelphia Union have a 70% to win with strong value at 2.4 .

Philadelphia Union concede only 0.8 goals per game, indicating defensive strength.

San Diego averages 12.8 shots per game, but Philadelphia counters with 16.6 shots, showing offensive pressure.

Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, but Philadelphia's defensive record suggests a tighter game.

What To Watch In The Data

Philadelphia Union to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, San Diego has an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating open, high-scoring games.
  • Philadelphia Union's 60% rate suggests a more measured approach.
  • The average goals per game in this matchup context point to a moderately paced game with chances for goals, driven by San Diego's attacking style and Philadelphia's counter-attacking threat.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

San Diego3.5
Avg corners for
Philadelphia Union6
San Diego8.25
Avg total corners
Philadelphia Union8.6
San Diego2.75
Avg yellow cards
Philadelphia Union2.4
San Diego10.75
Avg shots
Philadelphia Union16.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 58% · edge +6.7 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Philadelphia Union average 6 corners and 16.6 shots per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure and territorial control. San Diego's 4.2 corners and 12.8 shots reflect a more reactive style. Both teams average 2.4 yellow cards per match, suggesting a balanced fouling profile without excessive discipline issues influencing the game flow.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

San Diego1.8
Avg goals scored
Philadelphia Union2.6
San Diego1.6
Avg goals conceded
Philadelphia Union0.8
San Diego60%
BTTS rate
Philadelphia Union60%
San Diego80%
Over 2.5 goals
Philadelphia Union60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 69% · edge +3.9 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 83%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 31%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, but Philadelphia Union's strong defensive record (0.8 goals conceded per game) suggests a tighter game with fewer goals conceded. San Diego's higher goals against average (1.6) and 80% Over 2.5 rate indicate potential for goals, but Philadelphia's defensive discipline may limit scoring opportunities, pointing to a moderately open game with goal chances.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPhiladelphia Union to WinBetUK guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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Philadelphia Union Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The current of 2.4 for Philadelphia Union to win reflect a positive value opportunity given the model's 70% win probability. This pricing suggests the market underestimates Philadelphia's defensive strength and offensive output, making the selection attractive without requiring caution on price sensitivity.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

San Diego

LLWWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
10 Sep 2026H San Jose Earthquakes2-3
06 Sep 2026A Orlando City SC0-1
30 Aug 2026H Los Angeles Galaxy3-1
23 Aug 2026H Colorado Rapids3-0
20 Aug 2026A Portland Timbers1-3

Philadelphia Union

WWWDD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 2D 1L
10 Sep 2026H FC Cincinnati5-0
06 Sep 2026H CF Montreal2-0
30 Aug 2026A New York Red Bulls3-1
23 Aug 2026A Austin1-1
20 Aug 2026H Inter Miami2-2
Market aligned with main pickPhiladelphia Union to WinBetUK guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Philadelphia Union Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Philadelphia Union have accumulated 11 points recently, showcasing improved consistency and defensive resilience, conceding only 0.8 goals per game. San Diego's 6 points and higher goals conceded indicate more vulnerability. This form disparity underpins Philadelphia's favored status and suggests momentum advantage heading into the match.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0San Diego wins
0Draws
0Philadelphia Union wins
Market aligned with main pickPhiladelphia Union to WinBetUK guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
No previous head-to-head data exists between these teams, so historical matchup trends offer no guidance. Tactical setups, current form, and player availability will be more decisive factors in predicting the outcome.
Season team stats

Major League Soccer

San Diego24
Played
Philadelphia Union24
San Diego1.8
Avg goals for
Philadelphia Union1.7
San Diego1.5
Avg goals against
Philadelphia Union1.6
San Diego7
Clean sheets
Philadelphia Union5
Market aligned with main pickPhiladelphia Union to WinBetUK guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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Philadelphia Union Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Philadelphia Union's season-long statistics reveal a balanced attack averaging 2.6 goals per game and a strong defense conceding 0.8 goals, highlighting their ability to control matches. San Diego's higher goals conceded and slightly lower scoring rate reflect a more open but less stable approach, reinforcing Philadelphia's edge in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9San Diego302486105
9Philadelphia Union302486102
Both teams sit 9th with 30 points, but Philadelphia Union's superior goal difference and recent form provide them with a tactical and psychological advantage. The standings context adds pressure for both sides to secure points, but Philadelphia's steadier performance suggests they are better positioned to capitalize.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%San Diego Over 2.5
60%Philadelphia Union Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, San Diego has an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating open, high-scoring games. Philadelphia Union's 60% rate suggests a more measured approach. The average goals per game in this matchup context point to a moderately paced game with chances for goals, driven by San Diego's attacking style and Philadelphia's counter-attacking threat.

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