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Rodez crestRodez
v
Nancy crestNancy

Ligue 2 | Fri 18 Sep, 19:00

Rodez v Nancy Stats

Data last updated: Thu 17 Sep 2026, 08:16 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Rodez and Nancy meet in Ligue 2 with both sides showing cautious attacking output this season. Rodez averages 1.6 goals per game but concedes 2.2, while Nancy scores less at 0.8 and defends better, conceding only 0.8 per match. Recent form suggests a tactical battle with limited goal-scoring chances, as Nancy's defensive solidity contrasts with Rodez's more open style. Both teams sit mid-table with similar points, setting up a contest where defensive discipline and low tempo could limit scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Rodez concedes 2.2 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities but limited scoring.
  • Nancy has a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.8 goals per game this season.
  • Both teams have low BTTS rates, with Nancy at 20% and Rodez at 60%.
  • Recent form shows Rodez and Nancy averaging fewer than 2.5 goals in most matches.
  • H2H meetings average 2.25 goals, supporting a lower-scoring expectation.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Under 2.5 Goals at 60.5% chance, above the implied 51.3% from , offering a positive of 9.2%. Both teams exhibit defensive caution, with Nancy especially strong at limiting goals conceded. Rodez's higher goals conceded is balanced by their modest scoring, suggesting matches may not exceed 2.5 goals frequently. The H2H average of 2.25 goals and low BTTS rates reinforce the likelihood of a low-scoring game. No data limitations or price warnings affect this pick, supporting a standard stake.

Model Chance60.5%
Strong positive
Implied Chance51.3%
Positive
Value Edge9.2%
Strong positive
Rodez Defensive Record2.2 goals conceded per game
Neutral
Nancy Defensive Record0.8 goals conceded per game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This Under 2.5 Goals pick reflects the tactical caution expected from both sides, with Nancy's solid defense likely to suppress scoring. Rodez's inconsistency in attack and defense suggests limited goal opportunities. The data supports a tight game where defensive discipline will be key, making a low-scoring outcome plausible.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive solidity and tactical caution

“Nancy's defensive resilience combined with Rodez's modest attacking threat points to a match where goals will be scarce. Expect a tactical battle with few clear-cut chances.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Rodez concedes 2.2 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities but limited scoring.

Nancy has a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.8 goals per game this season.

Both teams have low BTTS rates, with Nancy at 20% and Rodez at 60%.

Recent form shows Rodez and Nancy averaging fewer than 2.5 goals in most matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last eight H2H matches average 2.25 goals, indicating a trend toward low to moderate scoring.
  • This sample suggests a tempo and defensive balance that limits goal totals, consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals trend over recent encounters between these teams.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Rodez1.6
Avg goals scored
Nancy0.8
Rodez2.2
Avg goals conceded
Nancy0.8
Rodez60%
BTTS rate
Nancy20%
Rodez60%
Over 2.5 goals
Nancy20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 51% · edge +9.2 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
3
Check odds @ 3
Both teams show low BTTS rates, especially Nancy at 20%, indicating matches often end with one or no team scoring. Rodez's 60% BTTS rate is higher but balanced by their defensive frailties. The H2H average of 2.25 goals supports a trend toward fewer goals, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals angle.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionNancy Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 49% · edge +11.1 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Nancy to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Rodez Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.95, reflecting a 51.3% implied chance, while the model estimates a 60.5% probability, indicating positive value. This suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of a low-scoring game, making the bet attractive without price warnings or need for stake reduction.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Rodez7
Avg corners for
Nancy4
Rodez11.6
Avg total corners
Nancy7.5
Rodez1.2
Avg yellow cards
Nancy1.25
Rodez14.8
Avg shots
Nancy14.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +2.1 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Rodez averages 7 corners per game, indicating some attacking pressure, but Nancy's 3.4 corners and lower shots on target (3 per game) reflect a more defensive posture. Card counts are moderate, with Nancy's H. Tavares showing some disciplinary risk, suggesting a physical but controlled match with limited open-play chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Rodez

LLDWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 3L
11 Sep 2026H Grenoble0-1
05 Sep 2026A Metz1-4
28 Aug 2026H PAU2-2
22 Aug 2026A Nantes5-2
14 Aug 2026A Annecy0-2

Nancy

LLWWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 3L
11 Sep 2026H Reims1-2
07 Sep 2026A Nantes0-1
28 Aug 2026H Dunkerque2-0
21 Aug 2026A PAU1-0
14 Aug 2026H Montpellier0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 78% vs implied 65% · edge +12.1 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Nancy Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 60%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Nancy to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Rodez Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Rodez to WinBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Recent form data shows Rodez scoring 1.6 goals per game but conceding 2.2, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. Nancy scores less at 0.8 but concedes only 0.8, highlighting defensive strength. Both teams have Under 2.5 Goals rates consistent with this pick, supporting expectations of a low-scoring match.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Rodez wins
6Draws
0Nancy wins
23 Jan 2026Nancy v Rodez1-3
09 Aug 2025Rodez v Nancy0-0
19 Apr 2022Rodez v Nancy1-1
20 Nov 2021Nancy v Rodez0-2
08 May 2021Rodez v Nancy1-1
08 Jan 2021Nancy v Rodez2-2
Best odds for this sectionNancy to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 36% · edge +14.7 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Rodez to WinBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
The eight previous meetings between Rodez and Nancy have averaged 2.25 goals per game, showing a pattern of relatively low scoring. This historical data supports the expectation of a tight match with limited goal opportunities, aligning well with the Under 2.5 Goals pick.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Ligue 2

Rodez6
Played
Nancy6
Rodez1.8
Avg goals for
Nancy0.7
Rodez2
Avg goals against
Nancy0.7
Rodez0
Clean sheets
Nancy3
Best odds for this sectionNancy Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 49% · edge +11.1 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Nancy to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Rodez Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Rodez to WinBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Season-long stats reveal Rodez's higher goals conceded contrasts with Nancy's solid defense. Both teams' scoring rates are modest, with Nancy particularly low. These profiles suggest matches are more likely to stay under 2.5 goals, especially given Nancy's defensive discipline and Rodez's inconsistent attack.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
10Nancy762130
11Rodez76213-1
Both teams occupy mid-table positions with 7 points each, reflecting similar competitive levels and no urgent need for high-risk attacking play. This stable league standing supports a cautious approach, likely resulting in fewer goals and reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Rodez Over 2.5
20%Nancy Over 2.5
2.25H2H avg goals
The last eight H2H matches average 2.25 goals, indicating a trend toward low to moderate scoring. This sample suggests a tempo and defensive balance that limits goal totals, consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals trend over recent encounters between these teams.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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