Football Stats Hub

QPR crestQPR
v
Derby crestDerby

Championship | Wed 14 Oct, 19:45

QPR v Derby Stats

Data last updated: Tue 13 Oct 2026, 10:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Championship fixture at Loftus Road sees Derby County fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive, sitting eighth and four points shy with only two games left. Derby's recent away form has been poor with three straight losses, but their consistent scoring in 18 of the last 20 league games underlines their attacking threat. QPR, positioned mid-table and safe from relegation, enter on a four-match winless streak, struggling to find momentum and missing key attacking players. The match promises a tense battle between Derby's urgency and QPR's desire to end their home campaign positively, with tactical control and early goals likely to be decisive.

BT4Y best bet

Derby to Win

  • Derby have scored in 18 of their last 20 league matches, showing strong attacking consistency.
  • QPR are winless in four matches and have lost their last two, indicating recent struggles.
  • Thirteen of Derby's 19 wins this season have been by a single goal, highlighting their pattern of tight victories.
  • Derby sits four points outside the playoff places with only two games remaining, increasing their urgency to win.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Derby to Win as a football-led selection despite the current price being short and offering negative . Derby's consistent scoring record and playoff motivation create a strong case for victory, even though recent away defeats temper . The model suggests reduced staking or waiting for better due to the price sensitivity. Improvements in team news, line-ups, or late data could enhance value. The limited recent away form is a caution, but Derby's attacking reliability and urgency underpin this pick.

Model Chance28.1% model chance vs 22.2% implied (+5.9 pts)
Neutral
Implied Market Chance28.1% model chance vs 22.2% implied (+5.9 pts)
Negative
Value Edge28.1% model chance vs 22.2% implied (+5.9 pts)
Negative
Confidence48
Neutral
match context Tactical ContextDerby's playoff urgency vs QPR's winless run
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Derby County's pressing need for points in the playoff chase should drive them to a narrow victory, leveraging their reliable goal-scoring form. QPR's current lack of momentum and defensive vulnerabilities make them vulnerable, especially given Derby's ability to grind out tight wins. This match is likely to be a tense, close contest where Derby's urgency and attacking consistency give them the edge.

Main risk

It’s a moment of opportunity for him—but also a test under pressure.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Derby County's urgency and scoring consistency

“Derby's season hinges on converting their consistent scoring into points despite recent away struggles; their playoff ambition is a powerful motivator that could tip this tight contest in their favor.”

Key Data Signals

Derby to Win evidence

Derby have scored in 18 of their last 20 league matches, showing strong attacking consistency.

QPR are winless in four matches and have lost their last two, indicating recent struggles.

Thirteen of Derby's 19 wins this season have been by a single goal, highlighting their pattern of tight victories.

Derby sits four points outside the playoff places with only two games remaining, increasing their urgency to win.

What To Watch In The Data

Derby to Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.3, with Derby's matches showing a 40% rate of Over 2.5 goals compared to QPR's 20%.
  • This suggests a moderate tempo with potential for goals, especially given Derby's attacking consistency and QPR's occasional defensive lapses, supporting a match with scoring chances but likely controlled by tactical caution.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

QPR0.8
Avg goals scored
Derby0.6
QPR1
Avg goals conceded
Derby1.6
QPR60%
BTTS rate
Derby60%
QPR20%
Over 2.5 goals
Derby40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 58% · edge +12.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 25%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2
Check odds @ 2
Derby have scored in 90% of their last 20 matches, showing reliable offensive output, while QPR's 60% BTTS rate and recent late goals suggest both teams can find the net. The pattern of Derby's narrow victories aligns with a likely close scoreline featuring goals at both ends, supporting a competitive and tense match with scoring opportunities.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

QPR

DDDDL
Last 50W 4D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 1L
09 Oct 2026A West Ham1-1
19 Sep 2026H Preston2-2
12 Sep 2026A West Brom1-1
09 Sep 2026A Charlton0-0
05 Sep 2026H Middlesbrough0-1

Derby

DDLLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 5L
10 Oct 2026H Wrexham1-1
19 Sep 2026A Burnley1-1
12 Sep 2026H Birmingham1-2
09 Sep 2026H West Brom0-1
05 Sep 2026A West Ham0-3
Market aligned with main pickDerby to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 22% · edge +5.9 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Derby Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Recent form data shows QPR with 4 points from their last matches but no wins in four, scoring 0.8 goals per game while conceding 1. Derby's form is weaker with 2 points and 0.6 goals scored per game, conceding 1.6, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities despite their scoring consistency. This form suggests Derby's urgency may overcome recent struggles, while QPR's momentum is limited.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Championship fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for QPR v Derbycorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickDerby to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 22% · edge +5.9 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Derby Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 28.1% for Derby to Win sits against roughly 22.2% implied by the current price (+5.9 pts). QPR have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 2 for Derby. Queens Park Rangers, playing their last home game of the campaign, welcome a Derby County side whose ambitions are hanging by a thread.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%QPR Over 2.5
40%Derby Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.3, with Derby's matches showing a 40% rate of Over 2.5 goals compared to QPR's 20%. This suggests a moderate tempo with potential for goals, especially given Derby's attacking consistency and QPR's occasional defensive lapses, supporting a match with scoring chances but likely controlled by tactical caution.

Loading deeper match data…