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Portsmouth crestPortsmouth
v
Derby crestDerby

Championship | Tue 01 Sep, 19:45

Portsmouth v Derby Stats

Data last updated: Mon 31 Aug 2026, 07:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Portsmouth and Derby meet in a Championship clash where both sides face defensive challenges but maintain attacking intent. Portsmouth have scored in every competitive match this season but conceded 11 goals in four games, highlighting defensive frailties. Derby, unbeaten in 12 league meetings with Portsmouth, have struggled offensively recently, failing to register a shot on target in their last match, yet their history and ability to score in previous games suggest they can breach Portsmouth's defense. Injuries on both sides add uncertainty, making this fixture a test of attacking resilience against defensive vulnerability.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Portsmouth have conceded 11 goals in four matches, conceding multiple goals in each game.
  • Derby have scored in three of their three league matches despite defensive issues.
  • Both teams have scored in 100% of Portsmouth's matches this season.
  • Derby failed to register a shot on target in their last game but have shown scoring ability previously.
  • Portsmouth's defensive weaknesses create opportunities for Derby to score despite their recent struggles.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The Both Teams to Score pick is supported by strong attacking consistency from Portsmouth, who have scored in all four matches, and Derby's ability to find the net in most games despite defensive lapses. Portsmouth's concession of 11 goals across four games creates clear scoring chances for Derby. The model sees value as the implied underestimate the likelihood of both teams scoring, given the defensive vulnerabilities and recent scoring patterns. No data limitations affect , making this a robust selection based on current form and tactical context.

Portsmouth scoring consistency100% matches scored
Strong positive
Derby scoring rate75% matches scored
Positive
Portsmouth defensive record11 goals conceded in 4 matches
Strong positive
Derby defensive issues7 goals conceded in 3 matches
Positive
Model confidence83% confidence
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both Teams to Score is a sensible pick given Portsmouth's consistent scoring and defensive vulnerabilities, combined with Derby's ability to score despite recent offensive struggles. The tactical setup suggests an open game with chances at both ends, making this market a logical choice supported by recent form and match dynamics.

Main risk

That gap between attacking output and pressure conceded is their most immediate concern.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score rationale

“Portsmouth's attacking output paired with Derby's defensive fragility creates a compelling case for both teams to find the net. Despite Derby's recent offensive lull, their history and ability to exploit defensive gaps make BTTS a strong tactical call.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Portsmouth have conceded 11 goals in four matches, conceding multiple goals in each game.

Derby have scored in three of their three league matches despite defensive issues.

Both teams have scored in 100% of Portsmouth's matches this season.

Derby failed to register a shot on target in their last game but have shown scoring ability previously.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.5, with a strong trend towards matches featuring multiple goals.
  • Both teams have consistently contributed to goal tallies in recent fixtures, suggesting a tempo and openness conducive to Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score outcomes in this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Portsmouth1.67
Avg goals scored
Derby1
Portsmouth2
Avg goals conceded
Derby2.33
Portsmouth100%
BTTS rate
Derby67%
Portsmouth100%
Over 2.5 goals
Derby100%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 26%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams have scored in every Portsmouth match this season, and Derby have found the net in most games despite conceding seven goals in three matches. The attacking consistency combined with defensive frailties on both sides supports a high likelihood of goals from both teams, reinforcing the BTTS selection.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Portsmouth to WinBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Portsmouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Derby Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The Both Teams to Score market is priced at 1.8, reflecting an implied probability of 55.6%, while the model estimates a 76% chance, indicating clear value. This price sensitivity highlights the defensive weaknesses on both sides and the consistent scoring patterns, making the market an attractive betting angle without requiring movement.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Portsmouth6.33
Avg corners for
Derby5.33
Portsmouth11
Avg total corners
Derby11.33
Portsmouth0.33
Avg yellow cards
Derby3.67
Portsmouth14.67
Avg shots
Derby12.67
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 64% · edge +5.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Portsmouth average 6.33 corners and 14.67 shots per game, while Derby average 5.33 corners and 12.67 shots, indicating active attacking play from both sides. Derby's higher average of 3.67 yellow cards per game suggests a physical approach that could lead to set-piece opportunities, further increasing goal chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Portsmouth

LWL
Last 51W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 2L
29 Aug 2026A Bristol City1-2
22 Aug 2026A Lincoln3-1
15 Aug 2026H QPR1-3

Derby

LDL
Last 50W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 2L
29 Aug 2026H Swansea0-3
22 Aug 2026H Cardiff2-2
15 Aug 2026A Charlton1-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 83% vs implied 74% · edge +9.9 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Portsmouth to WinBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Portsmouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Derby Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Derby to WinBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Portsmouth have scored 1.67 goals per game and conceded 2, maintaining a 100% BTTS rate this season. Derby average 1 goal scored and 2.33 conceded per game, with a 67% BTTS rate. This recent form data aligns with the Both Teams to Score pick, reflecting ongoing defensive vulnerabilities and offensive efforts from both teams.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Portsmouth wins
6Draws
3Derby wins
16 Mar 2026Portsmouth v Derby0-1
20 Dec 2025Derby v Portsmouth1-1
12 Apr 2025Portsmouth v Derby2-2
13 Dec 2024Derby v Portsmouth4-0
02 Apr 2024Portsmouth v Derby2-2
16 Sep 2023Derby v Portsmouth1-1
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Portsmouth to WinBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Derby to WinBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Derby are unbeaten in their last 12 league meetings with Portsmouth, indicating a historical edge. However, recent form and defensive frailties on both sides diminish the weight of this record. The head-to-head data provides background context but is less influential than current tactical and form factors supporting both teams scoring.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Championship

Portsmouth3
Played
Derby3
Portsmouth1.7
Avg goals for
Derby1
Portsmouth2
Avg goals against
Derby2.3
Portsmouth0
Clean sheets
Derby0
Best odds for this sectionPortsmouth to WinBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 46% · edge +12.6 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Portsmouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Derby Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Derby to WinBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Portsmouth's season-long defensive record shows 11 goals conceded in four matches, undermining their scoring efforts. Derby's seven goals conceded in three matches further highlight defensive issues. Both teams' scoring consistency combined with defensive lapses supports the expectation of goals at both ends in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
15Portsmouth33102-1
21Derby13012-4
Portsmouth sit 15th with three points, while Derby are 21st with one point, reflecting early season struggles. The standings underline the need for both teams to improve results, likely encouraging attacking play to secure points, which supports the Both Teams to Score market as both sides seek goals to change their fortunes.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Portsmouth Over 2.5
100%Derby Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.5, with a strong trend towards matches featuring multiple goals. Both teams have consistently contributed to goal tallies in recent fixtures, suggesting a tempo and openness conducive to Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score outcomes in this match.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Portsmouth v Derby prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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