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Portland Timbers crestPortland Timbers
v
St. Louis City crestSt. Louis City

Major League Soccer | Thu 10 Sep, 03:30

Portland Timbers v St. Louis City Stats

Data last updated: Thu 10 Sep 2026, 16:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Portland Timbers host St. Louis City in a Major League Soccer clash where attacking intent and recent goal-scoring form set the stage for an open encounter. Both teams have shown offensive prowess, with St. Louis City sitting higher in the standings and boasting a slightly better defensive record. The Timbers have been involved in high-scoring matches recently, while St. Louis City’s dynamic forward line and midfield creativity suggest a lively contest. Tactical openness and mutual goal threat create an expectation of multiple goals in this fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Both teams have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals this season.
  • Portland Timbers average 2.2 goals scored and 2 conceded per game, indicating open play.
  • Louis City averages 2.4 goals scored and concedes 1.4, showing attacking efficiency and moderate defense.
  • Recent head-to-head matches average 3.43 goals, supporting a high-scoring game.
  • Both teams average around 10 shots per game with decent shots on target, reflecting offensive activity.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a positive value bet with a 58% chance, significantly above the 45.5% implied by current . Both Portland Timbers and St. Louis City consistently produce high-scoring games, with strong over 2.5 goals rates and prolific attacking stats. The head-to-head average goals further reinforce the likelihood of a goal-rich match. The data quality is solid for both teams, supporting in the model’s projection for this fixture.

Model Chance58%
Strong positive
Implied Chance45.5%
Positive
Value Edge12.5%
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 Rate80% both teams
Strong positive
H2H Average Goals3.43 goals
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both Portland Timbers and St. Louis City have shown strong offensive capabilities this season. The Timbers’ willingness to commit players forward combined with St. Louis City’s efficient attack suggests multiple goals are likely. The recent scoring trends and head-to-head history support a high-scoring fixture, making Over 3.5 Goals a tactically and statistically sound choice.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking dynamics and goal potential

“This matchup features two teams with aggressive attacking styles and high shot volumes, setting the stage for a potentially goal-laden contest. The consistent over 2.5 goals rates and strong offensive metrics underline the likelihood of a lively, open game.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals this season.

Portland Timbers average 2.2 goals scored and 2 conceded per game, indicating open play.

Louis City averages 2.4 goals scored and concedes 1.4, showing attacking efficiency and moderate defense.

Recent head-to-head matches average 3.43 goals, supporting a high-scoring game.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last seven head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 3.43, indicating a history of open, high-scoring matches.
  • Both teams’ recent over 2.5 goals rates at 80% further suggest a fast tempo and attacking openness likely to produce multiple goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Portland Timbers2.2
Avg goals scored
St. Louis City2.4
Portland Timbers2
Avg goals conceded
St. Louis City1.4
Portland Timbers100%
BTTS rate
St. Louis City100%
Portland Timbers80%
Over 2.5 goals
St. Louis City80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 50% · edge +8 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Louis City have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals and a 100% BTTS rate, highlighting consistent goal contributions from both sides. The head-to-head average of 3.43 goals further supports the expectation of multiple goals and both teams scoring in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionSt. Louis City Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
St. Louis City to WinBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Portland Timbers Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced attractively with implying a 45.5% chance, while the model estimates a 58% probability, indicating clear value. This positive reflects the strong attacking trends and recent goal outputs from both teams. The price is not overly short, allowing for a confident stake without cautionary warnings.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Portland Timbers3.33
Avg corners for
St. Louis City3.5
Portland Timbers7.67
Avg total corners
St. Louis City8.75
Portland Timbers1.33
Avg yellow cards
St. Louis City2.25
Portland Timbers11.67
Avg shots
St. Louis City10
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 52% · edge +1.9 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Both teams average around 3 corners per game, reflecting moderate attacking pressure and set-piece opportunities. Shot volumes near 10 per game with solid shots on target indicate active offensive play. The card averages suggest a moderately physical game, which may lead to fouls and set-piece chances contributing to goal opportunities.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Portland Timbers

WLDWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
06 Sep 2026H Minnesota United FC5-4
30 Aug 2026H Austin1-2
23 Aug 2026A Los Angeles FC1-1
20 Aug 2026H San Diego3-1
16 Aug 2026A Chicago Fire1-2

St. Louis City

WDWDW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 3D 0L
06 Sep 2026A Vancouver Whitecaps3-1
31 Aug 2026H FC Dallas3-3
23 Aug 2026H Houston Dynamo2-1
20 Aug 2026A Sporting Kansas City1-1
16 Aug 2026A San Jose Earthquakes3-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 80% vs implied 65% · edge +15 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
St. Louis City Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
St. Louis City to WinBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Portland Timbers Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Portland Timbers to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Recent form data shows both teams scoring frequently with Portland Timbers averaging 2.2 goals and St. Louis City 2.4 goals per game. Both teams maintain an 80% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals, confirming a trend of high-scoring encounters. This form supports the likelihood of a goal-rich match in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Portland Timbers wins
2Draws
3St. Louis City wins
14 Jul 2025St. Louis City v Portland Timbers2-1
09 Jun 2025Portland Timbers v St. Louis City2-1
25 Aug 2024Portland Timbers v St. Louis City4-4
10 Aug 2024St. Louis City v Portland Timbers3-1
09 Jun 2024St. Louis City v Portland Timbers0-0
30 Apr 2023St. Louis City v Portland Timbers1-2
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 78% vs implied 69% · edge +8.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
St. Louis City to WinBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Portland Timbers to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
The seven previous meetings between Portland Timbers and St. Louis City have averaged 3.43 goals per game, supporting a trend of high-scoring encounters. While the sample size is moderate, the consistent goal output in these fixtures aligns with the expectation of an open game with multiple goals.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Major League Soccer

Portland Timbers24
Played
St. Louis City24
Portland Timbers1.9
Avg goals for
St. Louis City1.6
Portland Timbers1.9
Avg goals against
St. Louis City1.4
Portland Timbers1
Clean sheets
St. Louis City3
Best odds for this sectionSt. Louis City Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
St. Louis City to WinBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Portland Timbers Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Portland Timbers to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Season-long statistics reveal both teams have potent attacks and relatively porous defenses, with Portland conceding 2 goals per game and St. The high goals-for numbers and over 2.5 goals rates for both teams reinforce the expectation of multiple goals in this match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6St. Louis City382410865
8Portland Timbers322495101
Louis City ranks 5th and Portland Timbers 8th in the Major League Soccer standings, with St. Louis holding a points advantage. While standings provide background, the attacking styles and goal-scoring trends of both teams are more indicative of the match’s high-scoring potential than table position.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Portland Timbers Over 2.5
80%St. Louis City Over 2.5
3.43H2H avg goals
Over the last seven head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 3.43, indicating a history of open, high-scoring matches. Both teams’ recent over 2.5 goals rates at 80% further suggest a fast tempo and attacking openness likely to produce multiple goals in this fixture.

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