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Port Vale crestPort Vale
v
Crewe crestCrewe

League Two | Sat 29 Aug, 12:30

Port Vale v Crewe Stats

Data last updated: Fri 28 Aug 2026, 08:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This League Two clash features Crewe, currently second in the table with six points, visiting Port Vale, who sit 20th with just one point. Crewe have shown solid defensive resilience, keeping clean sheets so far, while Port Vale have struggled to score and conceded more frequently. The visitors' recent form and higher league standing suggest they will look to control the game tactically and exploit Port Vale's defensive vulnerabilities. The match promises a tactical battle with Crewe aiming to maintain momentum and Port Vale seeking their first win.

BT4Y best bet

Crewe to Win

  • Crewe sit 2nd in League Two with 6 points; Port Vale are 20th with 1 point
  • Crewe have kept clean sheets so far; Port Vale have conceded 1.5 goals per game
  • Crewe average 12 shots and 3.5 shots on target per match, showing attacking threat
  • Port Vale have a 50% BTTS rate but no Over 2.5 goals in recent matches
  • Crewe have a strong away record and better recent form than Port Vale

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Crewe's to win stands at 70%, significantly higher than the implied market chance of 31.3%, indicating strong value. Their defensive solidity, reflected in zero goals conceded on average, combined with effective attacking output averaging 1 goal per game, underpins this . Port Vale's struggles in attack and defense further tilt the balance. The model recognizes Crewe's consistent form and superior league position as key factors, making the away win a compelling selection. No price warnings apply, supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance31.3%
Strong positive
Crewe Defensive Record0 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Port Vale Offensive Struggles0.5 goals scored per game
Negative
Recent Form PointsCrewe 6 vs Port Vale 1
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Crewe's tactical discipline and recent unbeaten run make them the likely winners in this fixture. Their defensive strength and ability to create quality chances contrast with Port Vale's current struggles, providing a solid data-backed foundation for backing Crewe to win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Crewe's blend of defensive resilience and efficient attacking patterns positions them well to secure victory against a Port Vale side still searching for form.”

Key Data Signals

Crewe to Win evidence

Crewe sit 2nd in League Two with 6 points; Port Vale are 20th with 1 point

Crewe have kept clean sheets so far; Port Vale have conceded 1.5 goals per game

Crewe average 12 shots and 3.5 shots on target per match, showing attacking threat

Port Vale have a 50% BTTS rate but no Over 2.5 goals in recent matches

What To Watch In The Data

Crewe to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 1.8, indicating generally low-scoring encounters.
  • Recent trends suggest a cautious tempo with limited goal-scoring opportunities, aligning with the expected tight match dynamics.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Port Vale0.5
Avg goals scored
Crewe1
Port Vale1.5
Avg goals conceded
Crewe0
Port Vale50%
BTTS rate
Crewe0%
Port Vale0%
Over 2.5 goals
Crewe0%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 53% · edge +13.4 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Goals and BTTS trends show Port Vale have a 50% BTTS rate but low scoring overall, while Crewe have kept clean sheets and average 1 goal per game. This suggests a controlled game with limited goals and a lower likelihood of both teams scoring.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Port Vale

DL
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
22 Aug 2026H Tranmere1-1
15 Aug 2026A Oldham0-2

Crewe

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
22 Aug 2026H Northampton1-0
15 Aug 2026A Crawley Town1-0
Market aligned with main pickCrewe to WinBet365 guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
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Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Crewe Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Crewe's recent form is strong with 6 points from their opening matches and no goals conceded, contrasting with Port Vale's single point and 1.5 goals conceded per game. This form disparity supports Crewe's winning chances.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Crewe622002
20Port Vale12011-2
The league table positions reinforce the form gap, with Crewe second and pushing for promotion, while Port Vale languish near the relegation zone. This standing adds pressure on Port Vale and for Crewe.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCrewe to WinBet365 guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
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Crewe Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The current for Crewe to win offer strong value compared to the model's 70% win probability. The market underestimates Crewe's chances, likely due to Port Vale's home status, but the data supports backing the away side with .
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Port Vale5
Avg corners for
Crewe9
Port Vale7
Avg total corners
Crewe14
Port Vale3
Avg yellow cards
Crewe3
Port Vale11
Avg shots
Crewe12
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 56% vs implied 55% · edge +1.2 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Crewe average 9 corners and 3.5 shots on target per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure. Both teams have similar yellow card averages, suggesting a balanced disciplinary profile without excessive fouling likely to disrupt flow.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6Port Vale wins
3Draws
1Crewe wins
29 Mar 2025Crewe v Port Vale0-1
25 Nov 2024Port Vale v Crewe1-1
05 Sep 2023Port Vale v Crewe1-0
29 Aug 2023Port Vale v Crewe0-0
02 Nov 2019Crewe v Port Vale0-1
06 Apr 2019Port Vale v Crewe1-0
Market aligned with main pickCrewe to WinBet365 guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The head-to-head record over ten matches shows an average of 1.8 goals per game, reflecting tight contests. While not overwhelmingly favoring Crewe, the data suggests matches tend to be low scoring, emphasizing defensive discipline and tactical caution.
Season team stats

League Two

Port Vale2
Played
Crewe2
Port Vale0.5
Avg goals for
Crewe1
Port Vale1.5
Avg goals against
Crewe0
Port Vale0
Clean sheets
Crewe2
Market aligned with main pickCrewe to WinBet365 guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
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Crewe Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Season stats underline Crewe's defensive strength, conceding no goals on average, and a steady attack scoring 1 goal per game. Port Vale's lower scoring and higher concession rates reflect ongoing challenges in both phases of play.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Port Vale Over 2.5
0%Crewe Over 2.5
1.8H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 1.8, indicating generally low-scoring encounters. Recent trends suggest a cautious tempo with limited goal-scoring opportunities, aligning with the expected tight match dynamics.

Related football research

Fixture links

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