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Gillingham crestGillingham
v
Northampton crestNorthampton

League Two | Sat 29 Aug, 15:00

Gillingham v Northampton Stats

Data last updated: Fri 28 Aug 2026, 08:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gillingham and Northampton meet in a League Two fixture where both teams have started the season cautiously, each with just one point and low goal returns. Gillingham's defense has conceded more, while Northampton has been more conservative. The tactical setup suggests a battle for midfield control with both sides likely to push wide to create chances. Given the early season form and the teams' tendency to generate set-piece opportunities, this match could see sustained pressure and frequent corner situations, despite the low scoring so far.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Model estimates a 69% chance for Over 9.5 Corners, well above the market implied 56%.
  • Gillingham averages 4 corners per game, contributing significantly to corner volume.
  • Northampton's attacking style and pressure likely increase corner opportunities despite missing exact corner data.
  • Recent matches show Gillingham's defensive vulnerability leading to more attacking phases and corners.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 9.5 Corners with a 69% probability, reflecting both teams' attacking tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities. Gillingham's average of 4 corners per game and Northampton's aggressive attacking players like S. Hoskins, who generates many shots, suggest a high volume of set-piece situations. The price offers positive value with a 12.8% edge, making this a solid corner market pick. No price warnings apply, and data quality is sufficient to support this selection.

Model Chance69%
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance56.2%
Strong positive
Value Edge12.8%
Strong positive
Gillingham Avg Corners4 per game
Positive
Northampton Attacking PressureHigh shot volume from key players
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match with sustained wide play and attacking pressure from both sides, leading to numerous corner situations. Gillingham's defensive lapses and Northampton's active attackers like S. Hoskins increase the likelihood of frequent corners, making Over 9.5 Corners a tactically and statistically sound choice for this fixture.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market

“The corner market stands out here due to Gillingham's vulnerability at the back and Northampton's high shot volume, especially from Hoskins, which often translates into corners. This match should see plenty of set-piece action along the flanks.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Model estimates a 69% chance for Over 9.5 Corners, well above the market implied 56%.

Gillingham averages 4 corners per game, contributing significantly to corner volume.

Northampton's attacking style and pressure likely increase corner opportunities despite missing exact corner data.

Recent matches show Gillingham's defensive vulnerability leading to more attacking phases and corners.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.7, indicating moderate scoring.
  • While this suggests a balanced contest, the tempo and attacking patterns from recent matches imply frequent wide attacks and defensive clearances, which typically generate corners, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals trend panel as a context for attacking intent.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gillingham0
Avg goals scored
Northampton0
Gillingham1.5
Avg goals conceded
Northampton0.5
Gillingham0%
BTTS rate
Northampton0%
Gillingham50%
Over 2.5 goals
Northampton0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 32%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams have low goal-scoring records and no BTTS in recent form, indicating a tight match. However, the low scoring does not diminish corner potential, as defensive pressure and attacking attempts from wide areas often generate corners even in low-scoring games.
Season team stats

League Two

Gillingham2
Played
Northampton2
Gillingham0
Avg goals for
Northampton0
Gillingham1.5
Avg goals against
Northampton0.5
Gillingham1
Clean sheets
Northampton1
Best odds for this sectionNorthampton to WinBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 37% · edge +9 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Load more odds for this section
Northampton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Gillingham to WinBetMGM guide price · model 38%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Gillingham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Season statistics highlight Gillingham's average of 4 corners per game, reflecting their attacking width and Northampton's offensive players' high shot rates, which often result in corners. Defensive vulnerabilities on both sides contribute to more attacking phases and set-piece opportunities, supporting the Over 9.5 Corners selection.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gillingham

DL
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
22 Aug 2026A Fleetwood Town0-0
15 Aug 2026H Walsall0-3

Northampton

LD
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
22 Aug 2026A Crewe0-1
15 Aug 2026H Swindon Town0-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 67% · edge +7.8 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Northampton to WinBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Northampton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Gillingham to WinBetMGM guide price · model 38%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Gillingham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Recent form shows Gillingham conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game and generating 4 corners per match, while Northampton has a more defensive record but active attackers. Both teams have low scoring rates but maintain attacking pressure, supporting a higher corner count through sustained wide play and defensive clearances.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 69% · edge +5.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Northampton to WinBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Northampton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Gillingham to WinBetMGM guide price · model 38%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Gillingham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
2
Check odds @ 2
The Over 9.5 Corners market is priced attractively with a 1.78 reflecting a 56.2% implied chance, while the model suggests a 69% probability. This 12.8% indicates the market underestimates the corner volume, making this a positive-value bet with no price warnings.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Gillingham4
Avg corners for
Northampton8
Gillingham13.5
Avg total corners
Northampton12
Gillingham3
Avg yellow cards
Northampton0.5
Gillingham13
Avg shots
Northampton13
Market aligned with main pickOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 56% · edge +12.8 pts
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Gillingham averages 4 corners per game, and Northampton's aggressive attacking players generate high shot volumes, particularly S. Hoskins with 20.77 shots per 90 minutes. This attacking pressure combined with fouling tendencies suggests a match rich in corners and cards, driven by territorial battles and set-piece opportunities.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Gillingham wins
2Draws
4Northampton wins
10 Apr 2023Northampton v Gillingham2-1
12 Nov 2022Gillingham v Northampton0-2
24 Apr 2021Gillingham v Northampton2-2
29 Dec 2020Northampton v Gillingham3-1
13 Feb 2018Northampton v Gillingham1-2
21 Oct 2017Gillingham v Northampton1-2
Best odds for this sectionNorthampton to WinBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 37% · edge +9 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Load more odds for this section
Gillingham to WinBetMGM guide price · model 38%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 32%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows an average of 2.7 goals per game, indicating competitive encounters. While goal volume is moderate, the matches have featured sustained attacking phases and set-piece situations, which align with the expectation of a high corner count in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
18Northampton12011-1
21Gillingham12011-3
Both teams sit near the lower mid-table with just one point each, increasing the incentive to press forward and create chances. This competitive pressure often leads to more attacking plays and corners as teams seek to break deadlocks early in the season.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Gillingham Over 2.5
0%Northampton Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.7, indicating moderate scoring. While this suggests a balanced contest, the tempo and attacking patterns from recent matches imply frequent wide attacks and defensive clearances, which typically generate corners, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals trend panel as a context for attacking intent.

Related football research

Fixture links

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