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Peterborough crestPeterborough
v
Stevenage crestStevenage

League One | Tue 01 Sep, 19:45

Peterborough v Stevenage Stats

Data last updated: Mon 31 Aug 2026, 07:43 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Tuesday night's League One clash at the Lamex Stadium features Stevenage, enduring a nine-match home winless streak with five consecutive draws, against Peterborough, who bring a slick, possession-based style under Luke Williams. Stevenage rely on aerial duels and direct play but struggle to convert chances, while Peterborough's superior 55.2% possession and 80.6% pass accuracy aim to control the midfield and exploit Stevenage's defensive vulnerabilities. Both teams are close in the table, making this a pivotal fixture with high stakes for a top-six push. The tactical contrast and recent form set up a tight contest with a likely low-scoring outcome.

BT4Y match pick

Peterborough Draw No Bet

  • Stevenage winless in nine home matches, with five straight draws
  • Peterborough average 55.2% possession and 80.6% pass accuracy
  • Stevenage have scored one or fewer goals in seven consecutive games
  • Peterborough's recent away win at Wycombe shows their ability to perform under pressure
  • Draw No Bet covers Stevenage's frequent stalemates and Peterborough's technical edge

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model supports Peterborough Draw No Bet with a 48.9% chance, closely aligned with the implied of 52.6%, indicating a slightly short price. Peterborough's superior possession and passing metrics suggest control over the match tempo, while Stevenage's prolonged goal drought and home struggles reduce their win probability. The Draw No Bet market mitigates risk given Stevenage's frequent draws, making this a cautious but sensible selection. Reduced stake is advised due to the slight price sensitivity, and the model notes no significant data limitations affecting .

Possession and Passing ControlPeterborough's 55.2% possession and 80.6% pass accuracy
Strong positive
Stevenage Home FormNine-match winless streak with five draws
Negative
Goal Scoring TrendsStevenage scored ≤1 goal in seven straight games
Negative
Price SensitivityImplied chance (52.6%) exceeds model chance (48.9%)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Peterborough's technical superiority and control in midfield make them the favored side to avoid defeat, especially given Stevenage's ongoing scoring struggles at home. The Draw No Bet selection provides a prudent balance between Peterborough's attacking potential and Stevenage's stubborn defense, reflecting both tactical and statistical insights.

Main risk

Stevenage come in with grit but not enough punch.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and statistical analysis

“Peterborough's possession control and passing precision should allow them to dictate play and create the clearest chances, while Stevenage's reliance on aerial duels and set pieces may not suffice to break their scoring drought at home.”

Key Data Signals

Peterborough Draw No Bet evidence

Stevenage winless in nine home matches, with five straight draws

Peterborough average 55.2% possession and 80.6% pass accuracy

Stevenage have scored one or fewer goals in seven consecutive games

Peterborough's recent away win at Wycombe shows their ability to perform under pressure

What To Watch In The Data

Peterborough Draw No Bet notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.3, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Both teams' recent matches show a 67% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, but the tactical context and scoring droughts suggest this match may fall below that threshold.
  • The trend points to a balanced tempo with potential for tight defensive play and limited high-quality chances.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Peterborough0.67
Avg goals scored
Stevenage1.33
Peterborough2.33
Avg goals conceded
Stevenage1.67
Peterborough33%
BTTS rate
Stevenage100%
Peterborough67%
Over 2.5 goals
Stevenage67%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The match is expected to be low scoring, supported by Stevenage's seven-game streak of scoring one or fewer goals and Peterborough's controlled possession limiting opponent chances. The BTTS No and Under 3.5 Goals context aligns with tactical patterns favoring defensive compactness and cautious attacking, making a tight scoreline probable.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPeterborough Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 49% vs implied 50% · edge -1.1 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Peterborough to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
The Peterborough Draw No Bet market is priced slightly short with of 1.9, reflecting the high frequency of Stevenage draws and Peterborough's technical edge. The implied probability marginally exceeds the model's chance, suggesting cautious staking. Improved or a clearer tactical advantage would strengthen value, but the market fairly balances risk and reward given the teams' recent form.

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Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Peterborough4.67
Avg corners for
Stevenage5
Peterborough9
Avg total corners
Stevenage10.67
Peterborough1.67
Avg yellow cards
Stevenage0.33
Peterborough12.33
Avg shots
Stevenage9.33
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 53% · edge +9.3 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Stevenage's physical style generates set-piece opportunities, but their low shot volume contrasts with Peterborough's higher average shots and shots on target. Discipline is moderate, with Peterborough averaging more yellow cards than Stevenage, indicating a competitive but controlled match environment. Territory and pressure likely favor Peterborough, influencing shot and corner counts.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Peterborough

LWL
Last 51W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 2L
29 Aug 2026A Blackpool0-4
22 Aug 2026H Mansfield Town2-1
15 Aug 2026A Bradford0-2

Stevenage

DLD
Last 50W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 1L
29 Aug 2026H Doncaster2-2
22 Aug 2026H Oxford United1-2
15 Aug 2026A Burton Albion1-1
Market aligned with main pickPeterborough Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 49% vs implied 50% · edge -1.1 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Peterborough to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Peterborough's recent form shows a modest points return with a 0.67 goals per game average but a higher goals conceded rate, reflecting defensive vulnerabilities. Stevenage's home form is poor, with only two points from recent matches and a higher goals against average, underscoring their scoring difficulties and defensive challenges. This form supports Peterborough's edge in avoiding defeat.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Peterborough wins
3Draws
4Stevenage wins
27 Jan 2026Stevenage v Peterborough1-0
25 Nov 2025Peterborough v Stevenage0-1
15 Feb 2025Stevenage v Peterborough1-1
08 Oct 2024Peterborough v Stevenage2-0
05 Oct 2024Peterborough v Stevenage2-1
13 Mar 2024Peterborough v Stevenage3-1
Market aligned with main pickPeterborough to WinBet365 guide price · Model 39% vs implied 39% · edge +0.4 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The ten previous encounters average 2.3 goals per game, reflecting moderately open contests historically. However, recent form and tactical setups suggest a more cautious approach this time, with Stevenage's home struggles and Peterborough's possession focus diminishing the likelihood of a high-scoring game. The head-to-head data provides background but is secondary to current team dynamics.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

League One

Peterborough3
Played
Stevenage3
Peterborough0.7
Avg goals for
Stevenage1.3
Peterborough2.3
Avg goals against
Stevenage1.7
Peterborough0
Clean sheets
Stevenage0
Market aligned with main pickPeterborough Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 49% vs implied 50% · edge -1.1 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Peterborough to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Season-long statistics reveal Peterborough's stronger possession and passing accuracy, enabling control over matches. Stevenage's aerial control contrasts with their low scoring output, indicating reliance on physical play rather than sustained attacking pressure. These profiles suggest Peterborough's style is better suited to breaking down Stevenage's defense and managing the game tempo.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
18Peterborough33102-5
19Stevenage23021-1
Both teams sit mid-table with close points totals, making this fixture crucial for a push towards playoff positions. The narrow gap intensifies the stakes, but the standings offer limited predictive power beyond highlighting the match's competitive importance and potential for cautious tactics.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

67%Peterborough Over 2.5
67%Stevenage Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.3, indicating moderate scoring. Both teams' recent matches show a 67% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, but the tactical context and scoring droughts suggest this match may fall below that threshold. The trend points to a balanced tempo with potential for tight defensive play and limited high-quality chances.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Peterborough v Stevenage prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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