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Parma crestParma
v
Cagliari crestCagliari

Serie A | Sat 22 Aug, 19:45

Parma v Cagliari Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 11:15 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Parma face Cagliari in Serie A on Sat 22 Aug, 19:45. Only 16 Parma goals came across 19 home league fixtures, underlining why playing at the Tardini did not automatically translate into attacking control.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Under 2

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 65%, above the 50% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 8/15, Under 2 implies roughly 65%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 50%.
  • Cautious bettors often look at Double Chance (Cagliari or Draw) or Under 3.5 Goals.
Price warning

Under 2 is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 65% while the model sits nearer 50% (-15.3 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 3.5 Goals shows a +13.9 pts edge at 4.5.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 50% for Under 2 sits against roughly 65% implied by the current price. Cautious bettors often look at Double Chance (Cagliari or Draw) or Under 3.5 Goals.

Model chance vs price50% model chance against roughly 65% implied
Negative
Cautious bettors often look at Double Chance (Cagliari.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge -15.3 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because low scoring history supports the Under 2.5 Goals market choice. For Parma, the concern is obvious.

Main risk

For Parma, the concern is obvious.

Key Data Signals

Under 2 evidence

Low scoring history supports the Under 2.5 Goals market choice.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2 notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Parma wins
4Draws
5Cagliari wins
27 Feb 2026Parma v Cagliari1-1
13 Sep 2025Cagliari v Parma2-0
09 Feb 2025Cagliari v Parma2-1
30 Sep 2024Parma v Cagliari2-3
03 Jun 2023Parma v Cagliari0-0
30 May 2023Cagliari v Parma3-2
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 40% · edge +14.1 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
Parma to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Cagliari to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 31%
3
Check odds @ 3
The head-to-head sample gives context for Over 2.5 Goals, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Serie A analysisParma v Cagliari predictionplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Parma

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Parma yet.

Cagliari

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Cagliari yet.

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 75% · edge -5 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
Parma Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Parma to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Cagliari to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 31%
3
Check odds @ 3
Cagliari Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Parma-
Avg goals scored
Cagliari-
Parma-
Avg goals conceded
Cagliari-
Parma-
BTTS rate
Cagliari-
Parma-
Over 2.5 goals
Cagliari-
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 50% vs implied 65% · edge -15.5 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 36%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Under 2.5 Goals does not fully support the current price; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 40% · edge +14.1 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Parma Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Parma to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Cagliari to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Parma4
Played
Cagliari4
Parma0.5
Avg goals for
Cagliari1
Parma1.5
Avg goals against
Cagliari0.5
Parma0
Clean sheets
Cagliari2
Best odds for this sectionParma Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 50% vs implied 50% · edge +0.1 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Parma to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Cagliari to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Cagliari Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Season data supports Parma Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Cagliari943012
17Parma14013-4
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Parma Over 2.5
-Cagliari Over 2.5
2.9H2H avg goals
Cautious bettors often look at Double Chance (Cagliari or Draw) or Under 3.5 Goals.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Parma v Cagliari prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Competition and hubs

Serie A hubmore Serie A analysisParma v Cagliari predictionplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre