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Paris Saint Germain crestParis Saint Germain
v
Aston Villa crestAston Villa

UEFA Super Cup | Wed 12 Aug, 20:00

Paris Saint Germain v Aston Villa Stats

Data last updated: Mon 24 Aug 2026, 09:08 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Paris Saint Germain face Aston Villa in UEFA Super Cup on Wed 12 Aug, 20:00. Unai Emery’s side step into this fixture carrying immense positive momentum, having put together an unbeaten five-match sequence that saw them claim four victories and one draw while netting 15 goals in the process.

BT4Y best bet

Of our Bet Builder zeroes in on Aston Villa to avoid defeat in normal time against PSG at Parc des Princes

  • At 4.75, Of our Bet Builder zeroes in on Aston Villa to avoid defeat in normal time against PSG at Parc des Princes implies roughly 21%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 36%.
  • Villa’s high-energy transitions will place severe stress on a PSG backline that conceded 57 goals across 55 matches this season.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 36% for Of our Bet Builder zeroes in on Aston Villa to avoid defeat in normal time against PSG at Parc des Princes sits against roughly 21% implied by the current price. Villa’s high-energy transitions will place severe stress on a PSG backline that conceded 57 goals across 55 matches this season.

Model chance vs price36% model chance against roughly 21% implied
Strong positive
Villa’s high-energy transitions will place severe stress on a.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +15 pts
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Aston Villa Win is the preferred angle because villa’s high-energy transitions will place severe stress on a PSG backline that conceded that scoring level across 55 matches this season. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Of our Bet Builder zeroes in on Aston Villa to avoid defeat in normal time against PSG at Parc des Princes evidence

Villa’s high-energy transitions will place severe stress on a PSG backline that conceded 57 goals across 55 matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Of our Bet Builder zeroes in on Aston Villa to avoid defeat in normal time against PSG at Parc des Princes notes

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAston Villa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 36% vs implied 21% · edge +15 pts
    4.75
    Check odds @ 4.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Aston Villa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Aston Villa to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Paris Saint Germain-
    Avg goals scored
    Aston Villa-
    Paris Saint Germain-
    Avg goals conceded
    Aston Villa-
    Paris Saint Germain-
    BTTS rate
    Aston Villa-
    Paris Saint Germain-
    Over 2.5 goals
    Aston Villa-
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 80% · edge -3.6 pts
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 46%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 1.5 Goals does not fully support the current price; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Paris Saint Germain

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Paris Saint Germain yet.

    Aston Villa

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Aston Villa yet.

    Market aligned with main pickAston Villa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 36% vs implied 21% · edge +15 pts
    4.75
    Check odds @ 4.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 64%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Aston Villa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Paris Saint Germain wins
    0Draws
    1Aston Villa wins
    15 Apr 2025Aston Villa v Paris Saint Germain3-2
    09 Apr 2025Paris Saint Germain v Aston Villa3-1
    Market aligned with main pickAston Villa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 36% vs implied 21% · edge +15 pts
    4.75
    Check odds @ 4.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Aston Villa to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    UEFA Super Cup

    Paris Saint Germain1
    Played
    Aston Villa1
    Paris Saint Germain2
    Avg goals for
    Aston Villa1
    Paris Saint Germain1
    Avg goals against
    Aston Villa2
    Paris Saint Germain0
    Clean sheets
    Aston Villa0
    Market aligned with main pickAston Villa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 36% vs implied 21% · edge +15 pts
    4.75
    Check odds @ 4.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Aston Villa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Season data supports Aston Villa to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    -Paris Saint Germain Over 2.5
    -Aston Villa Over 2.5
    4.5H2H avg goals
    Villa’s high-energy transitions will place severe stress on a PSG backline that conceded 57 goals across 55 matches this season.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Paris Saint Germain v Aston Villa prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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