Palmeiras

LDU de Quito

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Wed 09 Sep, 23:00

Palmeiras v LDU de Quito Stats

Data last updated: Tue 08 Sep 2026, 08:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Palmeiras and LDU de Quito face off in a crucial CONMEBOL Libertadores clash where both teams lead their group standings, separated by just one point. Palmeiras have shown solid defensive form conceding only 0.6 goals per game recently, while LDU de Quito have a slightly higher concession rate but maintain a competitive attack. Both sides have demonstrated resilience and tactical discipline, setting up a balanced contest with potential for goals at both ends. The match stakes are high, with group leadership on the line, adding intensity and urgency to the encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

Palmeiras and LDU de Quito both average 40% BTTS rate recently, indicating balanced attacking and defensive output.
Palmeiras average 16.8 shots per game with 5.6 on target, showing strong offensive pressure.
LDU de Quito maintain a solid attack with 12.75 shots per game and 3.75 on target.
Head-to-head matches have averaged 3.5 goals, suggesting open games with scoring from both sides.
Both teams have low over 2.5 goals rates (20%), highlighting moderate scoring games but consistent goal threats.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Both Teams to Score with a 56.7% chance, supported by balanced recent form where both Palmeiras and LDU de Quito score and concede regularly. Despite a moderate over 2.5 goals rate, the average goals in head-to-head matches and consistent shot volumes from both sides underpin the likelihood of goals at both ends. The price offers positive value with an 18.5% edge, reflecting a solid football read for BTTS without price sensitivity. Player data further supports attacking threats from key midfielders and forwards on both teams.

Model Chance56.7%

Strong positive

Implied Market Chance38.2%

Strong positive

Recent BTTS Rate40% both teams

Positive

Head-to-Head Average Goals3.5 goals per match

Positive

Shot VolumePalmeiras 16.8, LDU 12.75 per game

Positive

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Player roles and tactical balance

“This matchup features two offensively capable teams with midfielders and forwards who consistently create chances, making Both Teams to Score a compelling angle given the tactical balance and recent scoring trends.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Palmeiras and LDU de Quito both average 40% BTTS rate recently, indicating balanced attacking and defensive output.

Palmeiras average 16.8 shots per game with 5.6 on target, showing strong offensive pressure.

LDU de Quito maintain a solid attack with 12.75 shots per game and 3.75 on target.

Head-to-head matches have averaged 3.5 goals, suggesting open games with scoring from both sides.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

Over the last two head-to-head matches, an average of 3.5 goals were scored, indicating open and attacking games.
Despite both teams having only a 20% over 2.5 goals rate recently, the high average goals in direct encounters suggest a tempo and style conducive to multiple goals and both teams scoring in this fixture.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Palmeiras5.2

Avg corners for

LDU de Quito4.2

Palmeiras10.6

Avg total corners

LDU de Quito10.4

Palmeiras1.2

Avg yellow cards

LDU de Quito2

Palmeiras16.8

Avg shots

LDU de Quito13.6

Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.

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Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price

1.83

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Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 52%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Palmeiras average 5.2 corners and 16.8 shots per game, while LDU de Quito average 4 corners and 12.75 shots, indicating active offensive pressure from both sides. Discipline is moderate with Palmeiras averaging 1.2 yellow cards and LDU 1.75, suggesting a competitive but not overly aggressive match environment conducive to sustained attacks.

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Useful next reads

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Palmeiras1.6

Avg goals scored

LDU de Quito1.2

Palmeiras0.6

Avg goals conceded

LDU de Quito1

Palmeiras40%

BTTS rate

LDU de Quito40%

Palmeiras20%

Over 2.5 goals

LDU de Quito20%

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%

Check odds @ 2

Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Recent form shows both Palmeiras and LDU de Quito scoring and conceding regularly, with a 40% BTTS rate each. Despite a modest over 2.5 goals rate of 20%, the average 3.5 goals in their two head-to-head matches suggest open games where both teams find the net, supporting the BTTS selection.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

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LDU de Quito Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 30%

6.8

Check odds @ 6.8

LDU de Quito to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

Check odds @ 13

DrawBetfred guide price · model 26%

4.75

Check odds @ 4.75

Palmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · model 56%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

Palmeiras Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%

1.1

Check odds @ 1.1

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%

Check odds @ 2

The Both Teams to Score market is priced attractively with implying a 38.2% chance, well below the model's 56.7% probability, indicating clear value. This positive of 18.5% suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of both sides scoring, making it a favorable bet without price sensitivity concerns.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Palmeiras

WDWLW

Last 53W 1D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 104W 3D 1L

19 Aug 2026A Cerro Porteno1-0

12 Aug 2026H Cerro Porteno1-1

28 May 2026H Junior4-1

21 May 2026H Cerro Porteno0-1

05 May 2026A Sporting Cristal2-0

LDU de Quito

DDWWL

Last 52W 2D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 104W 2D 2L

20 Aug 2026H Mirassol0-0

13 Aug 2026A Mirassol1-1

26 May 2026H Always Ready3-2

21 May 2026H Lanus2-0

07 May 2026A Mirassol0-2

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts

3.5

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LDU de Quito Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 30%

6.8

Check odds @ 6.8

LDU de Quito to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

Check odds @ 13

Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 82%

1.04

Check odds @ 1.04

DrawBetfred guide price · model 26%

4.75

Check odds @ 4.75

Palmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · model 56%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

Palmeiras Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%

1.1

Check odds @ 1.1

Palmeiras have earned 10 points recently with 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, showing strong defense and effective attack. LDU de Quito have 8 points with 1.2 goals scored and 1 conceded, reflecting competitive form. Both teams' 40% BTTS rates align with the expectation of goals at both ends in this fixture.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Palmeiras wins

0Draws

1LDU de Quito wins

31 Oct 2025Palmeiras v LDU de Quito4-0

24 Oct 2025LDU de Quito v Palmeiras3-0

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

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LDU de Quito to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

Check odds @ 13

DrawBetfred guide price · model 26%

4.75

Check odds @ 4.75

Palmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · model 56%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%

Check odds @ 2

The two previous meetings between Palmeiras and LDU de Quito have produced an average of 3.5 goals per game, reflecting open contests with goals at both ends. While the sample is limited, this trend supports the expectation of both teams scoring, highlighting the attacking capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities present in these matchups.

Season team stats

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Palmeiras8

Played

LDU de Quito8

Palmeiras1.5

Avg goals for

LDU de Quito1.3

Palmeiras0.8

Avg goals against

LDU de Quito0.8

Palmeiras2

Clean sheets

LDU de Quito4

Best odds for this sectionLDU de Quito Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 30% vs implied 15% · edge +15 pts

6.8

Check odds @ 6.8

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LDU de Quito to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

Check odds @ 13

Palmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · model 56%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

Palmeiras Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%

1.1

Check odds @ 1.1

Season-long data reveals Palmeiras' strong defensive record conceding only 0.6 goals per game, paired with a potent attack averaging 1.6 goals. LDU de Quito maintain a balanced profile with 1.2 goals scored and 1 conceded per game. These stats support the likelihood of both teams scoring, as each side has shown ability to find the net while allowing chances.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
2	Palmeiras	11	6	3	2	1	5
1	LDU de Quito	12	6	4	0	2	3

Both teams lead their Libertadores group, with LDU de Quito first and Palmeiras second, separated by a single point. This close competition raises stakes and encourages offensive intent to secure top position, increasing the probability of both teams pushing forward and scoring in this pivotal match.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Palmeiras Over 2.5

20%LDU de Quito Over 2.5

3.5H2H avg goals

Over the last two head-to-head matches, an average of 3.5 goals were scored, indicating open and attacking games. Despite both teams having only a 20% over 2.5 goals rate recently, the high average goals in direct encounters suggest a tempo and style conducive to multiple goals and both teams scoring in this fixture.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Palmeiras v LDU de Quito Stats

Match Report

Both Teams to Score

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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LDU de Quito

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Palmeiras v LDU de Quito Stats

Match Report

Both Teams to Score

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Palmeiras

LDU de Quito

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