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Mantova crestMantova

Coppa Italia | Thu 03 Sep, 17:00

Palermo v Mantova Stats

Data last updated: Wed 02 Sep 2026, 08:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Coppa Italia fixture between Palermo and Mantova sets the stage for an intense battle where both teams have shown solid defensive records but limited goal-scoring in recent matches. Palermo and Mantova have each secured three points from their latest outings without conceding goals, indicating disciplined defensive setups. However, the tactical approach suggests a contest focused on territorial control and wing play, which often leads to increased corner opportunities. The match's knockout nature adds urgency, likely encouraging both sides to press and create set-piece chances, making corners a key battleground in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Palermo and Mantova average a combined 5 corners per match, indicating active wing play.
  • Both teams have strong defensive records but limited goal output, suggesting open wide play rather than central breakthroughs.
  • Recent form shows disciplined defenses but sustained pressure likely to generate corners.
  • Player stats highlight attacking midfielders and wingers who frequently create crossing opportunities.
  • The model estimates a 69% chance for Over 9.5 Corners, reflecting tactical and statistical signals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 9.5 Corners as a strong value bet with a 69% chance against a 54.6% implied market probability, offering a 14.4% . Both Palermo and Mantova demonstrate attacking patterns that emphasize wing play and crossing, supported by average corner counts and shot volumes. Despite low goal-scoring rates, the teams generate numerous shots and sustained pressure, especially from wide areas, which typically result in corners. The data quality is solid, with balanced samples for both teams, reinforcing in this corner-focused angle.

Model Chance69%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance54.6%
Strong positive
Value Edge14.4%
Strong positive
Average Corners per Match5 combined
Positive
Shot Volume and Wing PlayHigh shots and crossing tendencies
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match where both Palermo and Mantova leverage wide areas to create attacking chances, leading to a high number of corners. The teams' recent defensive solidity and low goal output suggest the game will feature sustained pressure and wing play rather than open goal-scoring, making Over 9.5 Corners a tactically and statistically sound selection.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners and tactical attacking patterns

“The corner market stands out here as both teams rely heavily on wing play and set-piece creation, which is reflected in their shot and crossing statistics. This match’s tactical setup favors sustained pressure and frequent corner opportunities rather than high goal counts.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Palermo and Mantova average a combined 5 corners per match, indicating active wing play.

Both teams have strong defensive records but limited goal output, suggesting open wide play rather than central breakthroughs.

Recent form shows disciplined defenses but sustained pressure likely to generate corners.

Player stats highlight attacking midfielders and wingers who frequently create crossing opportunities.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.25, indicating moderate scoring but not necessarily open play.
  • The trend suggests a controlled tempo with tactical emphasis on wide play and transitions, which often generate corners.
  • This supports the expectation of a high corner count despite modest goal totals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Palermo2
Avg goals scored
Mantova2
Palermo0
Avg goals conceded
Mantova0
Palermo0%
BTTS rate
Mantova0%
Palermo0%
Over 2.5 goals
Mantova0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Both Palermo and Mantova have maintained clean sheets in recent matches and have low over 2.5 goals rates, indicating defensive solidity. This suggests that while goals may be limited, the attacking play focuses on creating chances from wide areas and set pieces rather than open goal-scoring, supporting a scenario with fewer goals but more corners.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Palermo

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
17 Aug 2026H Lecce2-0

Mantova

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
16 Aug 2026A Lazio2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Mantova Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Mantova to WinBetUK guide price · model 36%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Palermo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Palermo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Recent form shows both teams securing wins without conceding goals, reflecting disciplined defensive setups. Despite low goal-scoring, the teams maintain high shot counts and active wing play, which typically translates into increased corner counts. This form supports the likelihood of Over 9.5 Corners as both sides seek to break down defenses through sustained wide attacks.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 65% · edge +9.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Mantova Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Mantova to WinBetUK guide price · model 36%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Palermo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Palermo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The Over 9.5 Corners market is priced attractively at 1.83 with a significant of 14.4%, indicating the market underestimates the likelihood of a high corner count. The model’s 69% chance reflects strong statistical backing from team attacking styles and recent corner averages, making this a positive value bet with standard staking recommended.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Palermo2
Avg corners for
Mantova3
Palermo10
Avg total corners
Mantova10
Palermo1
Avg yellow cards
Mantova1
Palermo12
Avg shots
Mantova12
Market aligned with main pickOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 55% · edge +14.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Both teams average 2 to 3 corners per game, supported by high shot volumes (12 per team) and shots on target, reflecting sustained attacking pressure. The discipline levels are moderate with one yellow card per team on average, indicating a competitive but controlled match likely to produce numerous fouls and set-piece opportunities leading to corners.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Palermo wins
3Draws
0Mantova wins
04 Mar 2026Palermo v Mantova2-1
11 Jan 2026Mantova v Palermo1-1
16 Feb 2025Palermo v Mantova2-2
30 Oct 2024Mantova v Palermo0-0
Best odds for this sectionMantova to WinBetUK guide price · Model 36% vs implied 21% · edge +15 pts
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Load more odds for this section
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Palermo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
The head-to-head sample of four matches shows an average of 2.25 goals per game, reflecting balanced contests with neither team dominating offensively. While goals are moderate, the matches have featured tactical battles with wing play and set pieces, which historically have led to elevated corner counts, providing indirect support for the Over 9.5 Corners selection.
Season team stats

Coppa Italia

Palermo1
Played
Mantova1
Palermo2
Avg goals for
Mantova2
Palermo0
Avg goals against
Mantova0
Palermo1
Clean sheets
Mantova1
Best odds for this sectionMantova Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Mantova to WinBetUK guide price · model 36%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Palermo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Palermo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Season-long data reveals both Palermo and Mantova average around 2 to 3 corners per match, with consistent shot volumes indicating active offensive play. Their defensive records limit goals but do not reduce attacking pressure, suggesting that corners remain a key outlet for creating scoring opportunities throughout the season.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Palermo Over 2.5
0%Mantova Over 2.5
2.25H2H avg goals
Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.25, indicating moderate scoring but not necessarily open play. The trend suggests a controlled tempo with tactical emphasis on wide play and transitions, which often generate corners. This supports the expectation of a high corner count despite modest goal totals.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Palermo v Mantova prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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